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INFO RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN PRIORITY 6892
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 7103
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY 6342
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 4993
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 7199
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 3963
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 2180
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C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 002525

SIPDIS

H PASS TO CODEL LIEBERMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR SY TU KWBG IS
SUBJECT: CODEL LIEBERMAN'S NOV 16 MEETING WITH PRIME
MINISTER NETANYAHU

Classified By: Ambassador James B. Cunningham, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)

¶1. (C) Summary. While in Israel participating in the Saban
Forum, CODEL Lieberman met with Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu on November 16 in Jerusalem. They discussed the
PM's recent meeting with President Obama in Washington,
restarting negotiations with the Palestinians, and regional
issues with Iran, Syria and Turkey. The PM cast the
Washington meeting with the President in a positive light and
expressed his appreciation for what he said was a frank and
honest meeting. The PM outlined the positive steps he
believed the GOI has taken in order to re-launch negotiations
and cast the Palestinian Authority as the recalcitrant party.
Specifically, he complained about their setting of
preconditions, Erekat's attempt to open a back channel
rather than formal talks, and their handling of the Goldstone
Report. Finally, the PM briefly discussed Iran, saying that
the "crunch time" was now. End Summary.

¶2. (SBU) The CODEL included Senator Joe Lieberman, Senator
Ted Kaufman, Senator Lindsey Graham, Chairwoman Nita Lowey,
Chairman Howard Berman, Representative Henry Waxman,
Representative Susan Davis, and Representative Jane Harman.
The Ambassador, Mrs. Lieberman, Mrs. Waxman, Dr. Harmon,
CODEL staffers, CODEL MilEscort, Ambassador's Staff Aide and
CONOFF (notetaker) also attended the meeting. Ari Harow, the
PM's Bureau Manager, and Mark Regev, Foreign Media Advisor,
joined on the Israeli side.

---------------------------------------
Recapping the Obama - Netanyahu meeting
---------------------------------------

¶3. (C) The PM briefly recapped his November 9 meeting with
President Obama in the White House, saying it had been the
best of their several discussions. The Prime Minister said
that early in the U.S. Presidential campaign he met with
then- Senator Obama in Washington, and had enjoyed a frank
and honest discussion. At that meeting Obama stated that
although people attach a lot of "ideological baggage" to the
PM and himself, both of them are pragmatic problem solvers.
At the conclusion, Netanyahu said he had predicted that
Senator Obama would win the general election. The PM
regretted that until November 9, their subsequent discussions
had not been of the same nature.

¶4. (C) The PM reported that the meeting with the President
was "open and honest." The Prime Minister was impressed by
how "unbelievably informed" the President was of the
situation in Israel. The PM reported that he had assured the
President that he was ready for negotiations, and serious
about reaching an agreement. He had relayed to the President
three specific steps that he had taken in the seven months
that he had been in office: 1) he endorsed the two-state
solution in his speech at Bar Ilan University; 2) he and his
government have eliminated more roadblocks and checkpoints in
the West Bank in seven months than have been removed since
the Second Intifada; and 3) his administration has taken
unprecedented steps on restraining the growth of settlements.
The PM stated that there are 2,600 units under construction
in existing settlements and 500 recently proposed new units.
He stated that after all these were complete, that they were
"prepared to stop - for a while" in order to support the
prospects for negotiations. He said that the rate of
construction was the "lowest it had been" and that they were
willing to "restrain" further growth. He also told the
President that he "can deliver the bulk of the Israeli
public." Finally, he said that he told the President that he
had "one and two" on board for negotiations, referring to
Israel and the US, but asked the President if he had "three"
- referring to the Palestinians.

-----------------------------------
Getting to Negotiations with the PA
-----------------------------------

¶5. (C) The PM expressed to the CODEL his frustration with the
Palestinian Authority. "What have they done?" he asked, and
then answered himself: "Precondition upon precondition." He
also stated that the Palestinians have tried to damage Israel


by using the Goldstone Report, which he described as an
"affront to truth and decency." Finally, he mentioned that
the Palestinians are now talking about a unilateral
declaration of statehood. (NOTE: The PM talked about
unilateral moves in his speech at the Saban Forum, but did
not say anything more about this in his meeting with the
CODEL. END NOTE.) The PM accused the Palestinians of using
"the stereotype that Netanyahu is a peace obstructionist."
The CODEL relayed that PA official Saeb Erekat stated in
their meeting with him that he "has gone to the Israelis
three times to negotiate and each time was told no." The PM
said that Erekat had requested a meeting with National
Security Adviser Uzi Arad three times, but these offers were
for back channel discussions "behind closed doors." The PM
does notQant to hold secret discussions via Erekat, but
rather a formal negotiating process. He added that the
Palestinians "have to decide what they want to do. They rely
on a reflexive response. They assumed that the U.S. will
deliver Israel. They have made conditions that cannot be
fulfilled by any Israeli government and they know that.
There is no legal way to stop ongoing construction nd they
know this but don't care. We want to neotiate; they don't."

¶6. (C) The PM suggested tw reasons why the Palestinian
Authority does not ant to negotiate: the "internecine
rivalries between Hamas and Fatah" and the prospect of
election. The PM acknowledged it is much easier to
negoiate after elections than before or during them. he PM
stated that "they have inflated expectatios about what the
U.S. will and will not do for them. So they go to the UN."

¶7. (C) Responding to several questions about Abbas, the PM
said that Abbas was sulking and that sulking is "not good
policy." He stated that the PA's stance on settlements was
illogical, and that he did not understand why a settlement
freeze has become a precondition when it had not been in the
past. Regarding the Fatah concerns about the release of
prisoners to Hamas, the PM said, "I used the release of
twenty women prisoners to get full validation of Shalit's
health." He stated that after he came into office, he
changed the team working on Shalit, brought in a German
mediator, and worked to get Hamas to provide Shalit on film
to prove he was alive. He thought the price of the tape was
"relatively inexpensive" with no political intention.

¶8. (C) The PM said that six months ago Fayyad initiated an
effort to have the International Criminal Court investigate
Israel for war crimes in Gaza. The PM said that he sent a
message to Abbas that this would kill the peace process.
Nonetheless, the Palestinians moved forward. Then came Abbas'
handling of the Goldstone Report. The PM noted that
Goldstone could result in Barak, Livni and Olmert being
treated as war criminals. "And Barak was just stopped in
London. No PM will agree to this. We will take risks for
peace but we won't be suckers for peace."

------------------------------------
A Kitchen Cabinet that Does Not Leak
------------------------------------

¶9. (C) The PM joked: "What is the difference between on and
off the record in Israel?" He paused then answered, "Two
weeks." He said there has been an exception: his inner
cabinet does not leak. He described his kitchen cabinet as a
group with widely diverse and passionately held views. He
said that despite this diversity and seeming division among
the cabinet members, they meet and discuss the issues, track
their thoughts on a low-tech white board and work to gain
consensus. He said it is a transparent process and the only
notes taken are on the erasable white board. He said that
while there is a difference as to where the group thinks a
negotiation will go, all agree that the government should
negotiate with the PA, and all but him agree that the best
Israel can get at this point is an interim agreement. "But I
am the sole dissenter. I believe we can bring a total
package, and prefer to go all the way." The PM said he told
President Obama, "Once you have confidence with what you are
going to do, we will do it." The PM concluded that he was
opposed to arguments for buying time, and assured the CODEL
he wants to get on with the peace process and dealing with

Iran.

-----------------------
Iran, Syria, and Turkey
-----------------------

¶10. (C) Turning to other regional issues, the PM stated that
"Assad says he wants to re-launch negotiations without
preconditions. Then he says we have plans to tear down
Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem." He questioned the bone fides
of Turkey as an intermediary between Syria and Israel,
suggesting that given Prime Minister Erdogan's rhetoric and
attacks on Israel in Turkey, Turkey's good faith is
questionable. He relayed that when Erdogan recently met with
Sudanese President Omar Bashir, a man charged with war
crimes, Erdogan reportedly had stated that he "would rather
meet with Bashir than with Netanyahu."

¶11. (C) Regarding Iran, the PM said that he told President
Obama that the crunch is now. Iran's failed elections changed
the regime's international image. "Ahmadinejad a man of the
people?" the PM asked rhetorically, "What people?" The PM
mentioned that the "exposure of the Qom facility" and the P-5
plus One offer on enriched uranium should serve to clarify
the situation. He said that the Iranians' response has been
confused, but that "the threat of sanctions hangs in the
air." (NOTE: This discussion was cut short as the CODEL
needed to depart for Senator Lieberman's chairing of a panel
at the Saban Forum. END NOTE)

¶12. (U) CODEL Lieberman's party has cleared this cable.
CUNNINGHAM

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9600
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0987

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000013

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/P, EAP/PD - THOMAS HAMM
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. BEEF IMPORTS

¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news
coverage January 1-4 on the New Year celebrations; on the
controversy over the U.S. beef issue and the discussions in the
Legislative Yuan over amendments to the law concerning U.S. beef
imports; and on cross-Strait relations.

¶2. Many editorials and commentaries continued to focus on the
controversy over U.S. beef imports. A column and two op-ed pieces
in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" continued to lambast the Ma
administration for opening Taiwan to imports of U.S. beef and beef
products. One op-ed said a referendum on U.S. beef imports will be
the only way that the Ma administration can resolve the controversy.
An editorial in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" said the U.S.
beef issue must not be turned into a tool to be used by the Ma
administration, the U.S. government or the arms dealers to
intimidate the Taiwan people, as the consequences will be
unfavorable for both Taiwan and the United States. Editorials in
the English-language "Taipei Times," "China Post," and "Taiwan News"
all discussed the U.S. beef issue and said no one is winner in the
"beef war." End summary.

A) "Dreading China and Fearing the United States? Taiwan Has Become
an Insignificant Person to Blame"

Washington correspondent Nadia Tsao wrote in the "Focus Commentary"
column in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation:
680,000] (1/1):

"... There are psychological and political factors behind Taiwan's
opposition to expanded imports of U.S. beef, yet the United States'
disappointment and anger [toward Taiwan's moves to bar the import of
certain U.S. beef products] are also reasonable and understandable.
But Taiwan officials' threatening [remarks] citing the visa-waiver
program, talks over the Free Trade Agreement and arms sales as
possible U.S. retaliatory means are nothing but foolish
interpretations lacking common sense in diplomacy. ... President Ma
Ying-jeou said not long ago that U.S.-Taiwan relations are in their
best state over the past six decades. How come a [simple] beef
dispute would turn Washington into some country like crazy
Pyongyang? It is true that Taiwan's failure to adhere to the
[U.S.-Taiwan beef] deal will damage the bilateral relationship,
particularly that with those U.S. congressmen who represent the
agriculturally-oriented states and are friendly with Taiwan. Taiwan
needs to communicate with the United States in an attempt to uncover
solutions that are acceptable for both sides. But the Ma
administration should stop 'bragging' when handling foreign
relations and should stick to the facts. U.S.-Taiwan relations have
always been complicated, so disputes and differences are
unavoidable. Conflicts provide the [best] moments for both sides to
test the strength of their relations and [their] crisis management
ability."

B) "Ma Must No Longer Remain Stubborn over the Referendum on U.S.
Beef [Imports]"

Bill Chang, a consultative member in the Taiwan Thinktank, opined in
the pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 680,000] (1/2):

"... As it stands now, [holding] a referendum [on U.S. beef imports]
will be the only way that the Ma administration can resolve the
issue and explain its position to the United States. If the
referendum is passed against the import of U.S. beef, no one can say
anything against it, and President Ma does not have to carry the
burden of being a party chairman unable to command the party's
legislators. Even if the United States decides to retaliate against
Taiwan over the referendum results, the responsibility will not fall
on President Ma, because it is a popular vote. With such an
approach, perhaps it will be easier to convince Washington and
alleviate the pressure from the United States. ... If the
referendum fails to pass, it will give the Legislative Yuan room to
modify its resolution. Now it all depends on whether President Ma
has the guts to hold the referendum."

C) "U.S. Beef Issue Exposes Fragility of Taiwan-U.S. Relations"

Liu Shih-chung, now a Visiting Fellow at the U.S.-based Brookings
Institution, opined in the pro-independence "Liberty Times"
[circulation 680,000] (1/3):

"The seemingly improved Taiwan-U.S. relations since the Ma Ying-jeou
administration assumed office have [changed to the extent that] they
may possibly endanger the progress on other issues that both sides
have been working on. [This is] due to the Ma administration's lack
of transparency during the policy-making process in opening Taiwan's
market to U.S. beef, offal and ground beef and its sending the wrong
message to Washington. ...What [National Security Council
Secretary-General] Su Chi failed to explain clearly to the Obama
administration was Ma's declining approval rate in Taiwan and the
Taiwan people's impatience with the Ma administration's black-box
[policy-making] operation model. Over the past few months, the
dilemma facing the Ma administration since Typhoon Morakot, the
legislative by-election in Yunlin County, the KMT's defeat in the
December three-in-one local elections, and a series of subtle
changes in Taiwan's politics have all added [up] to have a critical
impact on the decision to allow the import of U.S. beef. ...

"The Taiwan people want to ask the Ma administration: In contrast
to the ups and downs in Taiwan-U.S. relations under the previous DPP
administration, which twice announced the opening to imports of U.S.
beef (with beef offal and ground beef excluded), how come the Ma
administration, which brags that Taiwan-U.S. relations have never
been better, was unable to stick to the bottom line like the DPP
administration and, further, abandoned the defense of beef offal and
ground beef? The idea that the U.S. beef issue is just a single
accident, which will not affect the progress of other issues Taiwan
and the United States have been working on, underestimates the
fragility of Taiwan-U.S. relations. The Ma administration, since it
assumed office, has been doing all it can to curry favor with
Washington, and, as a result, it naturally deserves more immediate
policy returns in exchange. But the fact is just the opposite --
Taiwan lost even more bargaining chips and strength.

"The Pentagon's and National Security Council's proposed reports on
arms sales to Taiwan originally sat on Obama's desk, but the sudden
changes in the U.S. beef issue would surely result in the U.S. trade
agencies making proposals to the White House, which are unfavorable
for Taiwan. Perhaps the State Department is now mapping out its
retaliation list against Taiwan, and the gifts of arms deals for the
Ma administration, which were originally planned to be offered
before the Lunar New Year, will likely be halted; key figures in the
trade agencies, who originally planned to visit Taiwan, will likely
cancel [their trips.] Ma should be ready to offer a good
explanation to the United States when he transits the West Coast of
the United States at the end of January."

D) "Who Is Intimidating Taiwan?"

The mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 520,000]
editorialized (1/4):

"... There are plenty of tools in the U.S. diplomatic toolbox, which
Washington can easily grab to deal with Taiwan, such as adjustments
in high-level visits, treatment for the Taiwan president when
transiting the United States, the decision over whether to help
Taiwan participate in international organizations where statehood is
not a requirement, including Taiwan in the trade dumping list,
stopping or slowing down the Taiwan-U.S. Trade and Investment
Framework talks. It doesn't even have to get to the security level.
But if Washington treats Taiwan as a target for threatening and
retaliation, such as stopping its arms sales to Taiwan, or keeping a
hands-off attitude toward the 'Taiwan Relations Act (TRA),' or
gradually push for the abolishment of the TRA, this will not only
harm the bilateral interests of Taiwan and the United States in East
Asia but will also incite Taiwan's nationalism to the extent of
pushing the island to declare independence or [seek] unification
with China out of desperation. ... None of these will serve the
United States' interests. As a result, the U.S. beef issue must not
turn into a tool used by the Ma administration, the U.S.
administration or the arms dealers to intimidate the Taiwan people,
as the consequences will be unfavorable for both Taiwan and the
United States."

E) "Beef Spat Mustn't Harm US Relations"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation:
30,000] editorialized (1/4):

"The controversy over imports of US beef is a typical example of a
storm in a tea cup. Thanks to the government's neglect of public
opinion, inability to implement party discipline and persuade the
legislature, what was originally one of many items on the US-Taiwan
trade talk agenda has created a backlash and prompted a strongly
worded US statement warning Taiwan not to break the agreement.
US-Taiwan tensions have now developed into a full-blown political
storm. Taiwan still hasn't made a final decision on the issue, nor
has the US decided how to respond, but the administration of
President Ma Ying-jeou has made several guesses at what the US
measures might be. These include delaying a bilateral trade and
investment framework agreement, delaying an arms deal and suspending
talks about visa exemptions for Republic of China citizens. The
situation has caused the government to fear changes to the Taiwan-US
strategic relationship.

"Although the legislature is planning to amend the Act Governing
Food Sanitation to ban the importation of US beef innards and
ground beef, this only makes up a small part of US beef imports. It
will have a minor impact on import volumes and value, but could help
improve public acceptance of US beef, which is a lot better than
possible boycotts and stagnant sales because of quality concerns and
consumer fears. The US government should take a hard look at what is
the better alternative for US beef farmers. ... The beef
controversy must not be allowed to affect the US-Taiwan alliance and
Washington should consider the wisdom of pushing Taiwan, an
important strategic bargaining chip for the US, closer toward a
China that is about to become a great power."

F) "Beef Debacle Is Ma's Opportunity"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation:
30,000] editorialized (1/1):

"...The US has now issued a strong response. Failure to resolve the
issue might have an impact on - Taiwan-US trade and economic ties,
visa exemptions for Taiwanese and possibly, in some way, more
serious concerns such as defense. The Chinese Nationalist Party
(KMT) may hold three-quarters of all legislative seats, but the
outcome of legislative negotiations has resulted in stronger
controls on US beef imports, overturning the original protocol. This
is tantamount to rebellion and means the legislature is drawing a
line in the sand, while also dealing Su a sucker punch. However,
President Ma Ying-jeou will suffer most - with the situation
spinning out of control, his authority as a leader will be dealt a
severe blow. Ma pays a great deal of attention to his image and
stresses the importance of communication and compromise, but shows a
glaring lack of skill in both. ...

"The US beef issue has resulted in a huge political hiccup, but Su's
highhanded manner is causing widespread discontent, even within the
blue camp. When the government gave the green light to US beef
imports, Minister of Health Yaung Chih-liang almost resigned. The
legislature was not informed in advance, was not consulted during
negotiations, and after the signing, was required to support the
decision. Neither the opposition nor the pan-blue camp was willing
to endorse the protocol and once the public protested, they went on
the attack. Had the NSC conducted a comprehensive assessment prior
to its decision, it would have produced a report to persuade the
public and legislature and allay concerns. The decision to fully
relax restrictions on US beef imports was not based on an expert
assessment, which highlights the NSC's incompetence. The controversy
is a longstanding one and if Su was not aware of its seriousness,
then he was negligent. ... The government's weak response to Typhoon
Morakot was a wake-up call for Ma after his presidential election
victory, while the KMT setback in recent local elections created a
sense of urgency. This is the chance Ma needs to carry out
wide-scale party reform. The legislature has moved against the beef
protocol and Ma has lost face at home and abroad. The only way for
him to turn things around is to learn his lessons. Otherwise,
cross-strait talks on an economic pact with China will prove to be
another disaster."

G) "Everybody Is a Loser in the 'Beef War'"

The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post"
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (1/1):

"Lawmakers are getting ready to vote on and pass an amendment to the
Food Sanitation Act next Tuesday to ban ground beef and bovine offal
imports from the United States. But that isn't going to end the beef
war across the Pacific, and everybody loses in the fight over the
issue which shouldn't be an issue in the first place. ... The
government is the biggest loser in the ongoing war. President Ma
Ying-jeou is sending a delegation to Washington to mend fences after
the U.S. government expressed deep concern over the expected passage
of the amendment to the act. ... The warning is being heeded, of
course. But the damage has been done. There is no way to prevent the
railroading of the amendment albeit Ma's Kuomintang (KMT) controls a
virtual three-fourths majority in the Legislative Yuan. The
Americans are losing the beef war because they started it at the
wrong time. Negotiations for the protocol had gone on for two years
and there was no reason whatsoever for Washington not to wait
another month or so to conclude it with Taipei after Taiwan's
all-important local elections were over. The opposition Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP), champing at the bit to win the elections on
Dec. 5 in order to prove it is beginning to claw back to power,
jumped at the godsend opportunity to turn a non-issue into an issue
of "life or death" of the people, about whose well-being they claim
the KMT government simply cares less. It's a non-issue because by
far the great majority of people in Taiwan do not eat beef and they
do not care whether bovine products are imported or not from
anywhere in the world. Younger people take to hamburgers, but they
can choose those made from ground beef imported from countries other
than the U.S. The protocol does not compel the government to force
the beef-lovers to consume American steaks.
The fence-mending isn't likely to work. The administration is
bracing for retaliation after it failed to avert the crisis by
convincing the doubtful people that U.S. ground beef and offal are
safe to eat. ... Ma's loss is just as serious. ... The people of
Taiwan also lose. They appear as unreasonable supporters of
narrow-minded political agitators who are accusing the U.S. of
attempting to bully Taiwan into buying unwanted beef products. Their
image as friends of the U.S. is tarnished. Once tarnished, it's very
hard to burnish. If trade between Taiwan and the U.S. dwindles as a
result of the beef war, all the people of Taiwan will equally suffer
the consequence. And the chief culprit is the legislative branch of
the government. Lawmakers have sacrificed Taiwan's credibility as a
trustworthy trading partner the world over by flexing their muscles
to get even with what they believe is the clumsy but arrogant
administration. What price their demonstration of power!"
H) "U.S. Should Understand Taiwan's Beef Stand"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation:
20,000] editorialized (1/4):

"United States government officials have expressed exasperation over
why Taiwan's Legislative Yuan may revise the Food Sanitation Act
Tuesday to ban imports of U.S. ground beef, offals or even beef in
bone. Senior officials of President Ma Ying-jeou's right-wing
Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) government have publically
speculated that U.S. President Barack Obama's Democratic Party
administration will retaliate against Taiwan's alleged 'unilateral
abrogation' of the protocol signed Oct. 22 by Taiwan Economic and
Culture Representative Office and American Institute in Taiwan to
reopen imports of these risky US beef through delaying talks on a
long-expected U.S.-Taiwan Trade and Investment Framework Agreement
(TIFA) or even by further delays in defensive arms sales. Such
ill-disguised threats aim to blur the truth that this fiasco has
been caused solely by the hubris and incompetence of President Ma
Ying-jeou's right-wing Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) and
its refusal to respect Taiwan's democratic values of transparency
and accountability in the negotiation of this secret pact. ...

"Nevertheless, the U.S. government should react to the Legislative
Yuan's action cautiously based on mutual respect for democratic
procedures. Washington should refrain from pretending that the BSE
concerns are a 'false issue' or using the TIFA talks or defensive
arms sales to pressure the Taiwan legislature to accept a secret
protocol, whose full content remains unknown even to KMT lawmakers.
Instead, the Obama administration should convene an inter-agency
meeting to consider methods to resolve the flap, preferably through
renegotiation with the Taiwan government in a manner consistent with
democratic procedures. For its part, the Ma administration should
work to prevent any broader impact on other aspects of U.S.-Taiwan
relations.

"Ma has publically claimed that his efforts to forge peace and
dialogue with the PRC regime has also led to the 'best U.S.-Taiwan
relations for the past 60 years.' If this is the case, Ma's KMT
administration should have accumulated enough political capital to
persuade Washington not to make any unfriendly gestures toward
Taiwan and to renegotiate the pact. We strongly urge the Ma
government to stand upright in talks with U.S. counterparts and
refrain from repeating the mistake of carrying out such talks behind
the backs of Taiwan lawmakers and citizens and instead publically
affirm his commitment to reflect Taiwan's pluralist views in new
beef import talks. Most importantly, Ma should demonstrate his
sincerity to correct his mistakes by requiring Su to resign to take
full political responsibility. ... What Taiwan needs now is a
national security advisor who respects Taiwan's democratic values
and principles."

STANTON

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2479
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 003423

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM AF
SUBJECT: AFGHANS WITH CODEL BURR ON ELECTIONS, SECURITY,
AND THE FUTURE

Classified By: Political Counselor Annie Pforzheimer, reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).

¶1. (S) Summary: CODEL Burr discussed the second round
elections and U.S. strategy in Afghanistan with a small group
of senior Afghan officials over dinner on October 24.
Following a discussion of whether Abdullah will withdraw his
candidacy, the focus of the conversation shifted to the U.S.
strategy in Afghanistan. The Senators explained the economic
and political context surrounding the discussion of
Afghanistan in the United States, elaborating on the effect
the U.S. economic crisis and 2010 elections have on our
Afghanistan policy. NDS Director Saleh, Director of the
Independent Directorate of Local Governance Popal, and upper
house speaker Gailani then detailed the role Pakistan plays
in destabilizing Afghanistan, and urged the United States to
focus on strengthening the Afghan-Pakistani relationship and
stopped terrorism within Pakistan's borders. Following an
in-depth discussion of improving security in Afghanistan,
Popal outlined his strategy for improving governance at the
subnational level, which he deemed "the real key" to success
in Afghanistan. Both Afghan and U.S. officials at the dinner
agreed that Afghanistan and the United States need
coordinated efforts and mutual goals to achieve success in
Afghanistan. End Summary.

--------------------------------------------- -------
Deal or No Deal: Will Abdullah Go for a Second Round?
--------------------------------------------- -------

¶2. (S) According to NDS Director Saleh, Abdullah will not
give a simple "yes" or "no" answer to the question of whether
he will withdraw from a run-off. "It's like a game show,
where you've answered one question correctly, and now you can
either take your 'win' and go home, or risk it all to answer
the last question," Saleh said of Abdullah's pending decision
to bargain or continue towards a second round. Abudullah is
not looking for a secret, behind-the-scenes deal, but rather
prefers clarity with his high-level Afghan and international
interlocutors. Saleh continued, "he wants more prominent
people to talk with him: the UN, Embassy leaders, elders,
everyone." He predicted Abdullah would make a decision
shortly and assessed "all of Abdullah's options" as "coming
to a dead end." He specified Abdullah's suggestion to
replace the top four IEC officials as one dead-end option due
to the time restraints of the second round. When Senator
Burr suggested Abdullah announce: "I am not going to force
this to a run-off, because it is not in the best interest of
the people," Saleh countered that that is Abdullah's last
card, and he will not play it easily.

¶3. (S) Jelani Popal, Director of the Independent Directorate
of Local Governance, suggested that Abdullah could stay
outside the government and "fill a vacuum of political
parties and political institutions." He praised Abdullah's
ability to motivate young people during the first campaign
period, and suggested he "take it to a different level" in
the months to come. Popal predicted Karzai will easily win
the second round, implying that Abdullah's efforts to build a
political party do not need to be part of a run-off campaign,
but could be done to balance a Karzai government.

¶4. (S) Hamid Gailani, deputy speaker of the upper house and
Karzai confidant, agreed with Saleh that an Abdullah
announcement to back out of the second round must come in the
next 48 hours. He said that while Karzai is gearing up for a
second round, he would also be amenable to reaching an
alternative solution through "discussions" with Abdullah.

--------------------------------------------- -------
Face to Face: The U.S. and Afghan Political Contexts
--------------------------------------------- -------

¶5. (S) Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) opened a discussion on
the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan by explaining the U.S.
political context in which discussions on Afghanistan are
occurring: an ongoing financial crisis; continued rising
unemployment; and preparations for the 2010 Congressional
elections. He told the Afghans around the table that "it is
time to determine our priorities. We need to tell our
partners we are not going to have the same resources in the
future." In order to ensure an ongoing U.S. commitment, we
must have: the right strategy; an improved partnership
between Afghanistan and the United States; and a shared end
goal of a stable Afghanistan able to support and secure
itself once U.S. forces leave.

¶6. (S) Saleh explained to the Senators that most Afghans
cannot comprehend that U.S. goals are "just to defeat Al
Qaeda and build a stable Afghanistan." He noted that one of
the greatest challenges will be managing Afghan expectations.
Saleh said U.S. officials spent 6 years telling Afghans "we

KABUL 00003423 002 OF 003


are here to make an Afghanistan you can't imagine." But
without dealing with Pakistan, the United States will never
be able to move forward on its promises to Afghanistan.
Saleh was particularly concerned that recent peace deals
signed by Pakistani commanders who were previously on "the
CIA's list to kill" have caused Afghans to lose trust in the
U.S. commitment to the region. He highlighted the need for
Afghanistan to improve its intelligence in Pakistan and track
money that could fund terrorists moving across the border.
He argued that Afghanistan cannot face terrorism in Pakistan
on its own. According to Saleh, Afghans "need to see the
U.S. hitting Pakistan hard" to believe that the United States
is truly committed to eliminating terrorism in the region.

¶7. (S) Ambassador Eikenberry agreed with Saleh that Pakistan
plays a major role in ensuring Afghanistan's stability and
noted that attacks in Kabul are frequently coordinated by the
Haqqani network in Pakistan. Saleh reponded that one reason
Pakistan is reluctant to counter terrorism along the Afghan
border is that "they are not feeling the heat" and have no
incentive to stop killing international security forces.
Popal was more forceful, saying Pakistan "needs to be warned
that they will be bombed to the ground" if they do not
cooperate. He recommended the international community
"address the Punjabi elite," and then work to empower the
Pakistani people to take control of their own government.

¶8. (S) Gailani agreed that Afghans will not understand "a
military surge without political context." He advised the
international community to "put maximum effort on reducing
misunderstanding between Pakistani and Afghan leadership.
Pakistan's fear of disrupting the balance needs to be
addressed. Only then will they reduce sanctuaries."

--------------------------------------------
Reaching the People: Sub-national Government
--------------------------------------------

¶9. (S) Popal pointed out that the real key to a successful
strategy in Afghanistan is progress at the often-ignored
district level. He called for "an integrated approach to
governance" which would take into account security and
development, and added "even with 1 million ANA and ANP,"
without a viable social contract Afghans will not trust their
government. Popal also recommended strengthening the Civil
Service Commission at the district level, which would empower
district institutions beyond the police chief and district
governor. He explained that district judges, census bureaus,
departments of agriculture, and similar institutions need to
be given incentives to improve and attract capable staff.
Provincial Councils, district councils, and village councils,
which either serve an advisory function or have yet to be
created, need to be given administrative capacity-building in
order to further progress on the sub-national level.

------------------------------
Past Progress, Future Strategy
------------------------------

¶10. (S) NSA Rassoul offered a more positive assessment of
Afghanistan's progress. Rassoul disagreed with an early
statement by Gailani that "after eight years we are still
square one." He argued that "great things have been
achieved" since 2002, and listed roads, schools, and the
recent elections as examples of "the kind of institutions and
democracy" that Afghanistan never had before. He recognized
that Afghans need to "adjust to the new situation" in the
United States and "produce tangible results quickly."
According to Rassoul, good governance, the fight against
corruption, and counter-narcotics are areas for improvement
that the United States and the Afghan people agree on. He
expressed support for increasing the capacity of the ANSF:
"the more Afghan boots on the ground, the fewer casualties,"
since Afghan troops understand the terrain and village
dynamics. Rassoul stressed that "even if Afghanistan becomes
stable," the country will still want a long-term, strategic
relationship with the United States."

----------------------------
U.S. Support for Afghanistan
----------------------------

¶11. (S) Ambassador Eikenberry underscored the importance of
straightforward dialogue between the United States and
Afghanistan, and called the current dialogue "truly
unprecedented," and a "good foundation for moving forward."
He also supported Gailani's earlier call to provide a
political context for any increase in troops. After
listening to Afghan advice for the U.S. strategy, Senator
Burr shared his major take-away from his time in Kabul:
"Afghanistan could be independent, both from security and
economic standpoints." Emphasizing the U.S.-Afghan friendship

KABUL 00003423 003 OF 003

and shared interests, he told the officials that "this is
when we need to be the most open and honest about how we
proceed." He called for coordinated efforts and realized
investments in Afghanistan, as success in Afghanistan "is in
the best long-term interest of the global community and the
Afghan people."

¶12. (S) Senator Whitehouse used three common U.S. sayings to
advise the Afghans on how to win the support of the American
people. He told them Americans "root for the underdogs" so
Afghans should make the case that their brave fighters in the
mountains are the reason the Cold War ended. "Everybody
loves a winner," in the United States, so Afghans should
define a joint purpose with the United States to "show that
they are winners." And finally "don't be a sucker." If
corruption persists or the United States sees its investment
in Afghanistan go to waste, the Afghans will lose U.S.
support. "We are generous until we think we are being
played," he advised the Afghans.

¶13. (U) CODEL Burr was not able to clear this cable.

EIKENBERRY

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

VZCZCXRO4446
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHHK #1947/01 2930947
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 200947Z OCT 09
FM AMCONSUL HONG KONG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8773
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 001947

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/CM; ALSO FOR DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM CH HK
SUBJECT: LSD MASTER PLAN FOR POLITICAL REFORM: ONE BANANA
AT A TIME

REF: (A) HONG KONG 1931 (B) HONG KONG 1918

Classified By: Acting Consul General Christopher Marut for reasons 1.4(
b) and (d).

¶1. (C) Summary: Although their latest antics in the
Legislative Council (LegCo) chamber are receiving tepid
reviews even from their allies, the League of Social
Democrats (LSD) insists their extremism will spur Beijing to
negotiate with the more moderate pan-democrats on
constitutional reform. LSD legislator Leung "Long Hair"
Kwok-hung believes Beijing would actually like to see the
Civic Party become the leaders of the pan-democratic
movement, since they focus on Hong Kong and do not support
democratic activists on the Mainland like many Democratic
Party (DPHK) leaders do. Leung contends Beijing has a role
in the current Kam Nai-wai sexual harassment scandal (ref B),
and wants to signal to other pan-democrats that it holds
files on their peccadilloes. Leung also alleges that the PRC
and Next Media mogul and nominal Beijing arch-enemy Jimmy Lai
Chee-ying are allies of convenience in Taiwan, by which Leung
explains pro-democracy Apple Daily's lavish coverage of the
Kam scandal. End Summary.

¶2. (C) Comment: For all his Che Guevara affectations and
puerile behavior in and out of LegCo, one-on-one Leung is a
thoughtful interlocutor with a broad political perspective.
That does not necessarily make his judgments correct, and we
assume he is "attempting to influence as well as inform" when
speaking with us. In particular, Leung's comments about the
other parties in the pan-democratic caucus should be caveated
by his admission that he is not in regular contact with
either the Civics (who detest the LSD) or the DPHK (who may
not like his LegCo antics, but whose senior members have
shared the barricades with him on other human rights issues
for years.) We see a grain of truth in his assessment of
Beijing, however, and therefore offer his observations to
round out the analytical picture for Washington consumers.
End Comment.

---------------------
Bananas Break the Ice
---------------------

¶3. (C) League of Social Democrats (LSD) legislator Leung
"Long Hair" Kwok-hung declared victory following two days of
(stuffed) banana-throwing and insult-hurling during Chief
Executive Donald Tsang's annual Policy Address October 14 and
follow-on question session with the Legislative Council
(LegCo) October 15. The LSD were ejected from LegCo nine
minutes into the Policy Address, but managed to last an hour
into the ninety-minute question session. Never shy of drama,
they brandished a range of props including a fake skeleton to
excoriate the Chief Executive for his lack of substantive
initiatives on constitutional reform and poverty alleviation.
Leung argued that the LSD's antics will spur a two-pronged
approach to negotiations with the Democratic Party (DPHK) and
the Civic Party. The less important overtures will be from
the Tsang Administration, which Leung believes wants to
demonstrate it has things under control, but cannot actually
do a deal.

¶4. (C) The more important initiative comes from Beijing,
probably through intermediaries. Leung tips LegCo President
Jasper Tsang Yok-sing as a key player in this process. On
one side, Leung has no doubt Tsang is both a Communist Party
member and has considerable influence in Beijing. On the
other, Tsang has considerable credibility among the
pan-democrats. Should initial overtures prove fruitful,
Leung expects Tsang would be asked to bring a delegation of
pan-democrats (not including the LSD) to visit Guangzhou or
even Beijing for more detailed discussions.

¶5. (C) Leung also told us he thought Beijing would be
happiest with the Civics at the head of the pan-democratic
movement. In addition to being moderate (at least compared
to the LSD), the Civics' leadership are not involved with
organizations that support democratic movements on the
Mainland, as are key members of the DPHK.

-------------------------------
Responsible Opposing Viewpoints
-------------------------------

¶6. (C) If Leung thinks he has done the other pan-democrats a
favor, he will be waiting some time for thanks. DPHK's Fred
Li Wah-ming deplored the LSD's shenanigans at the question
session as a waste of time. Li thinks LSD chairman Raymond
"Mad Dog" Wong Yuk-man's behavior at LegCo -- hurling aside
one of the DPHK's protest placards and otherwise bad-mouthing

HONG KONG 00001947 002 OF 002


them -- has widened the gap with the other pan-democrats.
The Confederation of Trade Unions' Lee Cheuk-yan dismissed
the LSD's performance as more evidence that they are "crazy."

-----------------------------
Sucker's Bet or Sucker Punch?
-----------------------------

¶7. (C) We asked Leung whether, having made such efforts to
bring Beijing and the other pan-dems together, there was any
compromise the two sides might reach that the LSD would
accept, and he said no. Therefore, should the DPHK and the
Civics be concerned that the LSD would watch from the
sidelines as they hammered out a deal, then condemn them for
breaking faith on democracy? Without saying they wouldn't do
such a thing, Leung admitted the LSD could find themselves on
the wrong side of public opinion should the others strike a
deal with Beijing the people of Hong Kong supported.

---------------------------------------
Kam-gate, As Seen From the Grassy Knoll
---------------------------------------

¶8. (C) In Leung's eyes, embattled DPHK legislator Kam
Nai-wai, who faces censure in LegCo over allegations of
sexual harassment (ref B), is the proverbial chicken killed
to scare the monkeys. While not suggesting they set up the
scandal, Leung nevertheless thinks Beijing is fueling the
fire. Beijing keeps files on everyone, Leung asserted, and
they want to remind people they have the means to destroy
reputations. In particular, Leung (strictly protect)
asserted Kam's trouble was a message to the Civics' Ronny
Tong Ka-wah, whom Leung believes has skeletons in his closet.
Leung therefore took Tong's public critique of the Civics'
by-election-as-referendum plan as his caving in to pressure
from Beijing.

¶9. (C) More far-fetched sounding was Leung's assertion that
pro-democracy (and rabidly anti-Beijing) Apple Daily's three
days of front-page coverage of the Kam scandal was at the
behest of Beijing. Leung claims Jimmy Lai Chee-ying, whose
Next Media publishes Apple Daily, formed an alliance of
convenience with Beijing to enter the Taiwan media market
years ago. Beijing had wanted a media mouthpiece in Taiwan,
Leung explained, but could not acquire one directly.
Therefore, Leung suggested the PRC in some way supported
Lai's Next Media in its foray into the Taiwan market, and
Next Media launched a years-long tirade against Chen
Shui-bian in return. (Comment: No one here has heard any
such rumor, and it suggests more to us that "LSD" is not
merely an acronym for Leung. However, Apple Daily's seeming
relish for battering Kam has raised eyebrows elsewhere in the
pan-democratic camp. While no one disputes Apple Daily's
predilection for using scandal to shift papers, three days on
the front page was seen as excessive. End Comment.)

---------------------
Vote Early, Not Often
---------------------

¶10. (C) Despite currently rocky relations among the
pan-democrats, Leung continues to believe they can come
together for the five-member by-election-as-referendum and
that they can unite the Hong Kong people behind the single
issue of universal suffrage. Unlike the Civics, however, the
LSD wants to go to the ballot box now, so as to have a clear
demonstration of strength before entering negotiations on
constitutional reform. (Note: The Civics, by contrast,
regard the referendum as an escalation to be employed should
negotiations fail. End Note.) Leung admits that, if Kam is
forced to resign, the referendum is probably dead -- "we
can't go to the polls twice." The LSD, therefore, will back
Kam staying in LegCo. Leung firmly believes there is no
evidence to support a finding of wrong-doing against Kam, and
seems equally firm in discounting that Kam might not need to
be found guilty to be forced to step down.
MARUT

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

VZCZCXYZ0029
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTV #2196/01 2791022
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RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 6871
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY 6117
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 4753
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 6964
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 3741
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1956
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT PRIORITY 0623
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 8140
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH PRIORITY 3149
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 7129
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 9192
RUEHJI/AMCONSUL JEDDAH PRIORITY 1952
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM PRIORITY 2920
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RHMFISS/COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/COMSIXTHFLT PRIORITY

UNCLAS TEL AVIV 002196

STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD

WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM
NSC FOR NEA STAFF

SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA
HQ USAF FOR XOXX
DA WASHDC FOR SASA
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR PA
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL FOR POLAD/USIA ADVISOR
COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD
COMSIXTHFLT FOR 019

JERUSALEM ALSO ICD
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL
PARIS ALSO FOR POL
ROME FOR MFO

SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS

SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION

--------------------------------
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT:
--------------------------------

¶1. Mideast

¶2. Iran

-------------------------
Key stories in the media:
-------------------------

All media emphasized the continued violence around the Temple Mount
in Jerusalem. Clashes continued yesterday between Palestinian
demonstrators and security forces. One Israeli soldier was stabbed
and the number of people detained since the start of the latest
disturbances reached 50. HaQaretz reported that sources close to
the situation told the newspaper that the U.S. and Jordan are trying
to ease the tensions surrounding the Temple Mount area, with Jordan
asking Israel to prevent the entry of Jews and tourists to the site
until the situation calms down. HaQaretz reported that Israel, the
PA, and the Waqf Muslim authority will hold talks on rules for
visiting the site until the crisis eases. Yediot cited a Shin Bet
warning that the PA has embarked on a takeover of East Jerusalem for
the past few months. Yediot and other media reported the PA has
injected millions of dollars to strengthen East JerusalemQs economic
infrastructure with effective Palestinian supervision. Speaking on
Israel Radio this morning, Vice PM Silvan Shalom called on the
government to outlaw the Islamic Movement and arrest the leader of
its northern branch Sheikh Raed Salah and his deputy, Kamal Khatib.

The media reported that thousands of people demonstrated against
Israel in Istanbul in support of the Palestinians at the Temple
Mount.

Israel Hayom reported that official spokesmen at the Prime
MinisterQs Office and at the Foreign Ministry have clarified that
the postponement of the vote at the U.N Human Rights Council that
would have endorsed the Goldstone Report was the result of massive
diplomatic pressure on the U.S., Russia, France, Germany, the U.S.,
and others by Israel. HaQaretz and other media reported that
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is facing unusually harsh
criticism from within Fatah and other Palestinian groups for his
decision last week to withdraw the draft document. HaQaretz
reported that a few hundred protesters demonstrated in Ramallah

yesterday against the PAQs decision to delay endorsing the Goldstone
report.

The Jerusalem Post and other media reported that the Obama
administration has cautiously welcomed the Iranian gestures coming
out of the talks over its nuclear program last week, saying they are
a "constructive beginning" even if much more work is needed and
progress cannot be taken for granted. However, The Jerusalem Post
said that many Washington hands are warning that the key factor
behind IranQs more cooperative approach has been a shift in
America's posture rather than in Tehran's. The Jerusalem Post
quoted Ilan Mizrachi, a former head of IsraelQs National Security
Council and deputy head of the Mossad, as saying that Israel would
not be able to oppose a deal under which IranQs uranium is enriched
in Russia. Yediot reported that the notion of Russian enrichment of
uranium for Iran was an Israeli idea raised by Shaul MofazQs team in
its strategic dialogue at the end of President BushQs term, and
cited concern that Iran will breach the agreement. MaarivQs Web
site NRG reported that ahead of the large-scale IDF-U.S. Army aerial
defense exercise that will simulate a missile attack from Iran, 15
missile boats, cargo planes, and aerial defense systems have arrived
in Israel. A senior Israeli defense source was quoted as saying:
QSoon an American officer of the rank of general will arrive,
attesting to the importance of the drill. This is a clear message to
Iran.

Maariv reported that the Kadima and Yisrael Beiteinu parties are
cooperating to change the Israeli political system through the
mediation of politician Haim Ramon: they will reportedly draft an
initiative to strengthen the status of the prime minister and they
intend to have a bill to this effect passed with the support of
Likud and Labor Knesset members. The newspaper cited LikudQs anger
over the move and Avigdor LiebermanQs cooperation with the
opposition.

The Jerusalem Post reported that an archeological project funded by
a Jewish-Ukrainian philanthropist made possible the rehabilitation
of a Second Jewish Temple-era hall that was recently unearthed in
the Western Wall tunnels. All media cited the newly uncovered
areas.

HaQaretz and The Jerusalem Post cited a Peace Now investigation
reporting that 800 housing units in 34 West Bank settlements are in
early development stages and 100 are already under construction.
According to the organization, settlement movement leaders are
rushing to begin construction in as many places as possible, so that
when a construction freeze as ordered these locations are not
affected. Peace Now said that merely not issuing new permits wasn't
enough and that a direct order banning all new construction was
needed. Media quoted right-wing figures as saying that Peace Now is
a QtreacherousQ group or a "foreign agent."

The Jerusalem Post reported that Palestinian schoolchildren in
U.N.-run schools may soon learn about the Holocaust as part of a new
curriculum on human rights that is being developed by the U.N Relief
and Works Agency (UNRWA). The newspaper reported that UNRWA is
pushing forward with the curriculum despite Palestinian opposition.

Leading media reported that yesterday a court in Azerbaijan
sentenced a group of militant Islamists, including two Lebanese men,
to between 12 and 15 years in jail for plotting attacks on the
Israeli and U.S. embassies in Baku. A spokesman for the court said
the group was linked to Hizbullah, al-Qaida, and the Iranian
security services.

All media reported that on Sunday unknown people vandalized the
southern archaeological park of Avdat. Yesterday police arrested
two Negev Bedouin in relation with this act. Leading media reported
that they are suspected of destroying the site as revenge for the
recent demolition of homes in the area. The media reported that
the perpetrators may have causedwhat one high-ranking preservation
official called "unparalleled damage" to the site. Avdat's
archaeological section was recognized by UNESCO as a Heritage Site
four years ago.

HaQaretz reported that FM Avigdor Lieberman has withdrawn his
nominee for the position of Israel's ambassador to Cairo. Lieberman
had planned to appoint his close Yisrael Beiteinu associate, Col.
Shaul Kamisa. The idea was criticized across the board both inside
and outside the Foreign Ministry and a few days ago the candidacy
was shelved. The Jerusalem Post reported that some Foreign Ministry
diplomats are upset at FM Avigdor LiebermanQs decision to appoint
former Mossad man Reuven Dinal as ambassador to Turkmenistan.

The media pin hopes on Israeli candidates for Nobel Prizes: Yakir
Aharonov (Physics) and Amos Oz (Literature).

------------
¶1. Mideast:
------------

Block Quotes:
-------------

¶I. "Obama Is No Sucker"

Senior op-ed writer Akiva Eldar commented in the independent,
left-leaning Ha'aretz (10/6): QA report of the planned presence [of
Netanyahu] at the volatile site of Silwan in East Jerusalem] reached
Washington, and the order came to cancel the event with lightning
speed.... A senior person from the National Security Council at the
White House recently told Jewish leaders that Obama had mustered all
his charm to convince Arab leaders to offer Netanyahu a series of
gestures. It all ended, said the official, when the Prime Minister
decided to approve construction of 450 housing units in the West
Bank. The President, to put it mildly, was not amused.

II. "Third Intifada?"

The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized (10/6):
QIsraeli authorities foster coexistence and maintain free access to
the holy sites. Palestinian factions, by contrast, want just the
opposite. Jews do not deny the religious significance of the Muslim
sites on the Temple Mount. Yet Palestinians can't abide the fact
that the Jewish presence in Jerusalem anteceded the Muslim arrival
in 636 CE by well over [two?] millennia.... Sadly, not one
Palestinian leader is willing to tell his people that, ofcourse,
there was a Jewish temple where the Aqsa osque stands today. To
admit a Jewish civilizational connection would demand that
Palestinians agree to share the area and to treat Jewish holy places
with respect. It would turn upside down a Palestinian political
culture that has socialized generations to think of Jews as
interlopers. And this neither Fatah's Abbas, nor Hamas's Ismail
Haniyeh nor the Islamic Movement's Sheikh Raed Salah will ever do.
Since the liberation of Jerusalem in 1967, the Jews have been
magnanimous in victory. Not only have they permitted Muslims to
retain administrative control over their holy places, Israeli
authorities have forbidden Jewish prayer on the Temple Mount.... So
while Israel's QThird TempleQ fanatics are carefully policed and
marginalized by mainstream society, the Palestinian leadership
continues to mainstream fanatical ideas about Jews -- making
reconciliation unreachable.

III. "The Temple Mount Is the Heart of the Conflict"
Columnist Assaf Golan wrote in the editorial of the nationalist,
Orthodox Makor Rishon-Hatzofe (p. 6) (10/6): QOne of the most
complex problems that Israel will have to face in the next few years
is the issue of the Temple Mount.... It is impossible to produce
historic reconciliations between national entities only based on
instant politics when both sidesQ deep foundations lean on profound
spiritual and emotional worlds. This simple truth teaches us that
not only might fleeing the challenge of the Temple Mount blow up in
IsraelQs face but it might as well drag the entire Middle East into
a terrible bloodshed despite itself.

---------
¶2. Iran:
---------

Block Quotes:
-------------

"No Cause for Celebration"

Intelligence affairs writer Ronen Bergman opined in the
mass-circulation pluralist Yediot Aharonot (10/6): QThe supposedly
dramatic agreement produced by the talks between Iran and the
[world] powers will not lead to the disappearance of the nuclear
peril from the regime of the ayatollahs. Anyway this a nice
achievement for the Iranians -- an agreement that will only slightly
delay their race to the bomb, provide them a bonus in public
opinion, provide Russia and China with an alibi for the continuation
of their excellent economic ties with Iran.... The positive side of
this arrangement is that the quantity to be transferred to Russia --
as long as it stays in Russia -- will be supervised.... But there
are drawbacks. First of all, the agreement doesnQt prevent Iran
from continuing to enrich ... uranium on its territory. It will be
able to produce a bomb.... Those who stand to earn most from this
agreement, should it materialize, are the Russians. Not only will
they receive a lot of money for this process, but they will succeed
in creating for themselves an alibi for continuing their vast
economic, military, and civilian ties with Iran.

CUNNINGHAM

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD

WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM
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SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA
HQ USAF FOR XOXX
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COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD
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JERUSALEM ALSO ICD
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL
PARIS ALSO FOR POL
ROME FOR MFO

SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS

SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION

--------------------------------
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT:
--------------------------------

Mideast

-------------------------
Key stories in the media:
-------------------------

All media quoted PM Benjamin Netanyahu as saying in interviews with
various media that he sees confirmation of IsraelQs positions in
President ObamaQs first U.N. speech yesterday. In an interview with
HaQaretz, the PM said that President Obama's speech to the U.N.
General Assembly was "positive" because "he also said something we
had been seeking for six months, that we have to meet and begin the
diplomatic process without preconditions." Netanyahu also said
Obama had spoken "clearly about Israel as the nation-state of the
Jewish people. I believe that disagreement about this is the root
of the conflict." Netanyahu also pointed out that Obama had made
reference to Israeli efforts to improve the Palestinian economy by
lifting roadblocks. The PM was quoted as saying that he disagrees
with the idea that Israel should withdraw to the 1967 orders. In an
interview with The Jerusalem Post, the PM said that the PresidentQs
speech was Qgood and positiveQ for Israel and for moving the peace
process forward. Netanyahu told reporters that there is no demand
of Israel to freeze the settlements. The Jerusalem Post quoted
Knesset members on the Right as saying that PM Netanyahu
Qprematurely celebratedQ what he thought was an American policy
shift in IsraelQs favor.

The media cited, and Maariv bannered, President ObamaQs comment that
Qthe U.S. will not accept the legitimacy of Israel's continued
settlement building.Q Media said that this corrected IsraelQs
assumptions stemming from the PresidentQs remarks following the
three-way meeting with the Israeli and Palestinian leaders earlier
in the week. The media also reported that Obama called on the
Palestinians to stop incitement against Israel and on Israel to end
the occupation. The media often cited the PresidentQs remark that
the U.S. cannot Qsolve the world's problems alone.

The Jerusalem Post and other media wrote that Netanyahu will seek
wide consensus on an action against Iran. Yediot expects PM
Netanyahu to tell heads of state at the U.N. General Assembly today
that they must choose between Israel -- a democratic, liberal
country -- and Iran -- a terror-sponsoring state. The newspaper
also says that Netanyahu will condemn the Goldstone report and say
that the U.N outlaws Israel. The PM was quoted as saying in an
interview with Makor Rishon-Hatzofe that his achievement is an
improvement of relations with the U.S. and that he will tell the
entire world that Israel will not agree to a new Holocaust. The
media reported that although the tone of Iranian President Mahmoud
AhmadinejadQs speech was more moderate than last year, the
representatives of 20 countries, led by French envoys, walked out of
the hall.

Maariv reported that PM NetanyahuQs envoy Yitzhak Molcho and senior
Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat are slated to meet in New York to
try to reach understandings that will pave the way for the beginning
of negotiations between Netanyahu and Abbas. Molcho reportedly met
with U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Peace Senator George
Mitchell yesterday to prepare for todayQs meeting. The newspaper
reported that Mitchell and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are
slated to visit the region in two weeks.

Israel Radio reported that, in an interview with the London-based
Al-Hayat newspaper, PA President Mahmoud Abbas described the
Netanyahu government as a problem and said that the PA had no common
basis for dialogue with it. Abbas was quoted as saying that there
are no subjects left to discuss between the sides, since the Israeli
Government continued the construction in the settlements and refused
to talk about Jerusalem and the refugees. He stressed that the PA
was opposed to the establishment of a Palestinian state in temporary
borders, which he believes would turn into an established fact.

HaQaretz quoted Luis Moreno-Ocampo of Argentina, a senior prosecutor
at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, as saying on
Monday that he is considering opening an investigation into whether
Lt. Col. David Benjamin, an IDF reserve officer, allowed war crimes
to be committed during the IDF's three-week offensive in Gaza this
winter. The officer -- a dual citizen of Israel and South Africa,
where he was born -- served in the IDF Advocate General's
international law department, which authorized which targets troops
would strike before and during the operation. HaQaretz reported
that on Monday Newsweek released an interview with Moreno-Ocampo in
which he said he is convinced his office has the authority to launch
an investigation into Benjamin's actions. The ICC has until now
refrained from trying IDF officers, as it lacks authority to do so,
since Israel is not a signatory to the 2002 Rome Treaty that founded
the court. South Africa, however, did sign the treaty, so the ICC
is authorized to indict its citizens. HaQaretz notes that
Moreno-Ocampo's remarks are in line with the recommendations of a UN
fact-finding commission on the Gaza war headed by South African
Justice Richard Goldstone. HaQaretz reported that the ICC began
looking into Benjamin's case after receiving material from
pro-Palestinian organizations in South Africa. The material
included a transcript of an interview Benjamin gave to the web site
Bloomberg.com, in which the officer recounted his involvement in
legal consultations with the IDF ahead of army operations.

The media reported that yesterday, in his address to the U.N.
General Assembly, Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi ripped the U.N.
Charter and dismissed the two-state solution. He pitted the bloody
history of Jews in Europe against what he termed the tolerance of
Islam.

Maariv reported the police will increase their state of alert in the
northern, mixed city of Acre, for fear of a repetition of last Yom
KippurQs clashes.

The Jerusalem Post reported that the IDF Central Command is forming
a rapid-response team to combat extremist settlers.

HaQaretz and Maariv reported that, one day after losing the UNESCO
leadership contest to Bulgarian diplomat Irina Bokova, Egyptian
Culture Minister Ferrous Hosni renewed his attacks against the Jews.
He was quoted as saying that the Qorganization gave in to
tremendous political and Zionist pressure.Q Yediot quoted a Saudi
Web site in a report that Hosni had assisted Palestinian
terrorists.

Yesterday Channel 2-TV revealed that in July terrorists tried to
carry out an attack against a bus carrying Israelis in the Sinai and
that this was the reason for severe warnings at the time by the
Counter-Terrorism Bureau at IsraelQs National Security Council.

HaQaretz reported that the organization Breaking the Silence will be
among the groups receiving grants from a foundation set up by the
prominent Canadian singer Leonard Cohen -- the Fund For
Reconciliation, Tolerance, and Peace. Cohen will perform in Tel
Aviv tonight.

The media reported that former PM Ehud OlmertQs trial will start at
the Jerusalem District Court tomorrow.
HaQaretz cited the results of a poll conducted among Palestinians by
the International Peace Institute headed by Terje Roed-Larsen:
- Fifty-five percent of Palestinians favor a Palestinian state in
the West Bank and Gaza, separate from Israel. The survey did not
ask respondents about the option of one Palestinian state between
the Mediterranean and the Jordan River
- Sixty-six percent support the Arab peace initiative.
- Fifty-two percent are opposed to a solution of the Jerusalem issue
according to the principle of QArab neighborhoods to the Arabs and
Jewish neighborhoods to the Jews (including the Old City).
- Sixty-nine percent support a solution to the refugee problem
according to U.N. Resolution 194 Q Israel would take in a number of
refugees similar to the number absorbed in the European states.
- Almost 70% say that they do not support the U.S. President and 56%
say that they do not believe he will bring about progress toward the
establishment of two states.
- Fifty-five percent are happy with the performance of President
Abbas; 51% are unhappy with PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad; and 64%
are unhappy with the performance of Hamas PM Ismail Haniyeh.

--------
Mideast:
--------

Block Quotes:
-------------

¶I. "DonQt Descend from the Summit"

The independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized (9/24): QIt is
to be hoped that the triumphal crowing from Netanyahu's camp after
the summit does not mean the Prime Minister interprets Obama's
decision to pull back from his demand for a total settlement freeze
as a carte blanche for construction in the West Bank and East
Jerusalem.... Israel also has no interest in making Obama look like
a weak leader who cannot impose his will on a small, friendly state.
The United States holds the key to restraining the Iranian nuclear
threat, and is also Israel's bulwark against imposed political
solutions.... The New York summit was an important step, but by no
means sufficient. Now is the time to move forward from mere
handshakes to real action.

II. "The Go Kart Policy"

Channel 2-TV commentator Amnon Abramovich wrote in the
mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot (9/24): QIn his Cairo
speech, Obama managed to sway Arab public opinion in his direction,
but was unable to budge any Arab leader by a millimeter. Even from
the King of Saudi Arabia, who depends on him for his physical
existence, Obama was unable to extract passage for Israeli planes.
It is worth mentioning that the firm formulation that President
Obama made in his U.N. speech last night -- to end the occupation
that began in 1967 -- was adopted by the Likud government headed by
Ariel Sharon seven years ago already in the framework of the
Roadmap. And nothing happened. The conflict here is complicated
also because there are no partners. The Israeli Prime Minister
trembles as if he had spent the night in the Settlers Council's
protest tent. And Abu Mazen, who was given, at the time, an
inordinate proposal from Ehud Olmert, did not even get back to him
purely as a courtesy. Without employing all the levers, all the
might and pressure on both sides, how will the U.S. President truly
know that he has no partners?

III. "On ObamaQs Block"

Senior commentator Ari Shavit wrote in Ha'aretz (9/24): QThis region
must be given evolutionary, and not revolutionary, treatment. The
key word is: process. Not a KO punch, but a long and thorough
chipping away that will gradually change Palestinian society and at
the same time lead to the end of the occupation. No one is more
suited to the task than Obama. This talented community worker will
have to see this blighted and violent neighborhood for what it is.
Instead of wasting time on doomed efforts to get Netanyahu and Abbas
on the road to an illusory Peace-Now solution, Obama should initiate
a gradual, deep and cautious process, one that will relentlessly
partition the country.

IV. "The QHalf-FullQ Aspects of ObamaQs Speech"
Diplomatic correspondent Herb Keinon wrote on page one of the
conservative, independent Jerusalem Post (9/24): QThat the
settlement line received the loudest applause of the president's
speech ... should not distract anyone from the interesting nuances
that redounded very much in Israel's favor. For instance, the
President did not call -- as some in Israel had worried about -- for
two states along the 1967 lines.... Likewise, the President --
unlike in his Cairo speech -- made no mention of Jerusalem, other
than to say it was one of the issues that would be discussed in the
permanent-status negotiations. Another nuance in yesterday's
address was his reference to Israel as a Jewish state, something
that has been interpreted as shorthand for an appreciation that
descendants of Palestinian refugees, in any future agreement, will
be allowed to return to a future Palestinian state, and not to
Israel. And, finally, Obama also gave voice to his exasperation
with the failure of the Arab world to heed his call and make any
gestures toward normalizing ties with Israel, or do anything
concrete to move the diplomatic process forward.... [Regarding his
condemnation of incitement, the PresidentQs] message was clear: it
was time for the Arabs to stop saying one thing in private, and
another in public, but to act publicly on what they say privately.
From the [Israeli] Government's point of view, that comment more
than compensated for his remark that continued settlement
construction was illegitimate.

¶V. QThe Great Betrayal

Far left columnist Gideon Levy wrote in Ha'aretz (9/24): QWhy is it
okay to talk to Iran but not to Hamas?.... As Israel's isolation in
the world only grows, and the danger of Iran threatens the country,
Israel's best friend must pressure its ally and save it from itself.
Instead, we got another condemnation of the Goldstone Commission
report, this time from the new American Ambassador to the United
Nations, Susan Rice, who had held the promise of major change. It's
not too late. True, the initial momentum has been lost, but now,
following this week's Qsummit of rebukes,Q America must hurry up and
rebuke itself and mainly ponder how to get out of the booby trap to
which it has succumbed. Now, too, only America can (and must) do
it.

VI. "America ShouldnQt Cuddle Itself in Its Visions"

Veteran journalist and television anchor Dan Margalit wrote in the
independent Israel Hayom (9/24): QObamaQs America is weaker than at
any given time since the end of World War II; this allows Israel to
repel some pressure from the White House, but Israel essentially has
a supreme interest in the strengthening of the United States and the
acceptance of its leadership.... If the United States of the 44th
President continues to cuddle itself in his visions, 2009 and 2010
will be recorded as historical parallels of 1936 and the most
horrible war that started three years later. It can be fairly
assumed that not only the composition of [NetanyahuQs] words [at the
speech he will deliver today to the U.N. General Assembly], but the
resonance they will find, will determine the worldQs assessment of
the intentions of the Jewish state, which is such an important actor
on the Middle Eastern scene.

VII. "ObamaQs Word"

Conservative columnist Nadav Haetzni wrote in the popular, pluralist
Maariv (9/24): QFor so many years, Israelis have been told to fold
their national flags because of the limits of IsraelQs power.... It
has been proven this week in New York that this scenario is not
really implementable.... The person who demonstrated the limits of
his power was U.S. President Barack Obama.... Had ObamaQs entourage
learned the history of U.S. pressure on Israel, it would have
adopted a slightly more modest approach. If it had not been blinded
by the temporary success in the elections, it would have found out
that since the foundation of Israel, no American pressure could
defeat determined Israeli resistance.

VIII. "The Restraining of Obama"

Settler leader Israel Harel wrote in HaQaretz (9/24): QSettlement in
Judea and Samaria [i.e. the West Bank] is a solid, permanent and
deeply rooted reality. A long and terrible war of terror could not
vanquish it, oceans of horrific and cruel propaganda, especially
from those within Israeli society who hate it, could not break its
spirit. The complete opposite happened. All the more so, external
dictates will not rattle its foundations. Functional arrangements
for the future of Judea and Samaria have their place, but the
starting point is clear: Settlements will not be uprooted and their
size will not be limited. Even the restrained Obama has begun to
realize this. So when will the extreme left in Israel also restrain
itself and realize it?

IX. "Played for a Sucker"

Liberal columnist Larry Derfner wrote in the conservative,
independent Jerusalem Post (9/24): QWe're laughing at this guy now.
Look, Benjamin Netanyahu stared down the President of the United
States! The settlers have stopped worrying. All is well again in
our little Qvilla in the jungle,Q as Ehud Barak, the government's
man of the Left, likes to describe this country. And if Israel is
happy -- 21st century Israel, that is, Israel the right-wing
monolith -- then the Republican Party is happy, too. We're allies,
Israelis and Republicans. If we stare down Obama, the Republicans
are encouraged, and vice versa. In the campaign to cripple the
Obama administration, to destroy his presidency, Israel is doing
much, much more than its share.... This cannot go on. Obama, for
the sake of his presidency, cannot allow this to go on.

¶X. QA Continuation Will Follow

Political commentator Ephraim Ganor wrote in Russian-language
popular pluralist weekly Novosty Nedely (9/24):QThe American
President looked like a tough teacher coping with irresponsible
students.... He publically reprimanded Netanyahu and Abu Mazen....
The U.S. President spoke with a very serious face and his entire
speech expressed a visible dissatisfaction with both IsraelisQ and
PalestiniansQ approaches. He expressed a firm intention to bring
the sides to the negotiations in the nearest future... The U.S.
President succeeded in breaking the resistance of the Palestinians,
who were unwilling to start the negotiations until an absolute
freeze of settlement construction in Judea and Samaria [i.e. the
West Bank].... Despite the toughness demonstrated by President
Obama, both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Abu Mazen tried to show
journalists accompanying them that actually the U.S. President was
unable to achieve anything.... The QtrilateralQ high-level meeting
was first of all important for Barack Obama in order to improve his
image that has tremendously suffered recently. The feeling that
Obama is rather a person of words than deeds is increasing.... His
famous election campaign slogan QYes, We Can!Q today seems an empty
one with no real basis. The number of the U.S. PresidentQs failures
and political malfunctions is continuing to grow.... ObamaQs
unenviable situation leads one to expect that he will undertake a
maximum of efforts to achieve significant results on the
Israeli-Palestinian track, [since] his chances [to succeed] look
much more realistic [on this track] than anywhere else.

CUNNINGHAM

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD

WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM
NSC FOR NEA STAFF

SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA
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JERUSALEM ALSO ICD
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL
PARIS ALSO FOR POL
ROME FOR MFO

SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS

SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION

--------------------------------
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT:
--------------------------------

¶1. Mideast

¶2. Iran

¶3. Anniversary of 9/11

-------------------------
Key stories in the media:
-------------------------

The media quoted PM Benjamin Netanyahu as saying yesterday before an
audience of Likud members in Tel Aviv that Israelis were ready to
make concessions for peace, but that they will not be "suckers" in
peace negotiations. Media quoted him as saying that since his
Bar-Ilan University speech, "I have been working on getting
international recognition for two things: Israel as the Jewish
homeland and that any peace agreement must include security
arrangements. We will not allow for a 'Hamastan' among us.
Addressing the settlers, whom he called Qloyal and good citizens, he
said: QYou deserve to live normal lives. We will do two things at
the same time: advance the peace process and enable you to live
normal lives.Q YediotQs online service Ynet reported that Culture
and Sports Minister Limor Livnat joined the camp of the Likud
Qrebels.Q Some media reported that Minister Silvan Shalom also
joined up with the dissenting Likud members.

The Jerusalem Post reported that two senior U.S. officials told
Jewish leaders in Washington yesterday that the U.S. is laying the
groundwork for sanctions against Iran after having become
increasingly disenchanted with the strategy of engagement. Under
Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns was quoted as
saying that the Obama administration wants to prepare for sanctions
now, so that it will be ready to implement them at the end of the
year if it comes to that, and not have to start from scratch at that
point. Top White House Middle East adviser Dennis Ross, appearing
beside Burns at the panel discussion with the Jewish leaders,
explained that the administration's focus on diplomatic engagement
had shifted following the Iranian elections, and indicated that the
White House now had a more skeptical view of that approach which
could give way to sanctions.
HaQaretz reported that, less than two weeks before the U.N. General
Assembly is to meet, PA President Mahmoud Abbas remains adamant in
his refusal to meet with Netanyahu, potentially jeopardizing the
Obama administration's plans to hold a three-way meeting in New York
on September 23 or 24. Abbas insists there will be no meeting with
Netanyahu, nor a resumption of negotiations, unless Israel
completely freezes settlement construction in the West Bank and East
Jerusalem. HaQaretz says that the U.S. and Israel are still hoping
that an agreement on a temporary freeze in settlement construction,
along with an Israeli announcement to that effect, will convince
Abbas to change his mind. HaQaretz has learned that Abbas has
relayed messages in recent days to senior U.S. and European
officials, as well as Israeli officials, saying he did not intend to
participate in a tripartite meeting at the UN General Assembly and
that he was not willing to meet with Netanyahu. HaQaretz quoted a
diplomatic source in Jerusalem as saying that Israel's recent
announcement of 455 new building permits and the delay in declaring
a freeze in settlement construction are the reasons Abbas is
refusing to participate in the meeting.

The Jerusalem Post reported that PM Netanyahu's scheduled meeting
with U.S Special Envoy George Mitchell on Monday will deal not only
with the settlement issue, but also with a timeline and the
parameters of talks that are expected to be launched with the
Palestinians on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly meeting
later this month. Although no formal announcement has yet been
made, Mitchell is expected to arrive in Israel either Saturday night
or Sunday for another round of talks. It is not clear whether he
will be going to other states in the region. The Jerusalem Post
quoted diplomatic officials in the U.S. as saying that President
Obama is keen on some kind of foreign policy success at what some --
because of the intense debate surrounding his health care reform --
are calling a "defining period" of his young presidency.

The Jerusalem Post quoted high-ranking Fatah official Jibril Rajoub
as saying yesterday that Fatah welcomes a new Egyptian proposal
aimed at solving its dispute with Hamas. The Egyptian proposal has
the support of Hamas as well.

HaQaretz reported that France called on Russia yesterday not to
complete the sale of advanced air defense missiles to Iran.

Sunday will mark the 16th anniversary of the signing of the Oslo
Accords in Washington. President Shimon Peres told HaQaretz that
the agreement is Qalive and kicking.Q HaQaretz (Akiva Eldar) brings
the reflections of, and a little breast-beating by, three of the
agreementQs architects on their lasting contributions. Yossi Beilin
is quoted as saying: QOslo changed the entire conceptual system of
Israeli society. It did to Israel what all the wars, including the
trauma of the Yom Kippur War, did not.Q Uri Savir, who is also
unsparingly critical of Yasser ArafatQs failure to create
institutions and fight extremist groups such as Hamas, states: QWe
were too heavy-handed with security and we were unaware of its
effect on poverty and terrorism in the territories.Q Yair
Hirschfeld comments that without a fundamental change in the
situation on the ground, a final-status arrangement is impossible.

The Jerusalem Post reported that this week the Jerusalem
MagistrateQs Court ordered a halt to a number of construction
projects in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Silwan, after
residents and two local NGOs filed a petition claiming the projects
were illegal.

The Jerusalem Post quoted the Israeli human rights organizations Kav
Laoved and Gisha as saying that when permits are issued for
Palestinians to work in construction, information on which
contractors have received the permits, and how many, should be made
public. Suspicions of black market trade have arisen following the
approval of 5,0000 new permits.

HaQaretz reported that FM Avigdor Lieberman is returning today from
a visit to five African states, where in addition to discussing
Africa's internal problems, he and his entourage laid the groundwork
for weapons deals. Among other matters, the daily reported that
Ethiopia, which has long had friendly relations with Israel, is
willing to allow Israeli military agents operate there.

The media believe that NetanyahuQs military secretary Maj. Gen. Meir
Kalifi is likely to become a scapegoat over his false explanation of
the PMQs clandestine trip to Russia on Monday. The Jerusalem PostQs
Herb Keinon speculated that the destination of NetanyahuQs travel
could have been a different one -- Saudi Arabia for instance.

The media quoted GOC Central Command Maj. Gen. Gadi Shamni as saying
yesterday that IDF soldiers were not authorized to attack
Palestinian civilians during arrest raids, adding that those who
cross the army's "red lines" must stand trial. Shamni said the IDF
never authorized the use of such aggression during questioning of
detainees. Shamni's comments came during the trial of First Lt.
Adam Malul who is accused of hitting a Palestinian during an arrest.

A difference of opinion has arisen with the IDF ranks between those
who justify such action and those who oppose it.

The Jerusalem Post reported that Israeli and PA police forces
together with the IDFQs civil administration are increasing their
cooperation, and have implemented a series of confidence-building
measures over the past two years.

HaQaretz and Yediot reported that senior Israeli jurists are
recommending that the state fundamentally reform immigration policy
to naturalize long-time foreign workers, draft an immigration law,
and create an immigration ministry.

The media reported that the Ofer familyQs Israel Corporation hinted
yesterday that the Zim shipping firm may not be able to meet its
obligations. The corporation owns about 98.5% of ZimQs shares.

Major media reported that archeologists recently discovered the
earliest Jewish description of a Second Temple period candelabra (or
menorah) in a dig at the site of a synagogue on the shores of the
Sea of Galilee.

------------
¶1. Mideast:
------------

Block Quotes:
-------------

¶I. "Time for Business"

Columnist Shmuel Rosner, who was HaQaretzQs correspondent in
Washington, wrote in the popular, pluralist Maariv (9/11): QWhen
Netanyahu returned from London, he had already agreed to a
moratorium on new building in the settlements. But the duration of
the moratorium has not been fixed. The full picture of the Arab
commitments has not entirely cleared up either. The Americans view
a split list: the commitments that have already been, and those in
the making. They gently hinted to the Israeli envoys that any
bombastic announcement about the construction of 400 housing units
in the territories, any governmental spin for domestic political
purposes, will carry an Arab price tag.... Mitchell has already
erased at least one item from the list of what he had apparently
managed to receive.

II. "Tactical Victories"

Editor-in-Chief David Horovitz wrote in the conservative,
independent Jerusalem Post (9/11): QPublicly, the White House has
condemned the new-old building plans, but plainly Netanyahu's deft
build-then-freeze combination has not derailed the Obama
administrationQs plans to broker a formal resumption of substantive
Israeli-Palestinian talks in the next few weeks, possibly with a
launch that coincides with the U.N. General Assembly session.
According to some in Jerusalem, moreover, the months of talks on the
parameters of a freeze have also gradually yielded a softening of
the initial absolute American demand that all building come to a
halt everywhere beyond the Green Line. What hasnQt changed [since
the Oslo Accords], at least not for the better, is the Palestinian
position Q the same maximalist stances, the same relentless
anti-Israel incitement, and the same refusal by leaders to
acknowledge and convey to their people the legitimacy of Israel. If
Obama and Netanyahu have found a middle ground, there is sadly no
evidence that Abbas is traveling in the same direction. For the
hesitant Rabin of 1993, as a consequence, substitute a wary Israel
in 2009 -- an Israel backing a prime minister heading into
negotiations expecting rejection, deadlock, and worse. How
fervently we wish to be proved wrong.

III. "Preparing for the American Peace Plan"

Shaul Arieli, member of the Council for Peace and Security, wrote in
the independent, left-leaning HaQaretz (9/11): QOn the
Israeli-Palestinian track, the Americans will seek to create
circumstances on the ground which would enable the building of the
state-in-the-making. In addition, they will offer their own
bridging proposals which will be gradually presented to both sides
in the two years allotted for the negotiations. The American
proposals will be laid out on the negotiating table through a
variety of diplomatic means -- ranging from an international peace
conference based on the Madrid model, to an exchange of letters
based on the Oslo model, to the deposits based on the Syria model,
to the detailed parameters for a solution to the conflict based on
the Bill Clinton model. One should hope that the Americans, who
were smart enough to adopt the ... Qeither/orQ approach, will
refrain from meeting halfway on the key issues, be they a freeze in
settlement construction or the right of return. At Camp David and
Taba, we learned that halfway compromises of this nature on each
issue individually do not bring the two sides closer, but rather
creates a lose-lose situation. The compromise must be aimed at a
comprehensive package deal: Israel as the state of the Jewish nation
which enjoys security, recognition and peace; and an independent
Palestine alongside it.

IV. "Benjamin the Giver"

Haggai Segal, who was a member of the QJewish undergroundQ in the
1980s, wrote in the mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot
(9/11): QListen, complacent Likudniks: Netanyahu is mentally capable
of returning you to the Q67 lines Q yes, in Jerusalem too. Three
months ago he hummed Qtwo states for two peoplesQ according to
ObamaQs tune; he now even freezes MaQaleh Adumim; tomorrow he will
concede everything. If you donQt tell him QnoQ as soon as possible,
he will continue to say only Qyes.

---------
¶2. Iran:
---------

Block Quotes:
-------------

¶I. "The PMQs Skewed Threat Perception"

Political/diplomatic correspondent Gil Hoffman wrote in
conservative, independent Jerusalem Post (9/11): QThe tables have
turned and Netanyahu is doing much better in the polls than U.S.
President Barack Obama, ahead of an anticipated meeting of the two
men soon in New York. Ironically, this means it will now be harder
for Netanyahu to use political problems as a reason to say no to
anything Obama would want him to do. But if Netanyahu does talk
about imminent political threats against him, Obama should not
assume that the Prime Minister is being economical with the truth.
The President should instead understand that whether or not the
computer, the radio, and the television are on, Netanyahu sometimes
truly sees internal political threats that are not that serious.
Yet Netanyahu and Obama will not be getting together to discuss
internal politics but grave matters of war and peace. And when it
comes to the external threats facing Israel, one can only hope that
the Prime Minister correctly judges the scale of the threats, and
responds accordingly.

II. "Countdown to Takeoff"

Military correspondent Amos Harel wrote in the independent,
left-leaning Ha'aretz (9/11): QFor an Israeli attack [on Iran] to be
considered, Israel would need the tacit approval of the Obama
administration, if only in the sense that it looks the other way.
This is due above all to the necessity of passing through the Iraqi
air corridor, as American soldiers will still be in Iraq in 2011.
No less important is strategic coordination for the day after: How
will the United States react to a prolonged aerial attack by Israel
on the nuclear sites and to the regional flare-up that might follow?
These are matters that would have to be agreed on directly between
Obama and Netanyahu. The disparity in their policy stances,
together with the total lack of personal chemistry between them, is
liable to prove a hindrance. Iran is likely to respond to an
Israeli attack by opening fronts nearby, via Hizbullah from Lebanon
and Hamas in Gaza. Three years after the Second Lebanon War and at
the end of a broad process of learning lessons from that conflict,
the IDF is quite confident of its ability to deal with Hizbullah.
At the same time, it's clear that Israel will be subjected to
extensive rocket attacks that can be expected to cover most of the
country. A key question would be Syria's behavior. Israel has a
salient interest in having Damascus be no more than a spectator in a
confrontation. If the attack on Iran is perceived to have been
successful, that is probably how the Syrians will respond. But an
attack on Iran will reopen a decades-old blood feud -- and the
Iranians have both a long memory and a great deal of patience. With
decisions like this looming within a year, it's no wonder that
Netanyahu wants to get the Gilad Shalit affair wrapped up.

------------------------
¶3. Anniversary of 9/11:
------------------------
Block Quotes:
-------------

"Until the Next Surprise"

Senior columnist and longtime dove Yoel Marcus wrote in the
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz (9/11): QIt's bad enough that
al-Qaida killed Americans. It has also continued to make a mockery
of them, which just goes to show that brains do not always go hand
in hand with brawn.... An American commission of inquiry headed by
Thomas Kean, the former Governor of New Jersey, blamed the Bush
administration for the 9/11 attacks. In response to Condoleezza
Rice's question, in which she wondered how we could have guessed
that they would hijack passenger airplanes with the goal of crashing
them into buildings, Kean replied that at least two intelligence
agencies possessed information which indicated that such an event
would take place. The information, however, was not passed onward,
and the available bits of information were not added together, thus
ensuring that the plot would not be exposed beforehand. As such,
the responsible agencies did not fulfill their tasks. Now we are
cognizant and ready, so such an event will not happen again. Until
the next lethal surprise.

CUNNINGHAM

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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PARIS ALSO FOR POL
ROME FOR MFO

SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS

SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION

--------------------------------
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT:
--------------------------------

Mideast

-------------------------
Key stories in the media:
-------------------------

All major media bannered copies of the first letter sent by Gilad
Shalit in captivity in September or October 2006, two or three
months after he was abducted. In the missive, Shalit complained of
physical and mental hardships and asked the then Israeli leadership
for quick action towards his release. Some media wondered why the
Shalit family decided to divulge the contents of the letter at this
point. Israel Radio cited the official Chinese news agency Xinhua
as saying yesterday that a Norwegian defense representative met last
week with Hamas representatives to discuss the possibility that his
countries -- and other European states -- would take in prisoners
released by Israel in exchange for Shalit. The report allegedly
state that NorwayQs contacts with Hamas started after Germany became
involved in the mediation efforts, and that they dealt with the
number of prisoners to be deported to Europe.

The media speculated on the reason behind a 14-hour QholeQ in PM
Benjamin NetanyahuQs schedule on Monday. Refuting claims in the
Arab press that were relayed in some Israeli media that he had
visited Arab states, Yediot revealed that Netanyahu made a secret
visit to Russia, possibly to discuss sensitive Russian arms sales to
Iran or Syria. HaQaretz and other media cited press agency reports
saying that yesterday Russian FM Sergey Lavrov rejected speculation
that the QArctic Sea,Q a hijacked Russian-crewed freighter, was
carrying advanced S-300 missiles possibly destined for Iran.

Israel Radio quoted Egyptian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Husam Zaki
as saying that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will not discuss the
Shalit affair during his meeting with PM Netanyahu on Sunday. Zaki
also reportedly said that Egypt does not condition NetanyahuQs visit
on a freeze in settlement construction and that the meeting should
not be viewed as an encouragement of continued construction.

Israel Radio reported that, during a meeting with incoming U.S.
Consul-General in Jerusalem Daniel Rubinstein, PA President Mahmoud
Abbas urged the U.S. to continue its efforts to put an end to
violations of the Roadmap.

Yediot reported that one third of the KnessetQs Likud faction
members are expected to take part in a meeting today that is
intended to apply pressure on the PM on the issue of settlement
construction. Makor Rishon-Hatzofe reported that at least four
Likud cabinet ministers will attend the session. The Jerusalem Post
reported that far-Right Likud activist Moshe Feiglin will be
prevented from speaking at the event. Speaking on Israel Radio from
Abuja, Nigeria, yesterday, FM Avigdor Lieberman said that the Right
would not bring down the government and that his party, Yisrael
Beiteinu, would not leave NetanyahuQs coalition in the face of the
anticipated freeze on new building in the West Bank.

The Jerusalem Post and other media reported that a group of public
figures on the Left will launch an initiative in upcoming weeks to
support PM Benjamin NetanyahuQs efforts to advance the peace
process. The group includes former ministers Ami Ayalon and Amnon
Lipkin-Shahak, former deputy minister Dalia Rabin, former Foreign
Ministry Director-General Avi Gil, former IAF commander Maj.-Gen.
(res.) Eliezer Shkedy, and former Shin Bet chief Ya'acov Perry. They
are seeking more public figures to join the campaign. The
initiative, called Blue and White Peace, will try to persuade the
public, via advertising, press interviews and parlor meetings, that
creating a Palestinian state and pursuing the diplomatic process
with the Palestinians and Arab countries is in Israel's interest.
The organizers said the goal of the campaign was not to strengthen
Netanyahu personally, but to persuade him that the public was behind
whatever he would do to advance the diplomatic process.

The Jerusalem Post reported that U.S. Congressman Mike Rogers
(R-MI), the ranking Republican on the House Intelligence Committee,
told the newspaper yesterday that the U.S. administration needs to
stick to its stated September deadline for stricter sanctions
against Iran if the latter fails to offer a substantive response on
engagement over its nuclear program. Rogers, a former FBI agent,
was interviewed on the sidelines of the 9th Annual International
Institute of Counter-Terrorism Conference at the Interdisciplinary
Center in Herzliya.

Leading media reported that Turkish FM Ahmet Davutoglu called off a
planned trip to Israel because Jerusalem would not assist him in
entering Israel via Gaza.

The Jerusalem Post quoted sources close to Hamas in Gaza as saying
yesterday that Hamas leader Khaled MashalQs recent visit to Egypt
has brought the Islamist movement and Fatah closer to ending their
differences.

Yediot and Israel Radio reported that the U.N. Human Rights
Council-appointed fact-finding mission to investigate international
human rights and humanitarian law violations related to Operation
Cast Lead, which is headed by Judge Richard Goldstone, might demand
that Israel be put on trial for war crimes. Maariv, The Jerusalem
Post, and Israel Radio quoted the Israeli human rights BQTselem as
saying that 770 of 1,400 Palestinian casualties in Operation Cast
Lead were civilians; and 110 reportedly were children under the age
of 10. Maariv quoted the IDF SpokesmanQs OfficeQs response that the
BQTselem report is tainted with extraneous interests. Maariv
reported that Marc Garlasco, a senior member of the NGO Human Rights
Watch, who has composed several anti-Israel reports, collects Nazi
memorabilia.

The Jerusalem Post quoted Defense Secretary Robert Gates as saying
in an interview published by Al Jazeera-TV yesterday that U.S.
allies in the Middle East should strengthen their respective
militaries to deter Iran from continuing its suspected nuclear
weapons program.

HaQaretz and The Jerusalem Post reported that yesterday the Israel
Lands Administration published tenders for the construction of 486
apartments in the neighborhood of Pisgat ZeQev in East Jerusalem.

Maariv reported that a group of experts who support the Northrop
Grumman-developed Skyguard missile defense system have told PM
Netanyahu and DM Ehud Barak that because of its slow response time,
the Israeli-built Iron Dome system will not be able to protect
Sderot and the Upper Galilee town of Kiryat Shmona from Qassam and
Katyusha rockets.

The Jerusalem Post reported that defense officials and IDF officers
told the newspaper that a continued Pentagon refusal to integrate
Israeli systems into the stealth Joint Strike Fighter will likely
cause delays in the arrival of the advanced fighter jet to Israel.

The Jerusalem Post reported that a one-day conference will be held
on Capitol Hill in February (before the annual Jerusalem conference
that will take place on February 15-17) under the banner
QReinforcing U.S.-Israeli Ties.Q Among the participants will be
lawmakers from both countries and other past and present leaders.
The key discussions will focus on the unity of Jerusalem, the
realities of the peace process, and regional threats to global
security and how to confront them.

Israel Radio quoted Manhattan District Attorney Robert Morgenthau as
saying yesterday in an address to the Brookings Institution in
Washington that Iran is taking advantage of the Venezuelan banking
system to bypass sanctions and purchase materials needed for its
nuclear program.

The media reported that, in its annual report on education issued
yesterday, the OECD published negative data on Israeli investment in
education.

Leading media reported that the controversial Israeli ad campaign to
counter assimilation of Diaspora youth was halted early this week
after it drew angry reactions from many prominent American writers
and even a few Israelis.

The Jerusalem Post and Makor Rishon-Hatzofe reported that yesterday
the Jerusalem Municipality announced that the city will be split
into seven operational zones in an effort to improve delivery of
services.

The Jerusalem Post published the results of the August 2009 "War and
Peace Index" of the Evans Program for Conflict Resolution Research
of Tel Aviv University -- conducted August 31-September 1 -- that
shows that despite the recent streak of violent incidents throughout
the country, Jewish Israelis' sense of security is on the rise.
However, the survey also shows that a majority of Israelis do not
trust their government to withstand international political pressure
and that most see an urgent need for a political solution to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

- Forty-nine percent of those surveyed define their personal
security level as high or very high, 29% as medium, and only 19% as
low -- compared to April 2007, when 42.5% described their level as
high, 32% as medium and 24% as low.

- In terms of national security, 38% of those surveyed felt the
level is high, 37% said medium, and 22% said low. In 2007, the
respective rates were 24.5%, 36% and 39%.

- The survey also shows that those who define themselves as "left"
feel less worried about the national security situation than those
describing themselves as "center" or "right." Fifty-one percent of
those on the Left feel that national security levels are high,
compared to 37% of the Center and 39% of the Right.

- The same correlation between political leanings and sense of
security extends to the question of whether or not interviewees
feared a large-scale attack against Israel by one or more Arab
states. Twenty percent of those on the Left fear such an attack,
compared to 40% in the Center and 44% on the Right. However,
overall, a plurality of those surveyed -- 48% -- see a low or very
low chance of such an attack in the next five years.

- There is no clear trend on the way the Israeli Jewish public sees
the country's situation on the world stage. One third think Israel
is moderately or very isolated, another third think Israel is not at
all or is barely isolated, and the last third have no clear view on
the issue.

- However, the survey shows a clear tendency on the part of the
public to doubt the current government's ability to withstand
international pressure in order to safeguard Israel's political and
security interests. Fifty-four percent do not rely on the
government's ability at all, or not very much, compared to 42% who
moderately or very much rely on it. Among Left, Right and Center the
majority do not trust the government's ability, though the
percentage on the Left, 57%, is slightly higher.

- Almost all of those surveyed -- 85% -- rely on the IDF to defend
Israel and its citizens in the face of an attack by Arab states.
Nonetheless, a large majority -- 72% -- believe that the need to
find a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is urgent. This
sense of urgency is clear all along the political spectrum, but is
strongest on the Left. The public trusts the IDF to deal with an
attack, but would prefer a political solution.

--------
Mideast:
--------

Block Quotes:
-------------

¶I. "In OlmertQs Footsteps"

Diplomatic correspondent Aluf Benn wrote in the independent,
left-leaning HaQaretz (9/9): QThe understanding taking shape between
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Obama administration on
the freezing of settlements makes one wonder: What was the reason
for changing governments in Jerusalem? Why was all that energy
invested in an election campaign if Netanyahu was going to end up
behaving like his predecessor, Ehud Olmert, and is willing to limit
the Qright of Jews to live anywhere in the Land of IsraelQ? Has
Netanyahu also given up on the right-wing ideology on which he was
nurtured in his father's house in return for a group photograph with
Presidents Barack Obama and Mahmoud Abbas?.... So, what has changed
since Olmert? Mainly one thing: the declaration that there is a
freeze on construction will, this time, be a public one, and it is
meant to foster normalization efforts with the Arab states. Which
is also what worries Netanyahu: What will he do if, at the end of
the period allotted for a freeze, he gets nothing in return? Will
he resume construction, against Obama's wishes, or will he be made
to look like a sucker who gave up something for nothing? This
dilemma remains unresolved for now, and it will continue to burden
the Prime Minister.

II. "Losing the Blocs"

Dov Weisglass, who was former prime minister Ariel Sharon's top
diplomatic advisor, wrote in the mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot
Aharonot (9/9): QThe current dispute between Israel and the U.S.
over the question of freezing construction in Judea and Samaria
[i.e. the West Bank] is a sign that the U.S. is ceasing to recognize
the practical format for a future territorial arrangement between
the Israelis and Palestinians, i.e.: Israel would continue to
maintain control over the large settlement centers in Judea and
Samaria, and the remainder of the territory would be for a
Palestinian state. On the basis of the assumption that this was the
nature of the future arrangement, Israel achieved all the
understandings and arrangements -- written and oral -- that enabled
the continuation of limited construction and development in the
large settlement blocs. The current governmentQs insistence on not
adhering to this outline, and the fact that it is refraining from
raising it as an Israeli demand, will ultimately cause not only a
construction freeze -- it will lead to the loss of diplomatic
ability to continue to hold onto the large settlement blocs.

III. "Too Late"

Chief Economic Editor and senior columnist Sever Plotker wrote in
the mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot (9/9): QHalf a
million. Half a million Jewish Israelis have made their homes over
the Green Line, the border between Israel and Jordan from 1967. Of
these, 200,000 live in the territories that Israel has defined as
part of greater Jerusalem and annexed to its sovereignty, and
another 300,000 lives in the other areas of Judea and SamariaQor the
West Bank.... If the number of Jews in all of Judea and Samaria,
including the East Jerusalem areas, continues to grow at the current
pace, the Jewish population over the QGreen LineQ that has been
effaced from the consciousness of the Israelis will number about
750,000 in 2025. But today too, when the number is QonlyQ 500,000,
the Jewish settlement in the territories has already determined
IsraelQs fate to a large degree.... The evacuation of 8,000 Jewish
settlers from the Gaza Strip and their absorption in Israel cost the
taxpayers 10 billion shekels [around $2.5 billion.5 billion]. Whoever wants
to turn the wheel back and evacuate the Israelis from the
territories beyond the 1967 borders, will have to invest about 600
billion shekels [around around50 billion] to do so. This is a
completely imaginary price.... Without the Palestinians having
understood the process, and without most of the Israeli citizens
having paid attention to it, the territories beyond the 1967 borders
have become the main absorption area of new Jewish populations:
Immigrants from the former Soviet Union, young Jerusalemites,
ultra-Orthodox Jews in distress and more. The QterritoriesQ have
served as IsraelQs territorial rear and filled this role with great
success. The political left wing in Israel believes that it has
gained the upper hand, and brings as conclusive proof of this the
declaration of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an integral part
of the Likud, in support of a conditional Palestinian state. The
left wing is wrong: While it was dealing with the futile Qdiplomatic
process,Q the active political right wing, with the backing and
assistance of all of IsraelQs governments save one, engaged in
developing the Jewish settlements in the territories. Half a
million Jews over the Green Line is a point of no return. The talk
of a Qconstruction freezeQ or Qsuspension of constructionQ in
certain settlements are a mockery and an attempt to cover the rear
end of leaders -- in Israel, in Palestine, around the world -- who
know deep down inside that the die has been cast. In the area of
Mandatory Palestine, between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean
Sea, an inseparable tangle has been created of two peoples -- an
omelet of Jews and Palestinians that cannot be turned into separate
eggs. It is too late.

IV. "ObamaQs Teachable Mideast Moment"

Columnist Michael Freund, who was an assistant to Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu during his first term in office, wrote in the
conservative, independent Jerusalem Post (9/9): QFor a president who
has been in office for just over seven months, Barack Obama can at
last point to some meaningful change that he has brought about in
the Middle East. Thanks to his administration's arm-twisting and
bullying of Jerusalem over settlements, Obama has unwittingly
succeeded in galvanizing the Israeli public like never before. The
result is a broad coalition that extends all the way from the
moderate left, through the center, and over to the reasonable right,
giving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plenty of political
breathing space.... If and when a final-status deal is ever
negotiated, it is crucial that the Americans and Palestinians go
into the talks aware that Israel is self-confident enough to stand
firm on issues it views as vital to its existence. This is what
Obama himself would likely refer to as a Qteachable momentQ on the
Middle East -- one from which he still has a lot to learn. In a
short period, he has hardened the Palestinian position, strengthened
the hand of Israel's settlement enterprise and led the Israeli
public to reassess its blind faith in Washington. That's quite a
record of achievement.

¶V. QObstacle to Peace

The Jerusalem Post editorialized (9/9): QForget the settlements.
If the world truly wants to identify an obstacle to peace, it could
do much worse than cast its eyes toward Arab League
Secretary-General Amr Moussa. For nearly 18 years Amr Moussa, first
as Egypt's Foreign Minister for a decade, and then for the last
eight years as head of the Arab League, has worked mightily to
poison the atmosphere against Israel.... This week, however, Moussa
outdid himself. With U.S. Envoy George Mitchell trying to line up
some normalization gestures from the Arab states toward Israel as
part of a package to relaunch the diplomatic process, Moussa did
what he could to stand in the way. At a press conference in Cairo
with Hamas leader Khaled Mashal, Moussa warned there would be a
harsh response against any Arab country making gestures to Israel.
QIt is impossible to talk of normalization when Israel refuses to
take real steps,Q Moussa said. QNo Arab state will offer Israel
gifts on a silver platter.Q What Moussa evidently has yet to
internalize is that peace is not a gift to Israel, but rather to the
region.... That hatred spreads. The New York Times ran a story from
Cairo Sunday about the refurbishing of ancient Jewish sites there as
part of the controversial Egyptian Culture Minister's campaign to
head UNESCO. One man in the street, a certain Khalid Badr, was
asked about his feeling toward Jews and Qas casually as if he had
E
been asked the time,Q replied: QWe hate them for everything they
have done to us.Q It is that matter-of-fact hatred, a hatred that
Moussa has both stirred and benefited from, that keeps the
diplomatic process mired in square one.

VI. QWhy Stop with Elbit?

Far-left Palestinian affairs correspondent Amira Hass wrote in
Ha'aretz (9/9): QThe question is not why Norway divested from the
[Israeli] defense electronics giant Elbit Systems, but why only now,
and why only from that company?.... The Norwegian Finance Ministry's
Council on Ethics, which recommended that the pension fund pull its
investment from Elbit, also explained why it would divest from that
company but not, say, from the U.S. company Caterpillar. Elbit, it
said, developed equipment used specifically in the construction of
the separation barrier, while the equipment sold by Caterpillar to
the Israel Defense Forces has legitimate uses as well, and the
company should not be held responsible for it being employed in
another, possibly illegal, way (namely, the wholesale destruction of
Palestinian homes).... [Anyway,] this is the first time a nation has
adopted -- actively and not just with words -- the opinion of the
International Court of Justice in the Hague about the separation
barrier, 87 percent of which is built on occupied land, in
contravention of international law.

CUNNINGHAM

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLM #0854/01 2431054
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 311054Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY COLOMBO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0469
INFO RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU PRIORITY 7129
RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK PRIORITY 3944
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 3263
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 8890
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 1869
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 3700
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 1287
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI//J3/J332/J52//
RHMFIUU/CDRUSARPAC FT SHAFTER HI//APCW/APOP//

UNCLAS COLOMBO 000854

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS AND PRM
STATE ALSO PASS TO USAID
AID/W FOR ANE/SCA
AID/W FOR DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, JBORNS
AID/W FOR DCHA/OFDA FOR ACONVERY, RTHAYER AND RKERR
BANGKOK FOR USAID/DCHA/OFDA WBERGER
KATHMANDU FOR USAID/DCHA/OFDA MROGERS AND POL SBERRY
USMISSION GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
USUN FOR ECOSOC DMERCADO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PREL PREF PGOV PHUM MOPS ASEC CE
SUBJECT: REPORT NUMBER TWO ON INTERAGENCY POLICY COMMITTEE
(IPC)BENCHMARKS FOR SRI LANKA

REF: A) Colombo 753 B) State 69689 C) Colombo 691

¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: This is the second of three monthly reports on the
Government of Sri Lanka's progress in meeting benchmarks as outlined
in Ref B. The start of pre-monsoonal rains this month has created a
heightened urgency among all humanitarian actors, in terms of
accelerating the release of people from Manik Farm and other camps,
accelerating the return of people to their communities of origin
and/or host families, and developing contingency plans for the tens
of thousands of people who will undoubtedly remain in Manik Farm
during the monsoon season. Information sources for this August
report are the Government of Sri Lanka (GSL), United Nations (UN),
and international non-governmental organizations (INGO), as well as
two USAID/OFDA (Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance) technical
experts currently on short-term assignment in Vavuniya town and
Manik Farm.

PRE-MONSOONAL RAINS: On August 14, ten centimeters of rain fell on
Vavuniya District, including the large IDP (internally displaced
persons) complex known as Manik Farm. These first, pre-monsoonal
rains in August caused temporary flooding in several zones of Manik
Farm and considerable concern among humanitarian organizations and
the GSL. Over the past two weeks, there has been a flurry of
activity by both GSL and international organizations. The GSL has
stated their intent to return large numbers of IDPs by September (an
estimate of 100,000 people has been suggested), and has also said
they plan to release members of vulnerable groups from Manik Farm
and other IDP camps. The UN and INGOs are attempting to anticipate
the timing of these events, as well as developing contingency plans
for the probable tens of thousands of IDPs who will remain in Manik
Farm throughout the monsoon season (generally late September through
December). Because of a lack of capacity, or simple refusal, on the
part of the GSL to do coordinated planning, international
humanitarian agencies continue to operate in a reactive mode.

CAMP MANAGEMENT AND ACCESS: Acute humanitarian needs continue to be
met in internally displaced persons camps (IDP) camps, but few
sectors are up to SPHERE standards. Most zones of Manik Farm
continue to be overcrowded, affecting the quality, quantity, and/or
timeliness of service delivery. Along with day-to-day needs, with
the upcoming monsoonal rains, camp management must put more emphasis
on decongestion (through releases and accelerated returns) and on
contingency planning for the monsoons. Although the Sri Lankan Army
(SLA) has generally withdrawn to the external periphery of the
camps, where it provides perimeter security and controls access to
the camps, there are occasional reports of armed military personnel
inside the camps. Local police are visible in the camps, but
maintain a low-key presence. It is also assumed that plainclothes
intelligence personnel operate in camps, to gather information about
LTTE ex-combatants and sympathizers. Each Manik Farm zone has a
civilian zonal commander who is ex-military. No major decisions
about camp management or releases of IDPs are made without the
concurrence of military authorities.

The GSL does not restrict access of the U.N. agencies, INGOs, and
NGOs that are delivering donor-funded goods and services and/or
carrying out relief activities in the IDP camps. In general, these
organizations are satisfied with access. Because of sensitivities
about protection activities with Sri Lankan authorities, access for
protection monitoring remains a concern. A recent attempt by USAID
officials to visit Zones 0 and 1 for comparative analysis was turned
down, with the explanation by the soldier at the entrance gate that
all services in those zones are provided by the GSL.

REGISTRATIONS AND SURRENDEES: As of August 27, the Government of
Sri Lanka (GSL) had completed data entry of approximately 155,000
IDPs and printed ID cards for 105,000 IDPs. Given the current
capacity of producing 15-20,000 cards per week, issuance of data
cards will continue well into October. This ID card appears to be a
prerequisite for permanent release from an IDP camp, although does
not guarantee an IDP will be released. A separate registration

process, conducted by the Ministry of Resettlement and Disaster
Relief Services with technical support by the International
Organization for Migration (IOM), has been completed for all
265,000+ IDPs displaced since 2008. The Ministry shared the
database this week with UNHCR, which is using it for planning
purposes related to returns and release of vulnerable groups. Once
it is more widely distributed, it will be a useful planning tool for
other sectors, such as de-mining.

Over 11,000 LTTE ex-combatants, or surrendees, have been separated
from the general IDP population. They reside in 13 camps in
Vavuniya District. IOM is preparing to begin socio-economic
profiling of ex-combatants, as the first step of the
rehabilitation/reintegration process, once funding is secured. If
an OFAC license is approved, USG funds may support this first step
and be available in September. Part of the GSL's justification for
slow releases of IDPs is their concern that ex-LTTE combatants
remain at large in the IDP camps. Post had been told previously
that up to 10,000 of these additional ex-combatants might remain
among the general IDP population. The Commissioner General of
Rehabilitation told a recent meeting of donors that he estimated an
additional 3-4,000 ex-combatants were still among the IDPs. As part
of this apparently ongoing screening process for LTTE sympathizers,
intelligence services reportedly bring surrendees into the general
camps to point out additional ex-cadres.

RETURNS: Given the added pressure of upcoming rains, the GSL has
announced the accelerated resettlement in September of up to 100,000
IDPs. These would be people whose homes of origin are outside the
Vanni, including places like Jaffna, cleared areas of Vavuniya and
Mannar, and the East. The Army Commander in Vavuniya said that
criteria for the release of vulnerable people from camps would be
relaxed, to include those disabled since birth, young children and
their caregivers, pregnant women, the mentally handicapped, and
severe medical cases (with doctor approval). There is considerable
skepticism that returns of such magnitude will actually occur.
However, though timeframes and planning are unpredictable, these
numbers are more plausible now that the Ministry of Resettlement has
a complete database of the homes of origin of all IDPs. Although
the GSL also talks about a 180-day resettlement plan, no details
have been released to the international community. However, GSL
engineers and technical specialists have made several trips into the
Vanni to develop infrastructure damage assessments, as part of an
overall reconstruction plan financed by multilaterals such as the
World Bank and Asian Development Bank, to support resettlement.
Based in Vavuniya town, there are periodic meetings involving local
district authorities, Government Agents, representatives of line
ministries, and the SLA. The GSL remains adamant that returns (and
supporting operations such as de-mining) will be according to a
"home-grown solution." Although access by foreigners to the Vanni
has been limited, the mine action agencies are slowly being invited
to begin surveys. For example, next week, one USG partner will
travel to Kilinochchi town to plan out work in seven priority grama
sewaka divisions. In the month of August, less than 12,000 of the
pledged 75,000 for the month actually returned home. About two
thirds of them are new IDPs from Manik Farm. There are sometimes
small movements of people from the IDP camps, such as the three
busloads of IDPs observed by USAID officials this week, heading
north out of Manik Farm.

DEMINING: The GSL has still not released a comprehensive mine
action strategy. Given the increasing (and to a considerable degree
unutilized) capacity among USG-funded mine action organizations,
frustration is mounting at the failure to provide additional
taskings and better access to the Vanni. There are indications that
the GSL is developing a de-mining approach based on a south-to-north
strategy, presumably reflecting the first phase of IDP returns that
will include some areas in Mannar. GSL leadership in this sector
and use of available resources remains uncoordinated and ad hoc.
Already, the US Embassy is beginning to think that the
recently-signed four grants with INGOs will require no-cost

extensions next July, due to slowness on the part of the GSL to
assign both survey and de-mining tasks. Demining operations
continue in Jaffna District and in the Rice Bowl area of Mannar
District, and have begun in Northern Vavuniya. Access to
Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu Districts, at this point, is still to be
negotiated and unlikely to occur soon at any sizeable scale. The US
Embassy continues to play a major coordination role among donors and
mine action NGOs, advocating for a more strategic framework and a
planning horizon that will enable our partners to develop at least
three to six months work plans. A public information/signage
campaign has not been launched to local communities in mined areas.
END SUMMARY.

¶2. (SBU) ENSURING LIVABLE CONDITIONS IN IDP CAMPS

a. Benchmark: Acute humanitarian needs are met with dignity. Key
areas are food, water/sanitation, health, shelter, and protection.

Status:
Acute humanitarian needs are being met, although most sectors are
not up to SPHERE's standards. As part of the rush to prepare for
monsoon rains, people are being moved between different zones of
Manik Farm, as well as from camps still operating in Vavuniya town
public buildings. The overall Manik Farm strategy seems to be to
release large numbers of people for returns or to host families,
move some people to higher ground within zones, and to move other
people to Zones 6A, 6B, 7, and 8 (still under construction).

Food (USAID/FFP report). Dry rations (with the USG being the major
donor) are supplied by WFP to all IDPs at Manik Farm and at other
camps. WFP is increasing the daily per capita kilocalorie total to
2100, as a partial response to high rates of malnutrition.
Generally, the transport, storage, and distribution of dry rations
works reasonably well, though there has been some concern related to
the changeover from communal cooking to individual cooking in
several zones. With the August rains, the need for better,
air-tight food storage containers at the household level was
underscored. Along with other NFRIs, the U.N. will be providing
waterproof food storage units in preparation for the monsoon season.
Complementary food - mostly condiments, along with some fresh
produce and other protein sources - is in short supply and, in some
locations, no longer available. Donors (including the USG) do not
consider complementary food a lifesaving priority, and, since it is
costly, most INGOs have depleted their resources. There is concern
that the lack of complementary food for those people who can't
afford to purchase it from camp stores will heighten an already
growing sense of frustration among IDPs. Along with other UN
agencies, WFP is developing a plan to respond to GSL announcements
that there will be a large exodus of IDPs from camps over the coming
weeks.

Water (USAID/OFDA report). Manik Farm is far from ideal from a
water supply standpoint. However, generally, people are receiving
adequate quantities of water, though this varies by zone and within
zones, and water quality is a potential concern, especially looking
ahead to likely sanitation problems resulting from increased
rainfall. The difficulty of providing water for 260,000 people has
led to a unique and fragile system. Three primary sources of water
exist within Manik Farms camps: tube wells, bowser delivery, and a
raw water pipe. The raw water pipe provides water for bathing
purposes only and is non-potable. Most zones have all three types
of sources available, but access varies by block, even within a
zone. Each block manages its own water distribution and is
protective of its water. In cases where neighboring blocks lack
water, some sharing between blocks does occur, though usually
limited to a few liters per family.

Groundwater sources currently only produce enough water to sustain a
small population. UNICEF is investigating the local
hydro-geological structures to attempt to identify a higher
production aquifer in the area. Bowsering water to Manik Farms is a

large scale operation and is very expensive and labor intensive. In
recent months, there has only been one significant interruption to
the provision of water, occurring during the recent rainfall two
weeks ago. At that time, the turbidity of the river drastically
increased due to runoff. The additional particle load caused
problems for both the river pumps and the filtration operation. The
pumps could not handle the additional sediment and had to be shut
down for a reported 30 hour period. Before the pumps were shut
down, the water treatment plants were also unable to deal with the
change in raw water quality. The additional sediment overloaded the
filters, and the treatment plants too had to be shut down. Thus,
the rain shut down the bowser operation and the piped water supply,
leaving only tube wells to supply all of Manik Farm. Since the tube
wells do not supply enough water and many IDPs lack access to tube
wells, there was a water shortage.

There are other risks to the water supply system during periods of
intense rain, and water shortage will likely become a significant
problem as rainfall increases. It is expected that the road
conditions will deteriorate rapidly, affecting a bowser operation
already stretched to fill each of the 1,000 liter tanks scattered
throughout Manik Farm once per day. The GSL is expected to put
weight restrictions on vehicles entering Manik Farm to reduce the
impact on the road surface. When larger bowsers are prohibited,
more trips will need to be made by smaller ones. As the roads
become impassable, there will be fewer deliveries to some blocks
within the zones (in Zones 2 and 4, blocks contain from 900 to 2400
individuals).

Chlorinated water contains measureable residual chlorine which
prevents drinking water from becoming contaminated during collection
and storage. The bowsered water is all chlorinated, and IDPs are
encouraged to use it for drinking water. However, most IDPs prefer
drinking water from tube wells, because it is not chlorinated and
tastes better. This water is much more likely to become
contaminated during collection and storage than the chlorinated
water supply and significantly increases the likelihood of the
spread of contagious waterborne disease. Additionally, with rising
groundwater and flooding during the monsoons, there is increased
likelihood of groundwater (and tube well) contamination from
overflowing latrines. The WASH Cluster is considering chlorination
of the tube well water. IDPs will likely attempt to catch rainwater
during water shortages. Collected rainwater will also contain no
chlorine and be susceptible to contamination by dirty hands or dirty
storage containers.

The WASH Cluster in Vavuniya is very active and functioning well.
It is developing a "Monsoon Contingency Plan" to identify potential
problems in the delivery of safe drinking water due to heavy
rainfall, and to analyze and compare options to mitigate the impact.
The cluster is doing everything it can to resolve these problems,
considering physical limitations with the site and complications of
working with the GSL.

Hygiene Promotion (USAID/OFDA report). Hygiene promotion is very
active in Manik Farm. Hygiene kits are distributed to families and
education is provided. At Manik Farm, Hygiene promotion is a
subcategory of the overall health promotion activities. There are
both paid health promoters and un-paid health volunteers. They
monitor hygiene conditions, observe IDP practices, and provide
targeted messages through direct education and theatrical
productions. Volunteers visit tents as well as public facilities
during their daily activities. The WASH Cluster provides direction
to these activities.

Sanitation (USAID/OFDA report). SPHERE standards set a goal of 20
IDPs per latrine. At Manik Farm, the number of IDPs per latrine
varies from block to block. In most blocks there are more than 20
IDPs per latrine, the number is particularly high in many blocks of
zone 2. In these locations, there is limited space for the
construction of additional latrines. They are congested, and the

latrine pits fill quickly. "Gully Suckers" (sewage pumper trailers
pulled by tractors) empty latrine pits and transport the wastewater
to an outside disposal site (wastewater ponds) approximately 3 km
away from IDP camps. The number of gully suckers is known to be
very insufficient to empty full latrine pits in a timely manner, and
many full pits remain full for long periods of time. In some
blocks, people stop using latrines that have full pits; in others,
the full latrines continue to be used and overflow. Full pits put
many blocks even further out of compliance with SPHERE guidelines
and all too frequently lead to open sewage above ground around
latrine blocks. Because soils at Manik Farm have a very low
percolation rate, water in the latrine pits does not seep into the
soils very quickly. Latrine construction includes "pour-flush squat
toilets" mounted in either a plastic or a cement latrine slab. IDPs
use water to flush the toilet, adding additional volumes of water
into the pit. This practice causes the pits to fill more quickly.
Since the GSL continues to state that they plan to release large
numbers of IDPs from Manik Farms, the WASH Cluster is hesitant to
purchase additional gully suckers as these are costly items that
would not be needed once IDPs are moved out of Manik Farm. UNICEF
is currently doing groundwater mapping to identify the blocks of
each zone where rains will cause a rising water table to flood
latrines. In these areas, latrines will likely be decommissioned.
Subsequently, shelters will likely be decommissioned due to the lack
of latrines, effectively vacating some blocks and putting greater
numbers of IDPs into others.

The current wastewater pond is reaching its capacity. There have
been five holding ponds constructed since March to hold the
wastewater from the latrine pits. Each of the constructed ponds has
filled within a month. When one fills the GSL builds a new one.
These actions are unplanned and reactionary. Since the clay soils
in the Manik Farm area have a very slow percolation rate, the ponds
hold and store the wastewater with very little infiltrating into the
ground. Reportedly a new wastewater lagoon with an engineering
design is being constructed at a new location, but this lagoon is
not expected to be completed for at least a few weeks. It is not
expected that the current pond will be able to handle the capacity
of wastewater until the new lagoon is completed, so it is likely
that another pond will be constructed. One pond has already leaked
a significant amount of wastewater into the surrounding jungle when
its berm breached. It is feasible that if a large volume of
wastewater were to escape the ponds it could find its way to the
river upstream from the main water intake points.

Storm drainage is now being constructed in Zones 0 - 4 to mitigate
flooding, and will be constructed in all zones. Engineers have
designed the storm drains and expect them to be able to handle most
rainfalls in monsoon season. The storm drains are simply trenches
dug with backhoes around each block with culverts under roadways.
If these storm drains fail, resulting flooding could expose IDPs to
wastewater from flooded latrines. Roads could be washed out if
culverts do not function properly, limiting access to some blocks.
A significant amount of maintenance on the drainage system will be
required.

Trash is being collected within the camps and transported via
tractor for burning and disposal to the vicinity of the wastewater
ponds, approximately 3 km from the IDP camps. Final disposal is not
well coordinated and large quantities of burned and partly burned
trash is scattered throughout the area surrounding the wastewater
ponds. The trash does not pose any direct threat to IDPs at this
time. If trash collection in the camps were to cease, trash could
block culverts and affect drainage.

Health (USAID/OFDA report). Health care services. Each zone has an
appropriate number of primary health care centers (PHCC), typically
two to four per zone. Aside from clinical care, the PHCCs also act
as a referral point to each zone's referral facility (essentially an
ad-hoc field hospital), which provides acute inpatient care and
basic, once-daily laboratory services. If further care is needed,

referrals are made to one of three hospitals located outside the
camps (one of which is operated by an NGO with ex-patriate staff).
Despite the cumbersome security measures, the referral services are
reasonably intact (to prevent escape attempts, security clearance
and a security chaperone are required for each out-of-camp
referral).

All health programs in the camps must be operated and staffed by the
MoH/GSL - no ex-patriate individuals are allowed to provide clinical
care to IDPs within the camps. (NGOs play purely a supportive role:
health facility structures, referral transport, medical supplies,
etc.) This has been a source of tension between the MoH and health
agencies, as there are concerns about the quality and experience of
the clinicians in the health facilities, many of whom have been
recruited from other districts on a short-term rotational basis. It
has been a challenge to recruit national physicians as many are
reluctant to trade their lucrative private practices for the
austerity and workload of the IDP health facilities.

Only recently have significant efforts been made to ensure adequate
staffing in all the camps' health facilities - yet, on occasion it
possible to still find PHCC's without clinicians. Clinicians are
consistently seeing approximately 100-125 patients per day, far
above the SPHERE standard of 50 per day. Patient utilization rates
have not been reported, and provisions for 24-hour on-call
clinicians in each zone's referral site have only recently been
made.

Also, a majority of the national staff are of Sinhalese descent, and
do not speak Tamil (the language of the IDPs) - this requires the
use of mostly unskilled translators, which is highly inefficient and
can compromise quality and patient confidentiality. This system
does, however, allow for familiarity with national clinical
protocols. Overall, the residents appear to have reasonably
equitable access to health care without discrimination, the main
limitation being the burden of the high patient-to-clinician case
load.

Reproductive health is being addressed reasonably adequately
according to standard MoH guidelines and services. For nutrition,
supplementary feeding commodities are being distributed largely by
local and international NGO's on referral basis only (one NGO
reports only being allowed to distribute supplementary foods, but
not to weigh and measure the children). Most agencies are
experiencing a heavy but decreasing caseload over the past several
weeks. Measures to address other pertinent health conditions such
as psychosocial health, chronic diseases, and trauma-related
physical disabilities will be critical to address in the upcoming
months.

Health surveillance and indicators. The foundation of the weekly
disease reporting system has just been bolstered by the "permanent"
installation public health inspectors (PHI). The mandate of these
retired MoH public health service personnel is to collect and
collate case counts, supervise home follow-up for various "diseases
of suspicion," identify environmental public health risks such as
water and sanitation conditions, and improve the reporting for
outbreaks for the early warning disease detection system. Despite
skepticism from health agencies, only over the coming weeks will it
be determined if this helps to improve the perceived inefficiency,
inaccuracy, and opacity of the camps' public health reporting.

Although many communicable diseases have been reported by the MoH,
only a few have been confirmed by laboratory testing (shigella,
hepatitis A, and varicella). Others, such as typhoid, diarrhea,
respiratory infections and pneumonia, measles, and meningitis cases
have been clinically diagnosed, but without adequate laboratory
confirmation. All reported disease trends are at much lower levels
than eight to twelve weeks ago, and are decreased or stable over the
past four weeks. However, mortality and proportional morbidities,
age and sex breakdown, and utilization rates are not being reported


(part of the difficulty is that the GSL/MoH has been reluctant to
provide even basic demographic data, such as sex and age breakdowns,
but instead has confirmed only total population numbers).

Benchmark health data comes from a single survey in mid-late May.
There were significant methodological and analytical inconsistencies
in the survey which resulted in an under-estimation of key
indicators. Nonetheless, the reported 3-month recall crude
mortality rate (CMR) was 2.8 deaths/10,000 persons/day (South Asia
baseline and emergency threshold according to SPHERE/UNICEF are 0.25
and 0.5, respectively). The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) was 1.3
deaths/10,000 persons/day (South Asia baseline and emergency
threshold are 0.6 and 1.2, respectively). Both of these indicators
are well above the emergency thresholds. (The CMR is typically
lower than the U5MR, except in circumstances when much of the adult
population, typically young male combatants, have recently been
affected by medium to large scale violent conflict. This ratio
should reverse in the follow up survey.)

Also indicative of a critical humanitarian emergency, the global and
severe acute malnutrition prevalences were 35.6% and 8.8%,
respectively; and the two-week incident diarrhea and respiratory
infection rates for childQ under 5 were 42.0% and 61.9%,
respectively. Also, household sizes are 2-3 times largerQan
allowed for in SPHERE guidelines, an environment conducive to the
spread of communicable diseases. A follow-up survey will be
performed in early September, which will be critical to monitor
since all of these main indicators were at considerably alarming
levels.

Health cluster coordination. The health sector is widely
acknowledgedQong the various agencies and sectors to have the
weakest leadership and coordination capabilities. The cluster is
led by a constantly rotating team of MoH/WHO representatives. Aside
from concerns about competence, it has been speculated that the
weakness in cluster coordination is due to an introverted and
secretive GSL MoH; also of concern is the MoH international
counterpart, health cluster co-lead (WHO), whose long-term
relationship with the MoH disallows any true independent leadership
or advocacy. (In fairness, the MoH/WHO representatives at the local
level are severely burdened by administrative duties, limiting their
ability to pro-actively address urgent health needs).

The health clusters meet every 1-2 weeks in both Colombo and
Vavuniya where updates from each sub-sector are given and disease
trend data are disseminated. The "weekly" disease trends are
reported inconsistently, and until the week of this assessment, no
MoH representative has recently been attending the health cluster
meetings in Vavuniya. Fortunately, several NGO health agencies have
been able fill in and address gaps for coordinating and advocating
for IDP health services. In terms of personnel for the health
cluster in general, key health positions within the MoH, pertinent
UN agencies, and INGO's will be experiencing turnover in the coming
weeks potentially creating a gap of critical contextual knowledge
and experience.

There has not been a widely-disseminated plan from the MoH for
health services and communicable disease control related to the
uQming monsoon season. With the monsoons imminent, health-related
concerns include structural integrity, water-related communicable
andQctor-born diseases, health facility staffing, and compromised
drinking water sources and sanitation. However, the health cluster
has recently conducted some large-scale interventions should help to
reduce the IDPs' vulnerability to public health threats such as
measles and polio campaigns (rQrted >95% coverage) and de-worming
therapy and vitamin A supplementation for children; aggressive
screening and referral of the acutely malnourished; and community
health and hygiene education campaigns.

Overall, the health sector has just reached a very minimum level of
adequate capacity. However, these recent gains are extremely

tenuous and will take a great deal of aggressive effort,
coordination, and leadership to maintain, especially in light of
some very imminent challenges such as the upcoming monsoon season,
pending resettlement and release of IDPs, and turnover of key staff
from the MoH, UN agencies, and INGOs. Factors to monitor and
address include the improvement of environmental health conditions
such as water and sanitation services and decongestion of households
and camps; provision of appropriate quantity and quality (including
language capabilities) of clinical staff; enhancement of laboratory
capacities for all referral centers and case-confirmation of
outbreak-prone diseases; and contingency plans for anticipated
flooding, with consideration of impacts on health facility
structures, community vector-control, and supply lines for health
commodities. Also, the disease surveillance and outbreak reporting
system will hopefully improve with the placement of the new PHI's -
but basic demographic data must be shared with health agencies; and
the aforementioned upcoming health and nutrition survey will provide
critical follow-up data as to the condition of the health sector and
the humanitarian emergency as a whole.

Shelter (UNHCR report). The pre-monsoonal rains resulted in
flooding and damage to shelters in Zones 1-4. In Zones 1-3, where
drainage works had commenced, the situation was more manageable.
Shelter maintenance crews are now doing repair work on shelters, and
these works tend to be fairly minor. Zone 4 was the most severely
affected by the rains, because there were no existing drainage
works. With coordination by UNHCR, partners have since intensified
their efforts to complete drainage works in all zones before the
monsoon starts in earnest. In zones which are to receive people
moved out of overcrowded conditions, UNHCR is advocating for
increased involvement of the SLA, IOM and other national actors to
accelerate the process. Communal buildings, which can be converted
to emergency shelter areas, have been identified within the zones as
part of contingency planning for the upcoming monsoon. These have
been approved by the SLA and zonal commanders. Despite ongoing
drainage and shelter strengthening activities, there is general
consensus that IDP sites will still be greatly affected by
persistent rainfall, and evacuation plans are being drawn up to take
them to public buildings in town.

Protection (UNHCR report). After conducting a mid-term review of the
UN's "Balance Sheet," the UN Humanitarian Coordinator will submit
the review to the humanitarian community and to the GSL. UNHCR will
contribute findings and recommendations from the IDP Protection
Working Group.

UNHCR has reached an agreement with the Ministry for Disaster
Management and Human Rights (MDMHR) to establish community centers
in Manik Farm. The MDMHR will coordinate these centers and ensure
that the Ministry for Child Development and Women's Empowerment,
Human Rights Commission, and the Ministry for Social Welfare have a
presence. The local NGO, the Consortium of Humanitarian Agencies
(CHA), funded by UNHCR, will establish information notice boards at
the centers. The aim of the project is to facilitate the provision
of information to IDPs and ensure that they are able to access
government protection services that they may require.

Women's and Children's Desks have been set up in Zones 0, 1, and 2,
and Women Development Officers have been assigned. UNHCR is further
supporting the Desks through monitoring visits and the provision of
office equipment. UNHCR is also working with the management of the
medical facilities to put in place a Sexual and Gender-Based
Violence reporting and response system. The Ministry for Child
Development and Women's Empowerment opened a Children's home next to
Zone 4 in Manik Farm. The home will house unaccompanied minors and
children on protective orders from Manik Farm and surrounding
districts. Help Age, with the support of UNHCR, is conducting
training for volunteers on care for the elderly in Vavuniya IDP
sites, to increase the capacity to assist elderly IDPs in the camps.
Also in Vavuniya, a bus service has been established to facilitate
visits to surrendees by their relatives accommodated in Manik Farm

sites.

b. Benchmark: The Sri Lankan Army is withdrawn to the external
periphery of camps and local police provide law and order within
camps.

Status:
The Sri Lankan Army (SLA) has mostly withdrawn to the external
periphery of the camps, where it provides perimeter security and
controls access to the camps. However, there are reports of armed
soldiers occasionally seen in some of the zones of Manik Farm.
Local police are visible in the camps, but they maintain a low-key
presence.

During the night of the first rains in Manik Farm, a few hundred
IDPs gathered at the entrance to Zone 4 to complain about conditions
and ask for assistance. The SLA was quick to respond in assisting
families to move their belongings to higher ground and to arrange
for ad hoc feeding and drinking water.

c. Benchmark: Civilian government agents are placed in charge of
IDP camps.

Status:
Each zone of Manik Farm has a zonal commander - an ex-military
civilian with good ties to the military. Within each zone, each
block has representatives from the grama sewaka level (local
government officials reflecting the normal administrative structure
outside the camps). These IDP civilian authorities meet weekly with
the zonal commanders and SLA personnel.

Mrs. P.S.M. Charles, the Government Agent (GA) for Vavuniya
District, continues to play a major, day-to-day oversight role for
the IDP camps in her district. She has also been extensively
involved in discussions about releases of IDPs from the camp (for
example, vulnerable groups) and about returns.

There has been no replacement for the previous competent authority,
who relinquished his control in July.

¶3. (SBU) ENSURING ACCESS TO INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDP)CAMPS

a. Benchmark: If the GSL cannot provide adequate goods and services
within the camps, the GSL facilitates the provision of donor-funded
goods and services to meet humanitarian needs.

Status:
No change from July report. The GSL does not restrict access of
U.N. agencies, INGOs, and NGOs that are delivering donor-funded
goods and services and/or carrying out relief activities in the IDP
camps. However, due to the fact that there are no written procedures
on access to the IDP camps, and the tendency of zonal commanders to
make their own decisions on the spot, access is at times
inconsistent.

b. Benchmark: The GSL provides reasonable permission and access for
donors and implementing partners, such as the UNHCR, ICRC, and NGOs,
to monitor distribution of donor-funded goods, programs, and
services in camps.

Status:
The GSL does not have a policy that restricts access by
humanitarian agencies that deliver emergency relief commodities and
other materials to the camps. In addition, the GSL provides
reasonable access for donors and implementing partners, such as
UNHCR and NGOs, to monitor distribution of donor-funded goods and
services in the camps. ICRC continues to discuss a revised mandate
with the GSL, and has not been involved in the IDP camps in the
North since the July report.

c. Benchmark: The GSL provides permission and access for

international organizations and implementing partners to address
protection issues.

Status:
Because of participatory assessments conducted over the past months,
UNHCR has made substantial progress coordinating with GSL
authorities on a range of protection issues involving women,
children, and vulnerable groups. UNHCR protection officers continue
to monitor potential protection risks associated with camp
overcrowding and are in close liaison with authorities at all
levels. Protection issues raised include family separations,
maintaining law and order, as well as reducing risks associated with
sexual and gender based violence.

¶4. (SBU) FULLEST POSSIBLE REGISTRATION OF IDPs

a. Benchmark: The GSL completes a database of all IDPs and shares
the database with the United Nations.

Status:
From March 15 through August 27, the Office of the President's
National Data Center entered data for approximately 155,000 out of
approximately 266,000 IDPs. This data entry process will likely
conclude in early October. Plastic ID cards (or, in the case of
Jaffna, paperwork) have been issued for approximately 105,000 IDPs.
No IDPs have been allowed to return without this ID card. The UN
does not have access to this database.

A separate database, based on a much more extensive questionnaire,
has been completed for the 265,000+ IDPs affected by the last round
of displacement this past year. This database is with the Ministry
of Resettlement and Disaster Relief Services, which has shared it
with UNHCR.

b. Benchmark: ID cards and other documents are issued to IDPs with
safeguards to prevent corruption.

Status:
As of August 27, the GSL had issued approximately 105,000 ID cards
to IDPs.

The Office of the President's National Data Center reported that
approximately 50 percent of IDPs do not possess a National ID Card
(NIC). Working with IOM, the National Data Center is planning to
reissue NICs to IDPs who do not have them.

c. Benchmark: All possible family reunifications take place.

Status:
Family Reunifications: As of August 10, the GSL had reunited 6,860
families within the IDP camps.

¶5. (SBU) EFFECTIVE DISPOSITION OF COMBATANTS

a. Benchmark: Combatants are identified, disarmed, and separated
from the general IDP population.

Status:
The Ministry of Justice reports that there are now over 11,000
ex-combatants in 13 temporary camps (public buildings such as
schools), mostly in Vavuniya District. IOM expects to have access
to these people, once they begin the socio-economic profiling
exercise, as a precursor to the rehabilitation and reintegration
programs to be undertaken over the coming year. There is no update
on the number of former combatants (2,361) mentioned in the July
report, as having been arrested under the Emergency Regulations and
the Prevention of Terrorism Act. This latter group of detainees is
located in several facilities around the country, including Colombo.
The ICRC reported in July that they have not had access to the
surrendees in Vavuniya since early July.

b. Benchmark: A formal process of demobilization, in line with
international commitments, is initiated.

Status:
No change since the July report. A steering committee on
reintegration, chaired by the Ministry of Disaster Management and
Human Rights, approved the National Framework Proposal for
Reintegration of Ex-Combatants into Civilian Life in Sri Lanka on
July 30. The Ministry of Justice has been given responsibility for
rehabilitation and reintegration to a new Commissioner General for
Rehabilitation, Major General Daya Ratnayake, has been named. At
the same time, the Ministry of Defense has requested the IOM to
assist with preparation of facilities to serve as demobilization
camps in Vavuniya and to begin profiling surrendees to identify
counseling and training needs. IOM, with a grant from USAID, has
already initiated this process in the Eastern Province. The process
will be guided by the framework, which defines legal and practical
issues related to reintegration. It is anticipated that since the
framework has been approved and profiling of former combatants could
begin soon, an action plan will be drafted in collaboration with
relevant ministries and international partners.

c. Benchmark: No new children are recruited and previous child
soldiers are identified, separated, and put into a UN program.

Status:
No new children were recruited since the end of the war in May
¶2009.

As of July 15, UNICEF had registered 455 former child combatants,
including 299 males and 156 females, in Vavuniya. UNICEF will be
updating data on child combatants in September.

¶6. (SBU) RELEASE OF "NO-RISK" POPULATIONS

a. Benchmark: The GSL establishes criteria to define "no-risk"
IDPs, in addition to the elderly and disabled.

Status:
According to the SLA Commander in Vavuniya, the GSL is in the
process of expanding its definition of "no-risk" IDPs from just the
elderly (over 60 years of age) to include the disabled from birth,
severe medical cases, pregnant women, the mentally handicapped, and
small children with caregivers. The U.N. continues to advocate for
the timely release of persons with specific needs, as well as for
broadening the categories of people eligible for immediate release.

b. Benchmark: Release of "no-risk" IDPs to host families and
communities continues at an acceptable pace (on track for 25%-50% by
the end of calendar 2009).

Status:
As of August 19, 2009 the GSL had released 6,237 persons from IDP
camps into host families and elders' homes. Some people estimate
that, with the expanded criteria mentioned above, up to 30,000
vulnerable people could be released in the near future.

¶7. (SBU) ESTABLISHING AN IDP RETURNS PROCESS

a. Benchmark: The GSL widely communicates a voluntary returns
strategy for the North, including for IDPs.

Status:
The GSL has not communicated a voluntary returns strategy
for the north, including for IDPs. Whereas in July, Senior
Presidential Advisor Basil Rajapaksa had briefed U.N. heads of
agencies on the GSL's IDP 180-Day Returns Plan and pledged the
return of 75,000 people in August, there were no more than 12,000
returns during the month. Now, the GSL is estimating that 100,000
IDPs will return during the month of September. With unmet promises
in the past, these predictions of returns are viewed with skepticism

by the international community. When returns do take place, they
are unannounced, making it difficult for the UN to respond (UNHCR
with returns kits, IOM with transport support, WFP with food
rations). The UNHCR released two important documents in draft to a
gathering of major donors this past week: 1) The UNHCR Operations
Plan Support to Phased IDP Return in Northern Sri Lanka, and 2)
Resettlement and Decongestion of IDP Camps Prior to Monsoon Season.
The US Embassy is working with other donors and the UN to develop
positions regarding support to GSL returns/resettlement, releases to
host families, and any further assistance to Manik Farm. A growing
feeling among donors is that lack of freedom of movement for IDPs in
camps in the North contravenes international, and possibly Sri
Lankan, law, in terms of the detention of people without charges.
In the coming weeks, the international community will discuss the
options for further assistance to Manik Farm and other "temporary"
IDP sites, given the context of monsoonal rains, the lack of freedom
of movement, and progress made on returns/resettlement and releases
to host families.

b. Benchmark: The GSL begins voluntary returns to areas of high
priority.

Status:
The GSL has not yet begun voluntary returns in significant numbers.
As of the end of August, likely returns for this month are 11,365
IDPs, of whom 8,024 are from the new caseload (locations like Manik
Farm). Many of these people have returned to homes in the East, and
none have returned to locations in the Vanni.


¶8. (SBU) CONDUCTING DEMINING ACTIVITIES:

The US Government is contributing $6.6 million this year to four
INGO mine action agencies operating in the North. In July, this
additional funding opened the door for US Embassy officials to
encourage the GSL to be more strategic with its de-mining task
orders, in support of its proclaimed intent to accelerate IDP
returns to the North. However, the GSL did not reveal a strategic
framework for de-mining or IDP returns which was realistic in its
timeframe, numerical goals, or locations. Meanwhile, the US Embassy
instructed these four INGO partners to ramp up operations (hiring
survey and de-mining teams to maximum potential), in anticipation
that there would be an eventual, logical, returns-based push on the
part of the GSL to increase mine action. However, two months into
this 12-month grant cycle, there are 15 unutilized survey teams,
eight unutilized de-mining teams, and soon-to-be seven additional
de-mining teams by mid-September, looking for work. When the US
Embassy communicated its concern to high levels of the GSL, the
response was less than courteous.

a. Benchmark: The GSL releases mine action strategy for Mannar and
continues surveys for remaining areas in the North by July 15,2009.

Status:
The GSL has not released a mine action strategy. Slowly, though,
it is possible to divine a correlation between de-mining and IDP
returns. Some of the recent survey and de-mining task orders in the
Rice Bowl, for example, will support returns to that area.
Strategically, the mine action agencies have been asked to focus
their efforts in the Rice Bowl, moving north through Manthai West
(in Mannar District), and in North Vavuniya, moving north toward
Kilinochchi. A reluctance by the GSL to assign more task orders for
survey work in the Vanni will mean a slower-than-necessary pace of
area reduction, or releasing land for IDPs whose homes are in the
districts of Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu. IDP returns to those
districts, as a result of mine action work, will not occur in
significant numbers until 2010.

b. Benchmark: Demining begins in support of areas of high priority
for IDP returns by August 15, 2009.

Status:
Demining operations are underway in Jaffna District and the Rice
Bowl of Mannar District. These districts will receive returning
IDPs during the first phase of the unfolding GSL
returns/resettlement strategy.

c. Benchmark: The GSL coordinates with international and local
demining organizations on surveys and mine-removal efforts.

Status:
The GSL has improved its coordination with INGO and NGO mine action
agencies, and there is a promise of additional work in the month
ahead. However, the GSL has not yet utilized many of the increased
survey and de-mining teams developed as a result of State/WRA
funding. Neither has the GSL indicated where SLA de-mining
operations are taking place, although the assumption is that they
are working in priority areas of the Vanni where the GSL does not
feel comfortable admitting INGOs.

d. Benchmark: A public information/signage campaign is launched to
local communities in mined areas.

Status:
A public information/signage campaign has not been launched in local
communities.

COHN

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USDOC FOR 4321/ITA/MAC/OLAC/PEACHER

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ETRD ECON PREL AR VE
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: CRISTINA GOES TO CARACAS TO GRAB COLOMBIAN
MARKET SHARE

REFs: A. CARACAS 1062
¶B. CARACAS 690

¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de
Kirchner (CFK) and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez met August 11 in
Caracas to discuss bilateral trade issues and sign 22 commercial
accords valued at an announced US$1.1 billion. These trade
agreements followed Chavez's recently announced intent to seek
replacements for Colombian imports as punishment for Colombia's
negotiations with the USG for expanded access to that country's
military bases. Kirchner and Chavez were slated to discuss the
status of BRV plans to nationalize additional holdings of
Argentina's Techint Group. According to news reports, Kirchner
strongly endorsed Chavez and highlighted the importance of
Argentine-Venezuelan ties, despite the criticism Chavez has received
in Argentina over the recent expropriation of Techint Group's
subsidiary investments in Venezuela. END SUMMARY.

KIRCHNER AND CHAVEZ SIGN TRADE AGREEMENTS
-----------------------------------------

¶2. (U) CFK followed her August 9-10 trip to Ecuador for the
re-inauguration of President Correa with an overnight trip to
Caracas, where she led a 100-member trade mission. She and Chavez
signed 22 trade agreements purportedly worth US$1.1 billion. The
wide range of accords includes plans for Venezuela to import
agricultural machinery, leather, and several foodstuffs, including
beef, rice, poultry, and milk. CFK sought to take advantage of
diplomatic tensions between Chavez and Colombian President Alvaro
Uribe over Colombia's negotiations to allow the U.S. greater access
to Colombian military bases. In the immediate wake of Chavez's
threat to freeze trade relations with Colombia, he and CFK announced
August 11 that Venezuela will import 10,000 cars (including
Argentine-manufactured Fords) from Argentina before the end of the
year. Reportedly, the Argentine auto industry exported to Venezuela
about 12,000 units in 2007 and 7,000 units in 2008, but has yet to
export a single vehicle to Venezuela in 2009. News reports estimate
the agreement to import 10,000 Argentine cars could be worth some
$150 million.

CHAVEZ PLANS TO NATIONALIZE TECHINT GROUP'S INVESTMENTS
--------------------------------------------- ----------

¶3. (U) On August 10, the BRV made a payment of $260 million to
Ternium, Techint's flat steel division, the second payment as part
of a settlement for the 2008 renationalization of Venezuelan steel
maker Sidor (Siderurgica del Orinoco), of which Ternium had held a
majority share. This installment came just a day prior to the
meeting between CFK and Chavez where the status of three other
Techint subsidiaries was expected to be discussed. While the price
dispute regarding the BRV's 2008 takeover of Ternium-held equity in
Sidor had been settled according to announcements on May 7, Chavez
announced on May 22 his intent to nationalize Tenaris's holdings
(Tenaris is Techint's steel pipe division) in three other steel
product firms in Venezuela; Techint has a majority share in two of
the three. Following the August 11 meeting, news sources reported
that Chavez has yet to begin analyzing compensation for these other
Techint Group holdings. CFK reportedly praised Chavez and urged
Argentine business leaders not to "demonize" him for his plans to
nationalize "strategic" industries.

¶4. (U) In May 2007, Ternium Sidor was targeted by Chavez for
nationalization. Ternium, Techint's flat steel manufacturing
division, owned nearly 60% of Sidor equity, while Chavez moved to
increase the 20% stake of the Venezuelan state to 79.7%. Discussion
of terms went on until an agreement was signed on May 7, 2009, when
Techint accepted a settlement of $1.97 billion, ending the long
price dispute (Ternium originally purchased Sidor for $1.79 billion
in 1997). The BRV made an initial deposit of $400 million at the
time of the agreement (Ref B). $945 million is scheduled to be paid
over six equal quarterly installments, and the remaining balance, to
be paid in October 2010, will be adjusted according to benchmark
light, sweet crude price.

¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: This was CFK's third trip to Caracas in her 20
months as president. Like previous agreements between these two
governments, the newly announced deals are unlikely to lead to a
significant increase in bilateral trade. The Argentine President
was even quoted by newspapers as describing the agreement to export
rice as "the most important in Argentine history." Post does not
expect actual trade from these commercial accords to match the hype.
While they may result in some trade diversion from Colombia to
Argentina's benefit, the actual volume of Argentine exports from the
announced deals is likely to be modest. END COMMENT.

ADDITIONAL BACKGROUND ON TECHINT
--------------------------------


¶6. (U) Since its inception in 1945, Compagnia Tecnica
Internazionale (later renamed Techint) has evolved under the
leadership of Argentina's Rocca family into one of Argentina's most
prominent "Multilatinas" (a Latin-American based multinational
corporation), currently holding stock in over 100 companies in over
35 countries, while employing over 53,100 permanent employees. The
Techint Group, including both public and private companies, has an
annual turnover of nearly $26 billion. Led by its two primary
divisions, Tenaris and Ternium, Techint Group is comprised of
several subsidiaries, collectively making it Latin America's largest
steel making company and the largest manufacturer of seamless steel
tubes in the world. Tenaris focuses on the manufacturing of steel
piping and is an important supplier to the global oil industry,
while Ternium concentrates on flat steel production. The Techint
Group also consists of additional companies that specialize in other
industries.

TENARIS:

Through its subsidiaries, Tenaris engages in the manufacturing of
steel pipe products for industrial applications, particularly for
the energy industry. The company operates in three divisions:
Tubes, Projects, and Others. The Tubes division produces and sells
seamless and welded steel tubular products, while also providing
related services for energy and industrial applications. The
Projects division engages in the production and sale of welded steel
pipe products, typically used in the construction of major pipeline
projects. The Others division manufacturers sucker rods and welded
steel pipes for electric conduits, industrial equipment, and raw
materials. In addition to serving oil, gas, and engineering
companies, Tenaris also engages in the constructing oil and gas
gathering, transportation, and processing facilities. The company,
which is based in Luxembourg, currently operates in North America,
South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Far East, and
Oceania.

TERNIUM:

Ternium is engaged in the manufacturing and processing of flat and
long steel products for several industries, including automotive,
construction, container, food, energy, home appliances, and capital
goods. Ternium operates in three divisions: Flat Steel Products,
Long Steel Products, and Others. The Flat Steel Products division
produces various flat steel products, including: hot rolled coils
and sheets; cold rolled coils and sheets; tin plates; welded pipes;
hot dipped galvanized and electrogalvanized sheets; pre-painted
sheets; and other customized products. The Long Steel Products
division manufactures long steel products, such as billets, wire
rods, and bars. The Other Products division is engaged in the
production of pig iron, pellets, and pre-engineered metal buildings.
Based out of Luxembourg, Ternium operates primarily in South and
Central America, North America, and Europe.

OTHER OPERATIONS:

Other companies within the Techint Group include: Techint
Engineering & Construction, Tenova, Tecpetrol, and Humanitas.
Techint Engineering & Construction is internationally involved with
the building of pipelines, oil and gas facilities, and metals and
mining plants. Tenova offers a number of technologies and capital
goods for the metals, mining, power, raw material, and rock wool
industries worldwide. Tecpetrol is involved in oil and gas
exploration and development, as well as in gas transmission and
distribution projects in the South American region. Humanitas has
established a relevant presence in the supply of health services in
Italy.

KELLY

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JERUSALEM ALSO ICD
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL
PARIS ALSO FOR POL
ROME FOR MFO

SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS

SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION

--------------------------------
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT:
--------------------------------

¶1. Iran

¶2. Mideast

-------------------------
Key stories in the media:
-------------------------

The media reported that Israeli and Hamas spokespeople have
presented conflicting reports on progress in the talks about the
possible release of Gilad Shalit. YediotQs Arab affairs
correspondent Smadar Perry quoted a senior Egyptian source as saying
that the U.S. is involved Qbehind the scenesQ in the negotiations,
mainly on the Syrian track. (One of the Hamas sources who talked to
Israel Radio said that an (unspecified) Qthird partyQ is involved in
the parley.) According to Yediot, should Bashar Assad show
Qpositive involvementQ he would get a Qbonus in the form of a new
American ambassador to Syria,Q the first after 2004. Yediot said
that the American premise is that a prisoner exchange deal will
remove a political obstacle and will facilitate the introduction of
President Obama's plan for implementing the Arab peace initiative.

All media reported that a special prayer gathering was held last
night at the Western Wall to celebrate Gilad ShalitQs 23th birthday
-- his fourth one in captivity.

Leading media reported that two Israelis were lightly wounded
yesterday evening when Palestinians opened fire on their car north
of Ramallah. Israel Radio reported that an organization called the
QAl-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades-the Imad Mughniyah GroupsQ claimed
responsibility for the attack. The radio reported that settlers
blamed the lifting of roadblocks in the area for the incident.

The Jerusalem Post reported that Bill Van Esveld, the
Jerusalem-based researcher for Human Rights Watch (HRW), told the
newspaper that there is evidence to indicate that war crimes were
committed by Palestinians in the Gaza Strip who allegedly used
civilians as "human shields" during Operation Cast Lead. The Post
says that this is the first time an international human rights
organization has publicly made such a statement. However, the
newspaper cited HRW as saying that the PalestiniansQ action does not
justify the armyQs response. The newspaper reported that HRW is due
to hold a press conference to present its new report on Cast Lead
and specifically the alleged killing by IDF soldiers of 11
Palestinians who were holding white flags.

Maariv and The Jerusalem Post reported that on Sunday U.S.
Republicans, headed by former Arkansas Governor and presidential
hopeful Mike Huckabee, a candidate in the 2008 presidential
elections, will attend a festive dinner at the controversial
Shepherd Hotel in East Jerusalem to signal President Obama that
construction in East Jerusalem will continue. Cabinet members and
Knesset members will be among the 100 attendees.

HaQaretz reported that Israel has recently been putting up more
obstacles for foreign nationals who enter the country if they have
family, work, business, or academic ties in the West Bank. It now
restricts their movements to "the Palestinian Authority only." The
people concerned are citizens of countries that have diplomatic ties
with Israel, mainly Western countries. HaQaretz noted that, in
imposing such restrictions, Israel is in breach of the Oslo
Accords.

The Jerusalem Post reported that yesterday senior Fatah leaders in
Gaza demanded an investigation into alleged fraud in this weekQs
election for the factionQs Central Committee.

The Jerusalem Post and Maariv reported that yesterday the Israel
Antiquities Authority (IAA) condemned the World Archeological
Congress for holding an international conference in Ramallah
dedicated to Qovercoming structural violenceQ and the negative
impact of politics on archeology. The IAA also complained about
Israel being excluded from the conference.

Maariv and other media reported that DM Ehud Barak has boosted the
number of IDF Civil Administration inspectors from 40 to 60, in
order to tighten supervision of construction in the unauthorized
settler outposts.

The Jerusalem Post and other media reported that the IDFQs Civil
Administration has issued stop-work orders on 12 modular homes that
it claims have been illegally placed at the edge of a street on a
hilltop within the Kochav YaQakov. (Yesterday, Israel Radio had
cited Peace NowQs criticism about construction there.) The
Jerusalem Post reported that yesterday MaQaleh Adumim Mayor Benny
Kashriel protested a sudden governmental freeze on a planned
19-dunam (4.7-acre) industrial project in his settlement city. The
newspaper quoted Kashriel as saying that Netanyahu Qis playing into
the hands of the Americans. He is doing above and beyond what they
want.

Leading media quoted Deputy FM Danny Ayalon as saying yesterday that
Syria should deal directly with Israel and not insist on indirect
negotiations through Turkey as if Israel had a plague or was a
pariah.

Maariv reported that the Iranian government has requested that the
U.N.Qs International Atomic Energy Agency pass a resolution next
month forbidding an attack on nuclear installations.

Yediot (Shimon Shiffer) quoted a senior Israeli defense source as
saying that Hizbullah has established an advanced base in Venezuela,
from which it is gathering intelligence in South America --
especially in Brazil, Argentina, and Peru. The source was quoted as
saying that the group is planning a terrorist attack in retaliation
for the February 2008 assassination of its top operative Imad
Mughniyah.

The Jerusalem Post reported that the Central Conference of American
Rabbis, the largest rabbinic organization of Reform Judaism, has
urged Israelis to reject Qproposed laws that would limit the
citizenship rightsQ of Israeli Arabs and has called on the Israeli
government to increase funding for Israeli Arab infrastructure and
education.

The Jerusalem Post reported that American, German, and Israeli
students are working together in an archeological project at Ramat
Rachel, south of Jerusalem (inside the Green Line). The daily says
that the 21 American students come from Moravian College and the
associated Moravian Theological Seminary in eastern Pennsylvania.

HaQaretz reported that the swine flu is rapidly spreading in Israel:
The Health Ministry said yesterday that the number of people who
have caught the disease rose 3.6% in the past two weeks. Half of
the cases are patients under 30.

Makor Rishon-Hatzofe cited the results of a Rasmussen Reports
survey:
- 70% of Americans view Israel as an ally.
- 80% of Americans say that the Palestinian leaders should recognize
IsraelQs right to exist.

The Jerusalem Post cited the results of an international survey
conducted by the International Committee of the Red Cross about the
60th anniversary of the ratification of the Geneva Conventions. The
Israeli poll, carried out by the local polling firm Geocartography,
shows the vast majority of Israelis have heard of the treaties but
that 46% don't think they have contributed anything to preventing
wars from escalating.

---------
¶1. Iran:
---------

Block Quotes:
-------------

"The Secret Sextet"

Senior commentator Ari Shavit wrote in the independent, left-leaning
Ha'aretz (8/13): QAs everyone knows, Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet is
a mess. Big, bloated and mediocre, it is stressed out and
flip-flopping, running scared and fundamentally flawed. However,
this wretched cabinet contains one apparatus worthy of special
mention -- the sextet. This is the supreme strategic team consisting
of Netanyahu, Ehud Barak, Avigdor Lieberman, Moshe Ya'alon, Dan
Meridor, and Benny Begin. The most disturbing information on the
sextet's agenda regards Iran. National Security Adviser Uzi Arad
was right -- the earth is scorched The sextet will have to make
fatal decisions in the near future. The world is talking about plan
A (dialogue) and preparing for plan B (sanctions). But the dialogue
is a joke and the sanctions could be too little, too late. If the
United States doesn't come to its senses the dilemma will be in plan
C (to bomb or not to bomb). This dilemma does not bode well. So
the sextet faces a double challenge -- it must think of an
alternative creative idea on the one hand, and get America to sober
up on the other. The democratic rebellion against Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has created a golden opportunity. Begin,
Meridor, Ya'alon, Lieberman, Barak, Netanyahu, and Obama must use it
swiftly and resolutely.

------------
¶2. Mideast:
------------

Block Quotes:
-------------

¶I. "Regards from Bethlehem"

Regional correspondent Ronni Shaked wrote in the mass-circulation,
pluralist Yediot Aharonot (8/13): QThe new Fatah leadership, which
is much younger and dynamic, and which is comprised mainly of
residents of the territories, is the most important achievement that
was made by the Fatah Central Conference in Bethlehem.... But
victory at the conference is still not victory on the Palestinian
street. In order to win back the public's faith, to restore Fatah's
lost glory as a national liberation movement, the new leadership is
going to have to prove first and foremost the absence of
malfeasance. The challenges facing this new leadership are on the
verge of the impossible.... Let no one harbor any illusions. One
certainly must take into account the possibility that the new
leadership of Fatah will be more militant and extreme in its
demands. Netanyahu must understand that improving the economy and
introducing relief measures that ease daily life will not serve as a
substitute for progress in the negotiations and the establishment of
an independent Palestinian state. Ghnaim, Dahlan, Rajoub, Tirawi,
and Barghouti (irrespective of whether he is released from prison)
are likely to overcome the enmity among them and to rally around
them the Palestinians, who currently don't have the energy for
another Intifada, to join in another round of violence, in the event
that they should be convinced that they will not be able to get
Israel to budge by any other means. Business can be done with the
new Fatah leadership. The ball is in our court (as well).




II. "Outflanking Olmert from the Left"

Settler leader Israel Harel wrote in the independent, left-leaning
HaQaretz (8/13): QAccording to the hints that [Gilad ShalitQs]
captors have been leaking by way of the Arab media, the Likud
government (Likud, of all parties) is planning to pay -- with a few
cosmetic changes here and there designed to paper over the shame --
the price that Ehud Olmert refused to pay.... Putting an end to the
Shalit stand-off, some say, would allow Israel to focus on the
really important issue -- Iran. Yet capitulating to Hamas would
harm Israel's primary peacetime weapon -- deterrence. Deterrence is
now Israel's main weapon against Iran, against a terrorist
escalation by Hamas or Hizbullah, and against the Qbelligerent
optionsQ entertained by the leaders of Fatah, both Qold guardQ and
Qyoung guard,Q at their convention. Surrendering to Hamas would
deal a grievous blow to this deterrence. It would also harm the
government's image in the eyes of the region's other pot-stirrers,
including the United States, Russia and the European Union.... Gilad
has to be brought home -- it is our duty. And he will be brought
home. But under no circumstances through capitulation.

III. "The Palestinians Aren't Suckers, Either"

Liberal columnist Larry Derfner wrote in the conservative,
independent Jerusalem Post (8/13): Q[Netanyahu] just can't expect
Abbas, as president of the Palestinian Authority, to cooperate....
Why should he want to negotiate a new deal when he's being told it
won't be anywhere near as fair as the one he turned down last year,
or even the one his predecessor turned down nine years ago? Yes,
Palestinian leaders are an obstinate breed. While I don't blame
Abbas or Arafat for rejecting Israel's offers -- we're pretty
exacting when it comes to land disputes, too -- I blame them for
refusing ever to acknowledge publicly that Israel was sincerely
trying to reach an agreement. Such an acknowledgment could have
improved the climate for peacemaking tremendously. However, while
Abbas, like Yasser Arafat before him, has been obstinate, he has
never done what Netanyahu is doing now -- wiped the slate clean and
presented a new offer that marks a wholesale retreat from what his
side was offering before.... The sad thing is that Netanyahu and
most Israelis think we're being reasonable and Abbas is being
radical, or rejectionist, or maximalist or something. I wish Abbas
would take my advice and negotiate with us in kind, treating Israel
as Qdisputed territoryQ just as Netanyahu treats the West Bank. It
might be a learning experience for us. It might teach us a little
humility, show us that we're not the only people who can claim
rights to land around here. It's not going to happen, of course.
We are at a stalemate in the peace process. I just hope that in
trying to break this stalemate, the Obama administration doesn't
flinch from the truth that today, the main obstacle to peace is not
in Ramallah, it's in Jerusalem.

MORENO

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PARIS ALSO FOR POL
ROME FOR MFO

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TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS

SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION

--------------------------------
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT:
--------------------------------

Mideast

-------------------------
Key stories in the media:
-------------------------

All media highlighted what many of them call a Qfrontal
confrontationQ between PM Benjamin Netanyahu and President Barack
Obama over the planned construction of some 20 apartments for Jewish
residents in the Shepherd Hotel, in East Jerusalem's Sheikh Jarrah
neighborhood. Media reported that the State Department summoned
IsraelQs new Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren. HaQaretz also
reported that local British diplomats have recently asked their U.S.
colleagues to pressure Israel to cancel planned work at the site.
HaQaretz reported that American sources have informed both Israel
and the PA that the U.S. views East Jerusalem as no different than
an illegal West Bank outpost with regard to its demand for a freeze
on settlement construction. The U.S. has demanded that the project
be halted, but during yesterdayQs cabinet meeting, PM Benjamin
Netanyahu noted that "Israel will not agree to edicts of this kind
in East Jerusalem." "United Jerusalem is the capital of the Jewish
people in the State of Israel, and our sovereignty over the city is
not subject to appeal," he continued. "Our policy is that Jerusalem
residents can purchase apartments anywhere in the city. This has
been the policy of all Israeli governments. There is no ban on
Arabs buying apartments in the west of the city, and there is no ban
on Jews building or buying in the city's east. This is the policy
of an open city.Q The media quoted Netanyahu as saying that the U.S.
has crossed a red line, especially after he told the President that
he will not make concessions on Jerusalem. Major media reported
that Netanyahu told the cabinet that he was QsurprisedQ by U.S.
pressure over the East Jerusalem project. The Jerusalem Post
reported that senior Israeli diplomatic officials told the daily
yesterday that JerusalemQs decision to leak to the media U.S.
displeasure at the plan to build the apartments in East Jerusalem
was designed to clarify to the Americans that construction in the
capital should not be lumped together with any limitations Israel
may agree to on building in the settlements. Maariv quoted an
Israeli diplomat as saying that U.S.-Israel relations are Qbleak and
devoid of trust.
Yediot (Shimon Shiffer) reported that, following NetanyahuQs
statements, a senior source in the State Department said to the
newspaper: QWe expect all parties to honor their commitments, and
this means that Israel has to stop construction in sensitive areas,
including East Jerusalem. The President and the Secretary of State
have made this clear to the Israeli government both publicly and
privately. This kind of activity has to stop. Our policy on the
matter of Jerusalem has not changed. The status of Jerusalem will
be determined in the negotiations on a final status arrangement.
This has been agreed upon by Israel and the Palestinians.Q Shiffer
also cited the belief sources close to the PM that in the past few
weeks, the U.S. administration has lost the momentum with which it
embarked on solving the worldQs problems and the intricate Middle
East issues. Yediot quoted senior sources in NetanyahuQs bureau as
saying that ObamaQs Cairo speech does not lead to creating a
different reality.

The Jerusalem Post and Israel Radio quoted Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton as saying in Delhi yesterday that the U.S.
administration is trying to reach an agreement with Israel on
settlements.

Yesterday Yediot reported that officials in Washington have reached
the conclusion that if they want to move forward with the peace
process, it would be better to apply pressure on Jerusalem rather
than on the Palestinians to start the final-status negotiations as
quickly as possible. According to the newspaper, Special Envoy
George Mitchell intends to present a timetable for the resumption of
the talks during his upcoming visit. Yesterday Maariv reported
that, in light of the chilly relations between Israel and the U.S.,
Mitchell has put off his arrival in Israel, which had been scheduled
for today, until next Monday.

Maariv reported that U.S. National Security Advisor General James
Jones is expected to visit Israel but that he will not discuss the
settlement issue.

As Defense Secretary Robert Gates is expected to arrived in Israel
next week for talks on TehranQs nuclear program, The Jerusalem Post
reported that a senior U.S. defense official has told the daily that
an Israeli strike on Iran could be profoundly destabilizing and
would affect U.S. interests. The official reportedly warned that
Israel needed to take its relationship with America into account in
contemplating any such attacks.
Israel Radio quoted the East Jerusalem daily Al-Quds as saying,
based on Washington sources, that the U.S. administration might let
Israel build hundreds of housing units in the settlements in
exchange for Israeli recognition of permanent borders to be
determined by the administration. Al-Quds reportedly wrote that the
administration wants mandatory referenda on the issue to be held in
Israel and the PA.

The media reported that yesterday, in a briefing to the cabinet
meeting, Shin Bet head Yuval Diskin dismissed HamasQs endeavor to
appear more moderate. HaQaretz and other media reported that PM
Netanyahu rebuked Diskin for commenting on political issues.

The Jerusalem Post reported that, Qin what could be the largest
one-time easing of restrictions on Palestinians,Q the IDF is
considering a list of gestures ahead of Ramadan, including the
removal of over 100 dirt roadblocks throughout the West Bank.
Yesterday the newspaper reported that Obama administration officials
have praised Netanyahu for steps he has taken to ease the condition
of Palestinians.

Leading media quoted former PM Ehud Olmert as saying in a Washington
Post op-ed piece that the U.S.-Israeli understandings on settlements
were a prerequisite for the Annapolis process and that the U.S.
focus on the issue is Qnot useful.

Yesterday The Jerusalem Post reported that Ambassador Michael Oren
is reaching out to the Jewish Left.

The Jerusalem Post quoted Claude Gueant, Secretary-General of the
Elysee Palace, as saying yesterday on the French radio station
Europe 1 that Syrian President Bashar Assad has promised to secure
the release of Gilad Shalit.

The media reported that yesterday the Ministerial Committee for
Legislation passed a revised bill for the so-called Nakba Law, which
calls for prohibiting government bodies from funding any activity
that could undermine the foundations of the state or contradict its
basic values. The original bill banned individuals from marking
Israel's Independence Day as a day of mourning or sadness. Had that
bill passed, offenders could have been imprisoned for up to three
years.

HaQaretz reported that Kadima Knesset Member Shaul Mofaz is
positioning himself to challenge his partyQs chair Tzipi Livni again
for the leadership of his party.

Yediot reported that Swiss FM Micheline Calmy-Rey told AFP that
Hamas is a key player in the Middle East and that it cannot be
ignored.

The Jerusalem Post reported that a Judea and Samaria [i.e. West
Bank] Police source told the newspaper yesterday that police have
carried out a wide-ranging probe into suspicions that the World
Zionist OrganizationQs Settlement Division Department illegally
transferred Palestinian-owned land to the veteran Ofra settlement.
HaQaretz carried a similar story.

HaQaretz reprinted a Daily Forward article on an anti-Semitic speech
to the convention of the Islamic Society of North America, which has
QmarredQ interfaith endeavors.

Yesterday HaQaretz quoted a GOI source in Jerusalem as saying that
UNIFIL had precise information bout an explosives cache that
exploded in a southern Lebanese village last Tuesday and about a
number of other installations where Hizbullah is storing rockets,
but that UNIFIL had done nothing about it. The Jerusalem Post
reported that, ahead of the renewal of UNIFILQs mandate this summer,
the Defense Ministry is hoping that the UN will issue new rules of
engagement for the peacekeeping force that will enable it to search
Lebanese villages without prior coordination with the Lebanese Armed
Forces.

The Jerusalem Post reported that yesterday senior PA negotiator Saeb
Erekat played down a recent meeting with Iranian FM Manouchehr
Mottaki in Sharm el-Sheikh. The newspaper cited the GOIQs anger
over the meeting.

Maariv reported that the Beersheva District court sentenced a
15-year-old would-be suicide bomber from Beit Hanun (northern Gaza)
to 10 yearsQ imprisonment.

The Jerusalem Post reported that yesterday Dov Weisglass, bureau
chief of former PM Ariel Sharon, firmly denied allegations raised
last week by estranged senior PLO figure Farouk Qaddoumi that Sharon
and PA President Mahmoud Abbas conspired to kill Yasser Arafat. The
newspaper reported that yesterday the PA announced that Al
Jazeera-TV would be allowed to resume works in the West Bank. The
station had broadcast QaddoumiQs allegations.
E
Leading media reported that an organization of Iraqi Jews in Israel
is organizing QrootsQ trips to northern Iraq. Yesterday Yediot
reported that an Al-Qaida Web site has threatened would-be Israeli
tourists.

HaQaretz cited data collected over the past two weeks by the NGO
Hotline for Migrant Workers that, out of 221 people who appeared
before the custody tribunal after being detained over the past two
weeks by the Immigration Authority's Oz unit, 65 percent are
asylum-seekers from Sudan and Eritrea who cannot be deported and
have been released by the tribunal judge. The figures reportedly
show that another 16 percent of those detained came to Israel
legally and lost their residency status because they left their
employer. These figures contrast with statements by the Oz unit
that it detains only illegal residents, and holds refugees with
proper documentation only in order to take them to the area where
they are permitted to live, beyond the central coastal plain
region.

The media quoted Attorney-General Menachem Mazuz as saying that
former Shas leader Aryeh Deri may have to wait for another year
until he can return to politics.

Maariv and The Jerusalem Post reported that yesterday Israel
extradited Micky Louis Mayon, an American citizen who is wanted for
many federal crimes, among them membership in the Ku Klux Klan,
burning federal judges' cars, and several other charges of severe
violence.

All media reported that Meir Amit, who headed IDF Intelligence and
Mossad in the Q60s and served as a centrist cabinet minister in the
Begin government in the late Q70s, died on Friday at the age of 88.

The media mark 40 years of the Apollo 11 moon landing.

--------
Mideast:
--------

Block Quotes:
-------------

¶I. "His Jerusalem"

Senior columnist Nahum Barnea wrote on page one of the
mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot (7/20): QTorn between
the pressures from Washington and the pressures from the right wing
branch of his party and his coalition, Netanyahu chose the easy
solution: Jerusalem. Like then, in the Western Wall tunnel affair,
he thinks that the magic word QJerusalemQ will rally behind him not
only the right wing in Israel, but also the political center in
Israel, a majority of U.S. Jewry and a majority of the members of
Congress. In other words: He wishes to divert the clash with the
Obama administration from the question of construction in the
settlements, where he does not enjoy real support, either here or
there, to a more convenient playing field. This could have been
brilliant if it were not so transparent.... The blame for the
deterioration [in U.S.-Israeli relations] can be pinned on the
statements made by Obama and Clinton. It can be pinned on the
statements made by Netanyahu and Lieberman. The question of who is
to blame is less important than the question of what should be done
now. Netanyahu gave the signal yesterday: The clash is to be
escalated. In two or three weeks, when he becomes alarmed and wants
to get down from his high horse, he will discover that the guys from
the Likud are waiting for him below.

II. "Taking the Offensive"

Diplomatic correspondent Ben Caspit wrote on page one of the
popular, pluralist Maariv (7/20): QAfter four months of playing
defense, Benjamin Netanyahu took the offensive yesterday for the
first time. Until now, it was a one-sided game. Suddenly, for a
moment, it looks balanced.... NetanyahuQs move yesterday was a wise
tactical move. Obama backed him into a corner with the settlements?
So Netanyahu, with a maneuver of his own, takes him into the
opposite corner, with Jerusalem. Just as the settlements are a
consensus in the U.S. and around the world, Jerusalem is a consensus
in Israel and within the Jewish people.
Finally, something that is truly worth fighting over. Both of
them, Obama and Netanyahu, now hold each other by a sensitive place.
Now we will see whether Obama is a real man -- whether he really
intends to take this to the end. The question is what we will do if
we find, disastrously, that Obama is serious, that he will take it
to the end. In this case, this may be the end of us.... Netanyahu
is playing poker with Obama without a real hand. He is merely
playing with the semblance of one. It takes a great deal of courage
and composure to manage such a crisis. Until now, Netanyahu has not
conducted the crisis wisely. He identified it belatedly, responded
belatedly, folded and buried his head in the sand.
III. "Playing with Fire"

The independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized (7/20): QU.S.
President Barack Obama's opposition should not have surprised
Netanyahu [regarding construction in East Jerusalem].... Jerusalem
is one of the most sensitive issues in the Israeli-Arab conflict.
Particularly infuriating is the government's claim that Israel is
allowing the Arabs of East Jerusalem to settle in Jewish
neighborhoods.... Construction for Jews in East Jerusalem is
inflicting tremendous diplomatic damage on Israel. Netanyahu and
Jerusalem mayor Nir Barkat are playing with fire under the
transparent cover of "normal authorization for private
construction." Freezing construction at Shepherd Hotel is no less
essential than evacuating the outposts and freezing settlement
construction beyond the capital's municipal area.

IV. "Forget Jerusalem"

Political commentator Shalom Yerushalmi wrote in Maariv (7/20):
QLarge peripheral neighborhoods [of East Jerusalem] can be conceded
and handed over to Palestinian sovereignty, but since the entire
peace process is treading water, Jewish construction will yet reach
there too and render even this partitioning impossible. In the
situation that has arisen, Jews cannot be evacuated from the Arab
neighborhoods, and the same is true for Arabs who have bought houses
by various means in Jewish neighborhoods. All the right wing
parties -- Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, United Torah Judaism, the
National Union, and the Jewish Home -- are adamantly opposed to
partitioning Jerusalem. Yesterday, Kadima Knesset Member Yoel
Hasson told me: QJerusalem cannot be partitioned, even at the cost
of not having an agreement with the Palestinians.Q We are left with
parts of the Labor Party, Meretz, and the Knesset members from the
Arab parties, who support partitioning the city. The meaning is
clear: On the topic of Jerusalem, the U.S. is getting into a
confrontation with a majority of the public in Israel. Whoever
dreams of peace under these conditions can continue to dream.

¶V. QJust Because He Can

The nationalist, Orthodox Makor Rishon-Hatzofe editorialized (7/20):
QU.S. President Barack Obama is going on with the foreign policy he
initiated when he was sworn in. There is a global problem called
the Israeli settlements in Judea and Samaria [i.e. the West Bank].
Nothing else will directly determine the future of the world, for
good and for evil. It isnQt Barack Obama who is to blame alone. In
this situation, it is Israel, which has long lost its military
deterrence and its diplomacy; it is a doormat trodden upon by
friends and foes alike. In the Middle East -- Obama learned this
very quickly -- it pays to join the camp of the strong. Israel has
long been left out of that camp.

VI. QWho Is a Self-Hating Jew?

Senior op-ed writer Akiva Eldar commented in the independent,
left-leaning Ha'aretz (7/20): QAny child knows that everything is
the fault of other Jews: Rahm Emanuel and David Axelrod, two
American administration officials who are inciting President Barack
Obama against their own people [sic]. We want our Jews in the
administration to be blind to the settlements and deaf to the
complaints of the Arabs. Obama has internalized what his
predecessors refused to understand: the traditional supporters of
the Israeli right are growing old, or losing their relevance. They
are giving way to younger, liberal forces that identify with Obama's
values. In the QbestQ case, Netanyahu's incitement against the
Qself-hating JewsQ will do to them what his whispered comment in the
ear of Rabbi Kaduri Qthose leftists are not JewsQ did to Israelis a
decade ago -- it turned them against him.

VII. QIsraelQs New National Consensus

The Director of the Interdisciplinary Center's Global Research in
International Affairs Center, columnist Barry Rubin, wrote in the
conservative, independent Jerusalem Post (7/20): QIf Israel gets
what it requires -- and what successful peace requires --- [i.e.
strong security and diplomatic guarantees] it will accept a
two-state solution, [and] a Palestinian Arab Muslim state (the
Palestinian Authority's own definition) alongside a Jewish state,
living in peace. Part of the new thinking is to understand that
precise borders and East Jerusalem's status, while important, are
secondary to these basic issues. If those principles are resolved,
all else can follow. This new posture is not one of desperately
asserting Israel's yearning for peace but rather saying: We're
serious, we're ready, we're not suckers but we're not unreasonable
either. We want peace on real terms, not just more unilateral
concessions and higher risk without reward. Not experimenting with
our survival to please others. Not some illusory celebration of a
two-state solution for a week and then watching it produce another
century of violence.
VIII. QA Pause for Serious Self-Reflection

Jonathan S. Tobin, executive director of Commentary magazine, wrote
in The Jerusalem Post (7/20): QWhen U.S. President Barack Obama met
with 15 representatives of American Jewish organizations on July 13,
HaQaretz reported that he told them that he wanted to help Israel
achieve peace but that if they were to benefit from his
well-intentioned counsel, Israelis must Qengage in serious
self-reflection.Q The breathtaking condescension toward the Jewish
state that this remark betrays, as well as the implicit dismissal of
the last 16 years of Middle East history, says a lot about Obama and
the direction in which American foreign policy is heading. The fact
that Israel has already gone through several periods of serious
self-reflection and made costly sacrifices in terms not only of
territory but in blood has no significance for the President.
Jewish Democrats don't have to jump to the Republicans. If, as
[Professor Alan] Dershowitz avows, pro-Israel Democrats have
influence on the administration, then let them use it before things
get even worse. Had a Republican done and said the same things that
Obama has in the last six months who can doubt that he and other
Democrats would be demanding that Jewish Republicans repudiate their
party's leader? The question remains what will be the tipping point
for Jewish Democrats at which it will be impossible for them to go
on pretending that they did not elect the most hostile president to
Israel since the first George Bush? If the current trend continues
without a strong negative reaction from Jewish Democrats who raised
money for Obama and voted for him, then we are entitled to ask why
they are either silent or rationalizing a policy that they know is
wrong.

CUNNINGHAM

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS PRIORITY 2194
RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN PRIORITY 6160
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 6425
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY 5658
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 4238
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 6484
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 3292
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1495
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT PRIORITY 0184
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 7693
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH PRIORITY 2674
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 6687
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 8741
RUEHJI/AMCONSUL JEDDAH PRIORITY 1513
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM PRIORITY 2307
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SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA
HQ USAF FOR XOXX
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LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL
PARIS ALSO FOR POL
ROME FOR MFO

SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS

SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION

--------------------------------
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT:
--------------------------------

¶1. Iran

¶2. Mideast

-------------------------
Key stories in the media:
-------------------------

All media highlighted remarks made yesterday by Vice President Joe
Biden in Baghdad on ABC-TV's "This Week" program: "We cannot dictate
to another sovereign nation what they can and cannot do when they
make a determination, if they make a determination, that they're
existentially threatened." Some Israeli commentators interpreted
Biden's work as a non-endorsement of an Israeli action. Ha'aretz
reported: "Israel is urging the United States and other countries to
start preparing now for the possibility that Washington's proposed
dialogue with Iran will fail, by readying a 'Plan B' that includes
'paralyzing sanctions' and other measures against Tehran. The U.S.
has resisted this idea so far." The Jerusalem Post reported that
the Israel Air Force plans to participate in aerial exercises in the
U.S. and Europe in the coming months with the aim of training its
pilots for long-range flights. On July 5 major media quoted Mossad
Director Meir Dagan as saying in an interview with London's Sunday
Times that Saudi Arabia will allow Israeli warplanes to fly over its
territory in order to attack Iran's nuclear installations. Makor
Rishon-Hatzofe quoted sources in PM Netanyahu's office as saying
that the British newspaper's report is baseless. Israel Radio
reported that a senior Iranian official warned against an Israeli
attack on his country's nuclear installations.

Maariv reported that today's meting in London between DM Ehud Barak
and Special Envoy George Mitchell will be overshadowed by a new
argument: While Israel claims that 23 unauthorized settler outposts
remain, the American list based on UN statistics includes 100
outposts. Maariv reported that Barak will tell Mitchell that Israel
will continue to build what it has already started, but will not put
up new buildings. This refers to over 2,000 housing units in
various settlements, including Kiryat Sefer and Beitar Ilit.
Ha'aretz reported that, in his meetings with Mitchell, Barak
encouraged the envoy to engage in "shuttle diplomacy" between
Jerusalem and a number of Arab capitals to draft a regional peace
plan. On July 5, The Jerusalem Post reported that President Obama
urged Morocco to lead an Arab-Israeli rapprochement.

Leading media reported that today in Geneva, Gilad Shalit's father
Noam will testify before the Human Rights Council-appointed
fact-finding mission to investigate international human rights and
humanitarian law violations related to the recent conflict in the
Gaza Strip, which is headed by Judge Richard Goldstone. Maariv
quoted Israeli sources as saying that the session will constitute a
"show trial" on Israel's actions during Operation Cast Lead. Yediot
quoted Noam Shalit as saying that his son's abduction constitutes a
war crime. Israel Radio quoted him as saying that it is a violation
of international treaties.

Ha'aretz reported that PM Benjamin Netanyahu told a meeting of Likud
Party ministers yesterday that no deal about settlement construction
had been reached with Washington yet, "and all the reports saying we
have agreed to freeze construction in the settlements are the sole
responsibility of those who publish them." Leading media quoted
Netanyahu as saying at a separate meeting of the full cabinet that
his government had "brought about a national consensus on the idea
of two states for two peoples." On July 3, Yediot bannered a
supposed U.S. plan that would allow Israeli airliners to fly over
Arab countries in exchange for a settlement freeze.

On July 5, Ha'aretz reported that Saudi Arabia and the U.S. are
pressing Syria to demarcate its border with Lebanon, in order to
allow for the beginning of an Israeli withdrawal from the disputed
Sheba Farms, straddling the border between Lebanon and the Golan.

Former PM Ariel Sharon's top diplomatic advisor Dov Weisglass was
quoted as saying in an interview with The Jerusalem Post (July 3)
that Netanyahu must endorse the Roadmap or risk the U.S. imposing
something worse.

The Jerusalem Post cited the Construction and Housing Web site as
saying that first-time home buyers can receive a bigger mortgage if
they move to settlements such as Itamar and Elon Moreh as opposed to
the city of Ashkelon.

The Jerusalem Post quoted defense officials as saying on July 6 that
DM Ehud Barak has approved the transfer of 1,000 automatic weapons
to the PA. Following ballistic tests, the IDF will be able to know
if one of the weapons is used in a terrorist attack.
Ha'aretz quoted the Israeli Interior Ministry as saying that Mairead
Corrigan Maguire, the 1976 Nobel Peace Prize winner, and Cynthia
McKinney, a former U.S. congresswoman, are among eight people to be
released today and expelled after having sailed on a protest ship
heading to Gaza from Cyprus.

Ha'aretz reported that IAF fighter jets and transport planes to "get
a workout" at U.S. bases. The Jerusalem Post reported that, under
pressure from the Pentagon, Israel Aerospace Industries has been
forced out of a joint partnership with a Swedish aerospace company
to compete in a multi-billion dollar tender to sell new multi-role
fighter jets to the Indian Air Force.

Maariv reported that hundreds of Hamas activists are defecting to
the ranks of Al Qaida-affiliated organizations.

Maariv reported that the Israel Land Fund, directed by Jewish
millionaire Aryeh King, is seeking tenants for a luxury house in the
East Jerusalem neighborhood of Beit Hanina, which belongs to King.
The newspaper says that there is a clear goal behind the initiative
-- to settle Jews in the Arab neighborhood. On July 5, Maariv
reported that on Thursday the Jerusalem Municipality approved plans
to build 20 housing units in the Shepherd's Hotel, on the slopes of
Mount Scopus, in the heart of an Arab neighborhood. As Maariv
reported some six months ago, this project was promoted by Jerusalem
Mayor Nir Barkat. Maariv's report produced intense pressure on
Barkat to suspend the plans, mainly from the direction of Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton.

Yediot reported that Doron Eilat, a 17-year-old Israeli from Rishon
Lezion, met President Obama in the White House during a convention
of the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation.

---------
¶1. Iran:
---------

Block Quotes:
-------------

¶I. "Back on the Agenda"

Diplomatic correspondent Aluf Benn wrote on page one of the
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz (7/6): "Biden's words should not
be understood as American permission for Israel to bomb Iran's
nuclear facilities. Rather, they were a veiled warning to Iran that
if it does not embark on a serious dialogue with President Barack
Obama's administration, it is liable to be attacked. An Israeli
government source said Biden's statement was not coordinated with
Israel. But it clearly serves Netanyahu, who sees halting Iran's
nuclear program as a historic mission.... Israeli officials argue
that Iran's apparently fraudulent election and its brutal
suppression of the subsequent demonstrations reveal the
pointlessness of talking with Tehran and the need for stiffer
sanctions. The statements of the last few days are meant to bolster
this message with hints of possible military action."

II. "No One Is a Sucker"

In the mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot, senior columnist
Nahum Barnea imagined a speech by President Obama(7/3): "'The United
States will block the Iranian nuclear program. If we do not succeed
in thwarting the project by means of sanctions, we will thwart it by
force. A nuclear Iran poses a clear and present danger not only to
the countries of the region but also to the security of the United
States. But they too will have to do their share.... Israel will
commit itself to immediately launch negotiations with the
Palestinian Authority, with the basis for discussion being the
establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state within the 1967
borders.... I know that this requires tough decisions for all
parties, including us, the Americans.... But leaders are measured by
tough decisions'.... How would Netanyahu respond to such a proposal?
I think I know. He would say, let's see: 'Show me the money,' he
would say to the U.S. envoys. 'Show me what you have received from
the Arabs in the area of normalization, show me what you have
received from Abu Mazen, show me what guarantees I will receive from
America, and you will be surprised to find how generous, bold and
creative I can be. They will meet with similar reactions in Saudi
Arabia....' [By the way,] Netanyahu does not know yet what the Obama
administration really wants."

------------
¶2. Mideast:
------------

Block Quotes:
-------------

¶I. "Netanyahu's Consensuses"
Ha'aretz editorialized (7/6): "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,
who until last month opposed the solution of two states for two
peoples, has suddenly adopted this premise as his policy....
Netanyahu's repeated statements were designed to ease the
Mitchell-Barak talks, especially given the dispute over whether to
freeze construction in the settlements.... Netanyahu must aspire to
achieve not only national consensus within Israel, but also
international consensus between two nations - Israelis and
Palestinians. To this end, he must stop setting conditions and
return without delay to negotiations on a final-status agreement
with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, either directly or with
the mediation of Obama and his envoys."

II. "Conditions to Avoid a Bantustan"

Shlomo Avineri, Hebrew University Professor of Political Science and
former director-general of the Foreign Ministry, wrote in Ha'aretz
(7/6): "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to be praised for
saying, albeit unenthusiastically, that Israel would agree to the
establishment of a 'demilitarized' Palestinian state. His
statements seem reasonable until one looks at the details: a
demilitarized state with no army, no right to sign accords with
other countries and no control over border crossings and airspace.
As Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, whose country is currently
chairing the European Union, rightly asked, with all these
limitations, what's left of Palestinian sovereignty? Indeed, it's
too similar to Bantustan. It should come as no surprise that the
Palestinians rejected Netanyahu's position outright.... Nowhere in
the world is a country entirely demilitarized with no control over
its borders.... [Yet,] it is impossible to ignore that even if
Netanyahu's proposal is completely bizarre, it reflects Israel's
real security problem.... Arrangements for demilitarization under
these circumstances [involving Egyptian and Jordanian custodianships
of the Palestinians for a transitional period, while a peace treaty
is being forged], even extending to the crossings, could be easier.
This is not a return to the 'Jordanian option.' The Palestinians
are embroiled in a de facto civil war, which requires a search for
creative, unusual ways to reach the desired solution of two states
for two peoples. Sometimes the long road is the short one,
especially since the short road has so far been an utter failure."

III. "The Secret of Failure"

Minister without Portfolio and Likud Knesset Member Ze'ev Benjamin
(Benny) Begin wrote in the mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot
Aharonot; "What is accepted as the 'two-state solution,' as a
mechanism of making a permanent peace, is not in reality a solution.
As far as the Moderate Palestinian Liberation Organization is
concerned, this is still a 'two-stage solution:' in the first stage
the establishment of an Arab state alongside Israel, and in the
second stage, after the refugees enter deep into Israel, the
establishment of one Arab state from the Jordan River to the
Mediterranean Sea. In an effort to verify this conjecture
conclusively or in an attempt to refute it, the Israeli governments
have already conducted all possible political experiments, and the
excuses have now run out. In other words, there will be no end to
the one hundred year conflict so long as the Arab position does not
fundamentally change."

CUNNINGHAM

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM
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SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA
HQ USAF FOR XOXX
DA WASHDC FOR SASA
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR PA
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL FOR POLAD/USIA ADVISOR
COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD
COMSIXTHFLT FOR 019

JERUSALEM ALSO ICD
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL
PARIS ALSO FOR POL
ROME FOR MFO

SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS

SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION

--------------------------------
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT:
--------------------------------

¶1. Mideast

¶2. Pope Benedict XVI in Israel

-------------------------
Key stories in the media:
-------------------------

HaQaretz reported that PM Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to promise
during his meeting with President Obama at the White House on Monday
that Israel will remove all restrictions to the movement of
foodstuffs into the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, four senior EU officials
sent a letter to FM Avigdor Lieberman and DM Ehud Barak, calling on
them to immediately and permanently open the crossings into the Gaza
Strip for humanitarian aid.

Noting the chaotic passage process involving the proposed 2009-2010
budget, the media reported that the government approved it this
morning, 26-4 (the Shas ministers), with a 6.5% across-the-board.
The media reported that the defense and finance ministries, as well
as IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi and the Union of Local
Authorities, sharply criticized the proposal.

Major media quoted IDF Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin as
saying yesterday before the KnessetQs Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee that Tehran is very close to obtaining the technology
necessary to build nuclear weapons, but that the chances are very
low that IsraelQs enemies Swill start a major war on its borders.
Yadlin: Slim chance of war. HaQaretz quoted Yadlin as saying that
Egyptian efforts have failed to curb arms smuggling to Gaza.

Media reported that two mortar shells were fired last night at the
western Negev. The Jerusalem Post reported that, fearing an
increase in infiltration attempts by terrorists along the border
with Egypt, the IDFQs Southern Command recently began constructing a
barrier along a 40-km stretch of the border near Gaza -- between the
Kerem Shalom Crossing, at the southwest corner of the Gaza Strip,
and the Israeli border town of Nitzana to the south.

All media cited the results of an IDF probe that the Canadian-born
IDF soldier killed during a raid in the West Bank town of Bir Zeit
was killed by a bullet fired by this companyQs deputy commander.

HaQaretz reported that police detained its correspondent Amira Hass
as she left Gaza, where she had been living and reporting for the
past few months. Hass was arrested and taken in for questioning
immediately after crossing the border, for violating a law
forbidding residence in an enemy state.

HaQaretz quoted visiting Pope Benedict XVI as saying yesterday that
he is committed to true, durable reconciliation between Jews and
Christians. Media reported that Israeli criticism of his Yad Vashem
speech surprised the Vatican. This morning leading media reported
that the Pope called for a sovereign Palestinian homeland after
arriving in Bethlehem at the start of a one-day visit to the West
Bank.

Channel 10-TV reported that restrictions on journalists and official
attempts to influence coverage during the Gaza conflict led to
IsraelQs Partly Free status on the U.S.-based NGO Freedom HouseQs
annual Freedom of the Press Index. HaQaretz reported that Israel
ranks eighth on the list of 52 so-called "electronic police states,"
according to a report prepared by the U.S.-based company
Cryptohippie, which develops data security products. The list of
"electronic police states" is led by China, followed by North Korea,
Belarus, Russia, and then England, Wales, the U.S., and Singapore.
The report defines an electronic police state as a country that uses
technology to record, organize, search, and distribute evidence
against its citizens.

Leading media reported that the Health Ministry announced yesterday
that passengers arriving in Israel from the U.S. and Canada who have
a fever will undergo a medical examination upon arrival to determine
whether they have swine flu. Until now, only passengers arriving
directly from Mexico were subject to the ministry directive.

The Jerusalem Post reported that last week Leslie Cunningham, the
wife of the U.S. Ambassador, hosted the Lions of Judah, an
organization that empowers Ethiopian immigrant women through
projects that help them to realize their potential. Mrs. Cunningham
was quoted as saying: QI love the fact that the Lions of Judah is an
organization of women empowering women.

------------
¶1. Mideast:
------------
E

Summary:
--------

In a QletterQ to President Obama, Eldad Yaniv, a former adviser to
Defense Minister Ehud Barak, wrote in the independent, left-leaning
Ha'aretz: QYou can get into a fistfight with Israel and leave it
bleeding, but you can't force peace down its throat. If you want
Netanyahu to yield, you have to find the key to the hearts of the
Israeli public.

Diplomatic correspondent Aluf Benn wrote in HaQaretz: Q[Netanyahu]
is going to Washington with the support of the public and the
politicians. The trust he will gain in the future will depend on
the results of his meeting with Obama.

Europe correspondent Nadav Eyal wrote in the popular, pluralist
Maariv: QNetanyahu, ostensibly the master of PR, is failing to pick
up the frequency on which the Western leadership is currently
broadcasting.

Block Quotes:
-------------

¶I. "Letter to Obama"

In a QletterQ to President Obama, Eldad Yaniv, a former adviser to
Defense Minister Ehud Barak, wrote in the independent, left-leaning
Ha'aretz (5/13): QThen-prime minister Yitzhak Shamir thwarted
[George H.W.] Bush and Baker's plans, and Netanyahu could do the
same. You can get into a fistfight with Israel and leave it
bleeding, but you can't force peace down its throat. If you want
Netanyahu to yield, you have to find the key to the hearts of the
Israeli public. Remember when during your last visit to Israel,
Ehud Barak and Tzipi Livni took you on a helicopter tour to show you
how narrow the country is? Do you still remember the Yad Vashem
Holocaust memorial and Qassam-stricken Sderot? They are at the
heart of our narrative, just as much as the nuclear reactor in
Dimona is. That's the essence of the Israeli paradox. The same
Israelis who enabled Netanyahu's rise in the last elections also
want peace and security. For that reason, they agree with you that
Jerusalem needs to be divided, and a Palestinian state must be
created. They, just like you, dream of peace. But these Israelis
feel you are shaking the earth under their feet. Suddenly you've
got your hooks on our nuclear reactor, making overtures to Hamas,
and bowing to the Saudi King. These Israelis think you might take
us for suckers.... Show Netanyahu and us a plan whereby the Arabs
get their state, the Palestinians forgo the right of return to
Israel, and the land and Jerusalem is divided in two. But get us
guarantees of security and recognition from 57 Muslim countries....
Offer us such a deal, and you we will earn our admiration. Israel
will follow you with the conviction of [elite IDF] Sayeret Matkal
commandos who followed [Ehud] Barak in the dark of the night, when
he was their commander.

II. "Is It Him or Is It Us?"

Diplomatic correspondent Aluf Benn wrote in HaQaretz (5/13): Q[Prime
Minister NetanyahuQs] maintenance of the cease-fire with Hamas in
the Gaza Strip, and the Yesha Council of Jewish Settlements in the
TerritoriesQ leaders' criticism of him for Qcontinuing the freeze on
settlement activityQ only serve to bolster the still unproven belief
that he has become more moderate.... But until proven otherwise,
this seemingly centrist positioning is an illusion. Netanyahu's
views are much closer to those of Lieberman than those of Barak, and
the extreme right has decisive weight in the coalition -- even if
one assumes that Lieberman is a pragmatist who is prepared to
compromise, since that still leaves Shas, Habayit Hayehudi [the
Jewish home,] and most of the Likud Knesset members.... Nonetheless,
Netanyahu looks like he is in control and enjoying his comeback,
while keeping any boorish behavior in check. He is going to
Washington with the support of the public and the politicians. The
trust he will gain in the future will depend on the results of his
meeting with Obama.

III. QNon-Starter

Europe correspondent Nadav Eyal wrote in the popular, pluralist
Maariv (5/13): QEvery international leader who has recently spoken
on the Middle East issue has emphasized the establishment of a
Palestinian state. It is important to understand that this is a
joint effort: Merkel, Brown, Obama, Sarkozy, they are all
coordinated and repeating the same words intentionally. The target:
Netanyahu. The Israeli message is not getting through because
Netanyahu, ostensibly the master of PR, is failing to pick up the
frequency on which the Western leadership is currently broadcasting.
Talk of Qself-governmentQ sounds like colonialism for beginners,
like a proposal to establish a protectorate modeled after the
Bantustans. Rhetoric focused on Qimproving the Palestinians' living
conditions,Q which completely ignores their national demands, is
perceived as paternalistic arrogance stemming from a sense of
superiority. Simply put, Netanyahu gives the impression that he
thinks the Palestinians can be bribed -- that they have no existence
as a people, and no right to self-determination. They are natives
who need protective development, under the auspices of an Israeli
empire, which will toss them a few glass beads. In substantive
terms, this is an outmoded approach. The assumption that improving
the Palestinians' economic and social situation will lead them to
abandon ideas of national self-determination is fundamentally
flawed. On the contrary, the history of the 20th century shows that
improving the economic situation is often a critical catalyst for a
national liberation struggle. Economic stability that creates a
strong middle class and a sector of educated young people serves as
an effective recipe for a revolution. Netanyahu surely knows all
these historical lessons; after all, he is the son of an eminent
historian.

IV. QSmelling Weakness

Senior columnist Nahum Barnea wrote on page one of the
mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot (5/12): QThe first 50
days of NetanyahuQs government passed without exciting external
events -- neither Qassam rockets nor terror attacks nor a dramatic
turnabout in the economic situation. All the governmentQs disasters
came from within.... The man who formed the government is also the
man who decides its budget. Many of our prime ministers turned
their own survival into the main thing, from a certain point. This
is happening to Netanyahu too soon: Only 50 days in power, and not
much is left: No plan, no vision and no ambition, save the ambition
to survive. The man who turned Qif they give, theyQll receiveQ into
his political motto very soon reached the point where he is giving
and giving, so long as power is not taken from him. It is sad.
Nikita Khrushchev, who ruled the Soviet Union 50 years ago, said
about President Kennedy after their meeting in Vienna in 1961 that
Kennedy was Qtoo intelligent and too weak.Q He was wrong about
Kennedy, but until he realized his error, the Soviet Union and the
United States were on the brink of world war. Netanyahu should pull
himself together. It is not only his 30 ministers who are
scrutinizing him. So are friends and enemies, from Washington to
Tehran.

--------------------------------
¶2. Pope Benedict XVI in Israel:
--------------------------------
Summary:
--------

The independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized: QThe Pope's
visit shows that there is no real dialogue between Israel and the
Vatican, and that it is difficult to erase centuries-old wounds.

Eytan Haber, veteran op-ed writer and assistant to the late prime
minister Yitzhak Rabin, opined in the mass-circulation, pluralist
Yediot Aharonot: QNot, Heaven forbid, that the Pope's unfortunate
speech should not have been criticized -- but is that all there is?
What about his other statements, the respect he has shown us?

Block Quotes:
-------------

¶I. "A Missed Opportunity"

The independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized (5/13): QOne
word unsaid can sometimes be more damaging than thousands of words
uttered. This is what happened two days ago during Pope Benedict
XVI's speech at Yad Vashem. The thorough preparations for his visit
to Israel ... evaporated as if they did not exist thanks to a speech
that was missing one word -- QsorryQ.... Benedict is not as attuned
an internationalist, capable of rallying the masses, as his
immediate predecessor, John Paul II, was. His organizers should
have made more of an effort in understanding the audience which the
pontiff addressed. His important statements condemning
anti-Semitism and Holocaust denial lost their potency because of his
lukewarm remarks at Yad Vashem. The Pope's visit shows that there
is no real dialogue between Israel and the Vatican, and that it is
difficult to erase centuries-old wounds. It is clear that
logistical preparations for such a visit are not sufficient, and
that it is vital to conduct diplomatic dialogue over the content of
the public aspects of the visit, so as to prevent mishaps and ensure
a successful trip. On his trip to Africa, Benedict set off a storm
by what he said. In Jerusalem he set off a wave of disappointment
by what he did not.

II. "We've Gone Too Far"

Eytan Haber, veteran op-ed writer and assistant to the late prime
minister Yitzhak Rabin, opined in the mass-circulation, pluralist
Yediot Aharonot (5/13): QWe do not have many friends in the world,
and the Vatican has never had its picture taken next to the image of

Benjamin Zeev [Theodor] Herzl. It took decades of hostility until
the Vatican, following the Oslo Accords, agreed to establish
diplomatic ties with us. The Vatican wields influence over more
than one billion people in the world, whose opinion of us is
important to us. Not, Heaven forbid, that the Pope's unfortunate
speech should not have been criticized -- but is that all there is?
What about his other statements, the respect he has shown us? For
quite some time, it appears that we have lost a sense of proportion
in almost every area of our lives. Perhaps we can return to our
senses? A bit, just a bit. Full disclosure: This writer was
involved to a certain degree in the preparations for the Pope's
visit to Israel.

CUNNINGHAM

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DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA
NSC FOR PASCUAL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2029
TAGS: PREL KISL PTER KIRF SOCI SCUL PGOV EG
SUBJECT: SALAFISM ON THE RISE IN EGYPT

CAIRO 00000202 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: DCM Matthew H. Tueller, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

¶1. (C) Summary: Increasing religious conservatism, a trend in
Egypt over the past two decades, is taking on a new
dimension; over the past several years, Egypt has witnessed a
striking increase in Salafism, a fundamentalist Sunni
movement that seeks to emulate the Islam practiced during the
time of the Prophet Mohammed, and whose adherents disavow
"modern" activities such as politics. Although there are no
reliable statistics available to measure this shift, Salafis
are increasingly visible among Egypt's lower and middle
classes, in universities and on city streets. Some of our
contacts characterize their rising appeal as a "major
societal shift," and assert that Salafi preachers have more
influence with Egyptians than the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), a
group which Salafists criticize due to its engagement in
politics. While there are several Salafi groups in Egypt,
there appears to be no centralized leadership or
infrastructure, and the various organizations seem focused on
activities promoting their philosophical approach to Islam.
The 10-12 Salafi-themed satellite TV channels broadcasting
from Egypt have been key in its spread, as has alleged Saudi
funding. Other factors cited in the Salafi upsurge include
widespread popular frustration with governmental religious
institutions, and a largely passive GOE approach towards
burgeoning Salafi ideology. Increasingly, Egyptian political
elites are uneasy about the rising popular resonance of
Salafis, concerned that, although the Egyptian groups do not
currently advocate violence, their extreme interpretation of
Islam creates an environment where susceptibility to
radicalism and jihadi ideas is heightened. As one contact
opined, citing the experiences of Al Qaeda leader Ayman al
Zawahiri and September 11 hijacker Mohamed Atta, both of whom
attended Salafi mosques in Cairo, Salafism "is a bridge to
extremism." End summary.

-------------------------------
SALAFIS, SALAFIS EVERYWHERE ...
-------------------------------

¶2. (C) Strolling through Cairo and Alexandria's lower and
middle-class neighborhoods, one cannot help but notice the
proliferation of niqabs (full facial veils, exposing only the
eyes) on women, and the mid-calf galabiyah robe and untrimmed
beards favored by male Salafis, who believe such an
appearance emulates the dress of the Prophet Mohammed and his
wives. Only ten years ago, the niqab was virtually absent
from Cairo's streets; today, an Egyptian woman wearing a
headscarf riding on Cairo's metro will often be harassed by
her peers for not sporting a niqab, and an unveiled woman
will be the target of either derision, or earnest
proselytizing as to why she must take on the facial cover.
Egypt's famed annual Book Fair, once a hotbed of liberal
thought, has taken a distinct conservative turn in recent
years, with Salafi literature competing with the other books
available. Ask a Cairo taxi driver or street vendor about
Salafi preachers Mohamed Yaqoub or Mohamed Hassan, and you
will be treated to a paean about the men, and how superior
they are to "corrupt" and "slavish government employees" at
Al Azhar, the ten-century old Sunni religious institution
generally revered by most Egyptians.

¶3. (C) There is consensus among a wide array of our contacts
- politicians, academics, analysts, and "ordinary" Egyptians
- that Salafism is on the rise, with some characterizing it
as "a wave sweeping the country" and "nothing short of a
major societal shift." While there are no formal statistics
available to support this contention, anecdotally, it does
seem that Salafis are experiencing an upsurge. Salafis are
not a majority among Cairo's population, but do constitute a
noticeable minority. Some contacts have opined that leading
Salafi preachers now have more sway with Egyptians than the
influential Muslim Brotherhood (MB). A former MB member and
current leader of the centrist Islamist "Wasat" party,
lamented to us the conservative trend, noting that that
during a recent trip to his rural home-town of Minya, several
nieces who six months before had been moderately religious,
had donned the niqab, and were separating themselves from all
male contact. College professors in Cairo and Ismailiya have
complained to us that many of their female students will no
longer shake their hands; the academics wring their own hands
over what they see as "a Salafi wave of intolerance that is
chipping away at our traditional Egyptian identity." A
recent op-ed in the independent newspaper "Al Masry Al Yom"
discussed the "transformation" of western Cairo; the article
was titled "Monaqabat Street" (the street of the
niqab-wearing women), and highlighted the increased number of
niqab-clad women, men in short galabeyas, and numerous Salafi
books for sale in the area. The author wrote, "(The
neighborhood) has many Islamic bookstores, but readers there

CAIRO 00000202 002 OF 004


do not buy the writings of Al Azhar sheikhs ... They
criticize revered Muslim scholars, and instead prefer
preachers like Mahmoud Al Masry, Mohamed Hussein Yaqoub, and
Mohamed Hassan, all stars on the satellite channels these
days. (Moderate) Muslim preacher Amr Khaled has no place
here, perhaps because of his modern appearance. In addition,
his books, people there say, are just stories, not suitable
for those who want to read religious tomes."

-----------------------------
WHY THE INCREASE IN SALAFISM?
-----------------------------

¶4. (C) In addition to the regularly cited factors behind an
overall increased piety among Egyptians - poverty, and the
conservative influences that the millions of Egyptians
working in the Gulf bring back to Egypt with them - most
observers also point to "the total lack of credibility of the
leaders of the Al Azhar religious establishment" as creating
a vacuum of religious leadership that Salafi preachers are
filling. We heard repeatedly that "Al Azhar has no
legitimacy" and "it is viewed as just doing the government's
bidding, issuing pro-regime fatwas whenever Hosni Mubarak
wants it." While the institution is respected for its
illustrious history, the Al Azhar leadership now has little
street credibility, and is tarred as being a government
agent. Thus many Egyptians, disenchanted with the regime,
shy away from Al Azhar, and seek religious guidance elsewhere.

¶5. (C) There are 10-12 Salafi-themed TV channels broadcasting
from Egypt on Nilesat, most of which started-up since 2003.
The most popular are Al Nas ("The People"), Al Rahma ("The
Mercy"), and Al Fajr ("The Dawn"). All feature religious
programming, focused on the sermonizing of prominent Salafi
preachers, and some programs on social issues. The role of
these channels in furthering Salafi appeal in Egypt is
substantial. One expert in Islamist movements at Egypt's Al
Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies describes
Egypt's experience as "satellite Salafism": "These channels
are reaching people in ways that mosques and local preachers
never could, and furthering Salafi thought, as well as the
popularity of particular shaykhs."

¶6. (C) Analysts also point to Salafist charity work as
another key factor in their growth. Taking a page out of the
MB's playbook, Salafis have focused on providing social
services, such as funding medical treatment or educational
assistance for lower-income Egyptians. The two largest
Salafi organizations in Egypt - Gamey'ah Shar'iah and Ansar
al Sunna - are registered NGO's with the Ministry of Social
Solidarity. According to their own descriptions, they offer
health-care services and literacy classes, in addition to
preaching and Quran recitation classes. Conventional wisdom
is that funding for both groups comes from Saudi Arabia, and
from wealthy Egyptians living in the Gulf. The Minister of
Islamic Endowments ("Awqaf") Hamdy Zakzouk, was recently
quoted in the press as stating that both organizations, as
well as Al Sunna Al Mohammedeya, another Egypt-based Salafi
NGO, "receive significant funding from Saudi Arabia."

¶7. (C) Perhaps one of the most potent factors in facilitating
the spread of Salafism has been the GOE's largely passive
approach to it. As one contact commented, "the government is
consumed with the political threat posed by the MB. In
contrast, while not encouraging non-violent Salafi groups, it
is not actively opposing them." He cited the oppressive
limitations imposed on the MB and opposition political
parties, as contrasted with the relatively free operating
environment that Salafists enjoy. A frustrated leader of the
opposition Tagammu party complained that "Salafis are allowed
to broadcast programming on over ten channels in Egypt, but I
and my opposition colleagues are not allowed to run a TV
station, or produce political party programming!" Some
oppositionists speculate that the GOE is happy to allow the
unfettered spread of Salafi ideology, viewing it as drawing
popular support away from the MB. Two analysts on Islamist
movements caution that the regime "is playing a very
dangerous and foolhardy game": by allowing numerous Salafi TV
channels to broadcast, and not restraining the activities of
Salafi groups, they fear the GOE is making the same mistake
Sadat did in the 1970's when he encouraged the activities of
Islamist groups as a counter-balance to the then-powerful
leftist opposition, and ended up opening a Pandora's box of
violent Islamism that resulted in his assassination.

¶8. (C) Another expert on political Islam lamented the GOE's
"huge mistake" in fighting the MB, "which espouses moderate
Islam, political participation, and gradual political change
through democratic means," rather than challenging Salafis,
"who view democracy as an infidel idea, do not believe in

CAIRO 00000202 003 OF 004


gradual change or political participation, but rather a
wholesale shift in political systems and religious
attitudes." He posited that the Salafi creed of "obedience
to the ruler" resonates more with the GOE than the MB's
message of political change. Some contacts fretted that the
GOE's decreasing tolerance for the MB, an organization which
they view as serving as a "fairly responsible, non-violent,
and organized" release valve for some of the societal and
political pressures in Egypt, will back-fire, driving
frustrated MB members towards the less centralized, and
therefore less controllable, and more extreme Salafis, and
also possibly accelerating the rise of a Salafi-wing of the
MB.

------------------
SALAFIS VS. THE MB
------------------

¶9. (C) The MB-Salafi dynamic is far from warm, fueled by the
inherent tension between the two movements' worldviews, with
the MB embracing political participation and a less extreme
form of Islam, and the Salafists adhering to a more
fundamentalist belief system and rejecting politics. MB
leaders and prominent Salafis routinely denounce each other
in the press for being agents of the security services.
According to our contacts who regularly meet with the MB, the
"moderate" leadership of the organization is aggressively
anti-Salafi, and concerned by "Salafi creep" in Egyptian
society. More conservative MB leaders are allegedly more
agnostic towards the Salafists, asserting that there is no
conflict between the two groups, and "applauding all Muslims
practicing their faiths." Increasing the discomfort of some
MB leaders is the reported trend, most often in rural areas,
of younger MB members becoming increasingly Salafi-oriented.

¶10. (C) The different approaches of the two movements to the
election of President Obama are a useful comparison of their
two worldviews. MB Supreme Guide Mehdi Akef publicly lauded
the election of the President, saying that "Obama has
awakened the dreams and resurrected the hopes of not just the
American people, but in the peoples of the entire world."
Hassan Abu Al Ashbal, a popular Salafi preacher on the "Al
Nas" channel, did not comment on the elections, but rather
focused on calling on President Obama to convert to Islam:
"If you refuse to return to your (Islamic) origins ... and to
withdraw your huge armies and military bases from the lands
of the Muslims ... Know, Obama, that in the lands of Islam,
there are people who seek death, and are eager for it, even
more than you and your people are eager for life."

-----------------------------------
GOVERNMENT WAKING UP TO SALAFI WAVE
-----------------------------------

¶11. (C) After years of largely looking the other way, parts
of the GOE apparatus are slowly moving to address the Salafi
wave. In December 2008, the Ministry of Islamic Endowments
("Awqaf") began distributing to mosque employees nationwide a
book titled, "Our Forefathers and Salafism," which Minister
Hamdi Zaqzouq said aims to correct "erroneous concepts"
promulgated by Salafis, and argues that the real teachings of
the Prophet Muhamed were to be "dynamic" and to "incorporate
modern values." Also in December, the Awqaf ministry
announced it is allocating 10 million LE (approximately 1.8
million USD) to fight the spread of the niqab in Egypt. The
project entails training 45,000 imams and organizing 900
workshops nationwide to "educate Egyptians that the niqab is
just a custom that is not mandated by Islam." The ministry is
also distributing to mosques a book authored by Zaqzouq,
titled, "The Niqab is a Custom, Not a Religious Requirement."
The Ministry of Health, which in 2007 published a statistic
estimating that nearly 10,000 of Egypt's 90,000 nurses wear a
niqab, mandated in October 2008 that nurses cannot wear the
facial covering while at work. Implementation of the edict
has been spotty thus far. Throughout 2008, the security
services allegedly approached several of the Salafi satellite
channels, encouraging them to diversify their programming
from just hard-core religious sermons. The popular "Al Hikma"
(The Wisdom) channel was shut-down in October 2008, its
transmission suspended by the security services; "Al Nas" has
started airing programs on "social issues," in response to
pressure from State Security. Two planned new Salafi
satellite channels were also not given a broadcasting permit
in early 2008, and so never got on the air.

¶12. (C) While the GOE is undertaking belated efforts to
confront rising Salafist theology, the governmental religious
establishment itself appears somewhat conflicted on the
issue, in part because there is not much daylight between
some conservative preachers and Salafis. For instance, the

CAIRO 00000202 004.2 OF 004


director of the Cairo directorate of the Awqaf Ministry was
quoted in a January newspaper interview as saying that "Al
Rahma" and "Al Nas" are "moderate Islamic channels," and that
Salafi preacher Mohamed Hassan is "moderate and
well-educated." (Note: During the recent Gaza crisis, Hassan
delivered a sermon on the "Al Rahma" channel stating that,
"The Jews are the real terrorists and extremists. They are
blood suckers, and shedders of blood. Review the history of
the Jews from beginning to end, from the very first moment to
the last moment, which is now. They specialize in the
shedding of blood, in crime, and in killing - even the
killing of prophets." End note.) Some Salafis have been
appointed to serve in governmental religious institutions;
one example is Shaykh Youssef Al Badry of the influential
Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs. Other members of such
institutions do not self-identify as Salafis, but reportedly
agree with many Salafi ideas. One expert in the anthropology
of Salafi movements told us that Salafis are "infiltrating"
religious institutions, and that, "they are very smug about
it. viewing it as part of a long-term plan to gain the
dominant position in such organizations."

----------------------------------
IMPLICATIONS OF INCREASED SALAFISM
----------------------------------

¶13. (C) Egyptian political elites are uneasy about the rising
resonance of Salafis with the population. Several analysts we
spoke with are concerned that, although current Egyptian
Salafi groups do not advocate violence, their extreme
interpretation of Islam creates an environment where
susceptibility to radicalism and extremist ideas is
heightened. As one contact opined, citing the experiences of
Al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri and September 11 hijacker
Mohamed Atta, both of whom attended Salafi mosques in Cairo,
Salafism "is a bridge to extremism." Others we spoke with,
particularly politicians, worried that eventual Salafi
political involvement is "near inevitable." While Salafi
groups in Egypt forswear politics, the line does seem to be
getting blurred. During the recent Gaza crisis, Salafi
clerics delivered some of Egypt's most fiery sermons and
calls for violent action against Israel; a Salafi candidate
is running in the upcoming Bar Syndicate elections; and a
debate is rumored to be ongoing in Salafi circles about the
possibility of further political engagement. The popularity
of some Salafi shaykhs also implies that they have potential
influence over significant numbers of voters during
elections. One contact we spoke with observed that, while
taking pains to observe "red-lines" in public commentary, and
never criticizing the Egyptian government, in private, many
Salafists refer to the Mubarak regime as "kafir"
(unbelievers). (Comment: "Takfiris," those who declare
current Muslim leaders as un-Islamic, provide the doctrinal
foundation for Al Qaeda and the most extreme and dangerous of
Islamic splinter groups. End comment).

¶14. (C) All we spoke with worried that burgeoning Salafism
will make Egypt less tolerant and more sectarian. They fear
an increase in anti-Christian sentiments, anti-Shi'a
rhetoric, and a chilling effect on Egypt's cultural scene. A
senior member of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP)
mused to us that the upsurge in Salafism, and in overall
religiosity among Egyptians, will "necessarily have a
political impact, on all political parties, including the
NDP. How can we champion liberal values in an environment
like this, when we know it will cost us popular support?"

SCOBEY

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UNCLAS BEIJING 004324

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/CM, EAP/PA, EAP/PD, C
HQ PACOM FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR (J007)
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR CH

SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. DIPLOMACY, TAIWAN, CHINA'S RISE

--------------------
Editorial Quotes
--------------------

¶1. U.S. DIPLOMACY

"Obama is not focused on China"

The official Communist Party international news publication Global
Times (Huanqiu Shibao)(11/25): "An American expert has said that in
the U.S., China studies programs are far less emphasized than
studies concerning Europe, Russia, and the Middle East. This
reflects China's position in the strategic blueprints of the U.S. It
also reflects the different feelings of the two countries. Each
country has different opinions, stances, and angles concerning
important topics. For example, when the Chinese media is concerned
about Obama's policy on China, public opinions in the U.S. are
concerned with who will be the next secretary of the treasury.
What's more, in the U.S. diplomatic system there is no specific
China policy team. China is just a part of Eastern Asian or
Asia-Pacific affairs. It is not possible, and not necessary, to make
China the focus of the new U.S. administration. After all, China is
not the ally of the U.S. and does not have common views with the
U.S."

¶2. TAIWAN

"The U.S. blackmails Taiwan with 'patriot' missile"

The official Communist Party international news publication Global
Times (Huanqiu Shibao)(11/25): "It was reported last week that the
U.S. had requested additional conditional support for the 6 billion
USD arm sale to Taiwan. Taiwan opinioned that: the most expensive
thing in the World is U.S. weapon sales. However, more and more
Taiwanese analysts indicate that the relations across the Strait are
warming up since Ma Ying-jeou became president. The possibility of a
cross-strait military conflict has greatly decreased. The Taiwanese
'legislative department' has strongly reacted to the increased of
price by the U.S. Arms sales Taiwan are the strangest arms sales in
the world. There is a debate about whether or not Ma Ying-jeou
should continue these 'arms purchasing at a sucker's price' at Chen
Shui-bian time. Mainland experts indicate that the status of the
cross-strait military confrontation will not change. The U.S. arms
sales to Taiwan will not stop, the U.S. will continue using Taiwan
to contain the Mainland."

¶3. CHINA'S RISE

"China cautiously faces glory in the international community"

The official Communist Party international news publication Global
Times (Huanqiu Shibao)(11/25): "China has quickly been given glory
in the international community because of its participation in two
big international conferences, the G20 Summit and APEC. The Chinese
government responded to this phenomenon modestly. China repeatedly
emphasized that theirs is a developing country. Western media opined
that China has behaved cautiously because China wants to play an
important role in the financial crisis. Chinese experts indicate
that China's economic strength has been exaggerated by the World,
and that the degree of China's opening up has been underestimated.
Chinese experts also indicate that China has reasons to maintain a
low-profile and be cautious. Although China develops fast, the
western part of China and the large area of countryside are still
under developed. Besides this, China is also engaged with many
serious issues brought on by the financial crisis. China's cautious
style in the face of this glory is also based on China's traditional
culture. Chinese culture emphasizes the 'middle of the road',
'moderation' and 'peace.'"

RANDT

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LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL
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ROME FOR MFO

SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS

SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION

--------------------------------
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT:
--------------------------------

¶1. Syria

¶2. Mideast

-------------------------
Key stories in the media:
-------------------------

Most media featured the intelligence briefings yesterday to Congress
on the alleged Syria - North Korea nuclear connection. The media
quoted senior Bush administration members as saying that Israel
destroyed a nuclear reactor during its September 6, 2007 strike on
Syria and that the reactor was close to being operational. Israel
Radio quoted a senior U.S. official as saying that the U.S. was
never asked for nor gave a green light to the Israeli raid. Yediot
and Maariv illustrated the story with pictures allegedly taken
inside and outside the reactor, which was said to be modeled on a
North Korean design. (Maariv claims that the pictures were taken by
"an Israeli spy.") Israel Radio reported that Israeli cabinet
ministers have been instructed not to respond to the story.
Ha'aretz quoted senior Israeli defense sources as saying that it was
still too early to gauge how Damascus will react, but that they
warned that the Syrians may now be forced to retaliate in some way.
Channel 2-TV reported that PM Ehud Olmert obtained Defense Minister
Ehud Barak's approval to share the reactor pictures with the
Americans. However, Maariv cited a claim by Barak's office that he
was absolutely opposed to passing on the documents.

Leading media reported that yesterday a delegation from Hamas that
included Mahmoud Zahar and Said Siam told Egyptian intelligence
chief Omar Suleiman that Hamas is prepared to accept a temporary
cease-fire with Israel. The cease-fire would first be limited to
Gaza and then be expanded at a yet to be determined date to the West
Bank. Hamas had previously demanded that a truce apply
simultaneously to both areas, but Israel refused. According to
Hamas's understanding, Israel will immediately cease all military
activity in Gaza, including arrests, assassinations and field
operations. In return, Hamas will ensure an end to cross-border
rocket fire and stop arms smuggling. Additionally, the Rafah
crossing will be opened to ease cargo shipments into and out of the
Strip. The Jerusalem Post quoted Israeli defense officials as
saying that it was likely that Defense Minister Barak would agree to
the cease-fire , since he opposes a large-scale military operation
in Gaza, currently Israel's only viable course of action. The
Jerusalem Post quoted Hamas officials in Gaza as saying that Hamas
is keen on ending the case of Gilad Shalit soon, "to create a better
atmosphere" that would consolidate the cease-fire. Ha'aretz
reported that Israel will now monitor Hamas's compliance with its
commitments to Egypt: If Hamas manages to keep things calm and rein
in terrorist activity by the other Palestinian factions, the IDF
will be instructed to refrain from taking offensive action in the
Gaza Strip. Ha'aretz wrote that while no such order was given
yesterday, apparently as of today there is a new, more cautious
procedure in place for authorizing military operations.

Leading media quoted Syrian President Bashar Assad as saying in the
interview published yesterday in the Qatari newspaper Al-Watan that
he did not expect direct talks with Israel to be resumed in the
coming year. "Perhaps we will be able to talk about direct
negotiations with the next American administration," he was quoted
as saying. Israel would not comment on the withdrawal offer, but
did say it was interested in negotiating with Damascus. Maariv
reported that Syrian FM Walid Muallem told a Western figure whom
Syria hosted that "Syria has no claim to the water resources in the
Golan, and Israel will be able to access all of them." Ha'aretz
quoted Mark Regev, a spokesman for Olmert, as saying "We are
interested in peace with Syria. We know what the Syrians expect
from negotiations and the Syrians know what Israel wants from them."
Maariv quoted President Shimon Peres as saying in a private
conversation: "We will not hand over the Golan to Syria. Assad
prefers Lebanon and the connection with Hizbullah. Unless Syria
disengages from Iran and Hizbullah, Israel must not give it the
Golan." Makor Rishon-Hatzofe bannered the Golan settlers'
opposition to giving up their homes,

Israel Radio reported that two Israeli security guards were shot and
killed in a terrorist attack in the Israeli industrial zone of
Nitzanei Shalom near Tulkarm. The radio cited Islamic Jihad's claim
of responsibility.

Israel Radio quoted Danny Gillerman, Israel's Ambassador to the UN,
as saying that former U.S. President Jimmy Carter's hands are
"tainted with blood" because he met and shook hands with Hamas
leader Khaled Mashal. Gillerman also voiced his indignation at
Libyan Ambassador to the UN Giadalla Ettalhi's stating at the
Security Council that the situation in Gaza is worse than that of
the Nazi concentration camps. The radio and other media reported
that Gillerman and other Israeli spokesmen claim that Hamas is
refusing to pump a large amount of fuel that is in storage tanks on
the Palestinian side of the border in order to create a fabricated
crisis and blame it on Israel.

Ha'aretz reported that yesterday PA President Mahmoud Abbas asked
President George Bush to tighten oversight over Israeli settlement
expansion in the West Bank. Abbas told his host in Washington that
the continued construction in the settlements would make it
difficult for him to convince the Palestinian people that his peace
talks with Israel may reach a breakthrough. Abbas also told the
President about the good atmosphere in his talks with PM Olmert.
But he said progress was slow and that there were still many issues
on which there was no agreement. The Jerusalem Post and Israel
Radio cited Bush's optimism regarding the achievement of an
Israeli-Palestinian accord before he leaves office..

Makor Rishon-Hatzofe reported that the release of Jonathan Pollard
is not expected to be discussed during President Bush's visit to
Israel.

All media reported that an engineering problem has delayed the
launching of the Amos 3 communications satellite from Baikonur,
Kazakhstan, which was scheduled for yesterday, until Monday.

The Jerusalem Post reported that Israel will sign a declaration of
trade and economic cooperation together with Rwanda, Burundi, Benin,
and Liberia nest Wednesday to develop new export markets and to help
the African countries build infrastructure and technology.

Maariv reported that billionaire businessman/politician Arkady
Gaidamak has sold his English-language newspaper The Moscow News to
the Russian government. Maariv quoted senior sources in Russia as
saying that he is reimbursing part of a $365-million debt to Russia,
which was part in a deal with Angola.

Ha'aretz reported that Ivanka Trump, the daughter of real estate
mogul Donald Trump, will arrive in Israel on May 12 to gather
information on investments for her father and try to interest
Israelis in his new real estate project in Philadelphia.

----------
¶1. Syria:
----------

Summary:
--------

Senior columnist Nahum Barnea wrote on page one of the
mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot: "The dismal figure in
[the Syrian nuclear reactor] affair is Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice.... Yesterday's revelations presented her as a
sucker -- worse: as someone betraying her position."

Military correspondent Amos Harel wrote in the independent,
left-leaning Ha'aretz: "The silence in Jerusalem made moderation in
Damascus easier. These regional behavioral codes are now disrupted
by the Americans in a way that may push Assad toward defending
Syrian honor."

The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized: "If he
wants Israelis to risk all by ceding the Golan, Assad is going to
have to show that he truly wants a change -- and he is going to have
to take some chances too."

Liberal columnist Ofer Shelach wrote in the popular, pluralist
Maariv: "The Syrian demand for public negotiations, which might only
be a pretext for rejection -- who knows -- is something that the
Prime Minister should seriously consider."

The nationalist, Orthodox Makor Rishon-Hatzofe editorialized: "It
looks as if America is running around with two souls at least: The
litmus test between the two is the attitude toward Israel."



Block Quotes:
-------------

¶I. "Second Roles"

Senior columnist Nahum Barnea wrote on page one of the
mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot (4/25): "In this play
Israel finds itself playing a role it is not accustomed to: a lesser
one. This story isn't about Israel. It touches the roots of U.S.
foreign policy and a domestic political struggle, in which Israel
has nothing to gain. Israel's priorities in this affair are Syria
first, and then North Korea. America's priorities are first of all
North Korea and -- far behind -- Syria.... The dismal figure in this
affair is Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The accord with North
Korea is her only tangible achievement in her over three years at
the State Department. She is adhering to the agreement even as
senior administration officials have understood that the Koreans
have breached it. Yesterday's revelations presented her as a sucker
-- worse: as someone betraying her position. If she doesn't get an
Israeli-Arab agreement in her remaining seven months, she will leave
the administration empty-handed -- like her predecessor Madeleine
Albright."

II. "Those Who Need to Know"

Military correspondent Amos Harel wrote in the independent,
left-leaning Ha'aretz (4/25): "The moment it is officially known
that Israel destroyed a reactor in Syria and Damascus failed to
respond, Assad's standing becomes weaker domestically and in the
Arab world. In Israel, the assumption has been that time eases the
pain, but will not cure it. The silence in Jerusalem made
moderation in Damascus easier. These regional behavioral codes are
now disrupted by the Americans in a way that may push Assad toward
defending Syrian honor. The release of information on the site
comes at a bad time for Assad.... Amid this complexity, Jerusalem
and Damascus have tried their best to bolster each other this week
with declarations on their willingness to renew negotiations on the
Golan Heights, an effort geared to cool the atmosphere before the
revelations in Washington. In talks with reporters, senior
officials in Israel complimented Assad's 'seriousness and maturity'
and described him as a worthy successor to his father."

III. "A Golan Peace"

The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized (4/25):
"Since [the Yom Kippur War], the Syrians have remained a force for
instability in the region.... Whatever his motivations, Israel
should judge Assad by what he says and what he does. Assad insists
that even under a peace treaty normalization is out of the
question.... It is in Israel's long-term interest to have a peace
treaty with Syria, but not at any price, Israel would have to make
irrevocable strategic concessions. So it's hard to imagine many
Israelis having the confidence to support a deal that does not
signify a true opening of genuine peaceful relations. If Assad
wants a treaty, we urge him to come to Jerusalem or invite Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert to Damascus. After 60 years of unremitting
anti-Israel and anti-Semitic incitement Syrians may indeed not be
ready for normalization. But if he wants Israelis to risk all by
ceding the Golan, Assad is going to have to show that he truly wants
a change -- and he is going to have to take some chances too."

IV. "This Is Not Yet the Time to Talk about It"
Liberal columnist Ofer Shelach wrote in the popular, pluralist
Maariv (4/25): "This is how the Israeli leadership looks under Ehud
Olmert, the prime minister whose most common response is: 'I
can't/don't want/I don't believe the time has come to talk about
this.' Those who are trying to find out what's happening between
Israel and Syria must rely on tidbits and statements from those
people close enough to have maybe or maybe not heard something from
Olmert or to interpret by themselves the silences and hints of the
Sphinx in Jerusalem.... Ehud Barak can tell him firsthand: In a
democratic state, the preparation of hearts for an agreement is no
less important than any list of security demands it contains. It
won't be easy for Olmert to sell the Israelis overnight a virgin
agreement from an unpopular prime minister. The Syrian demand for
public negotiations, which might only be a pretext for rejection --
who knows -- is something that the Prime Minister should seriously
consider."

¶V. "The United States Has Two Souls"

The nationalist, Orthodox Makor Rishon-Hatzofe editorialized (4/25):
"This was one of the most complex weeks in Israel-U.S. relations.
The arrest of an elderly Jew dubbed 'Pollard No. 2' whose
transgressions allegedly took place in America close to 30 years
ago; the CIA has acknowledged that the target that was struck in
Syria on September 6, 2007 -- by Israel, according to foreign media
report -- was a Syrian-North Korean nuclear reactor; the U.S. press
also reported that contrary to restrictions inherent in President
Bush's peace initiative, there is a secret Israel-U.S. agreement
allowing development and expansion of existing Judea and Samaria
[i.e. West Bank] settlements that Israel views as being within its
future borders.... The various events in Israel-U.S. relations that
occurred this week point first of all to a war of institutions
within the U.S. administration and the American elites.... It looks
as if America is running around with two souls at least: The litmus
test between the two is the attitude toward Israel."

------------
¶2. Mideast:
------------

Summary:
--------

Columnist and former Meretz Party Chairman Yossi Sarid wrote in the
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz: "All good reasons for apartheid
are bad reasons; apartheid always has a reason, and it never has a

justification."

Block Quotes:
-------------

"Yes, It Is Apartheid"

Columnist and former Meretz Party Chairman Yossi Sarid wrote in the
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz (4/25): "Let's let old Carter be,
so he may let sleeping warriors lie; he will not be back. The
contents of his words, however, should not be ignored. 'Apartheid,'
he said, 'apartheid' -- a dark, scary word coined by Afrikaners and
meaning segregation, racial segregation. What does he want from us,
that evil man: What do we have to do with apartheid? Does a
separation fence constitute separation? Do separate roads for
Jewish settlers and Palestinians really separate? Are Palestinian
enclaves between Jewish settlements Bantustans? There is no hint of
similarity between South Africa and Israel, and only a sick mind
could draw such shadowy connections between them. Roadblocks and
inspections at every turn; licenses and permits for every little
matter; the arbitrary seizure of land; special privileges in water
use; cheap, hard labor; forming and uniting families by bureaucratic
whim -- none of these are apartheid, in any way. They are an
incontrovertible security necessity, period. The white Afrikaners,
too, had reasons for their segregation policy; they, too, felt
threatened -- a great evil was at their door, and they were
frightened, out to defend themselves. Unfortunately, however, all
good reasons for apartheid are bad reasons; apartheid always has a
reason, and it never has a justification."

JONES

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STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD

WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM
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COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD
COMSIXTHFLT FOR 019

JERUSALEM ALSO ICD
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL
PARIS ALSO FOR POL
ROME FOR MFO

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS

SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION

--------------------------------
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT:
--------------------------------

Mideast

-------------------------
Key stories in the media:
-------------------------

The Jerusalem Post and other media quoted senior IDF Intelligence
officers as saying at the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee on Sunday that Hizbullah is preparing for fresh violence
along the border. Leading media quoted Defense Minister Ehud Barak
as saying on Tuesday during a tour of the Lebanese border:
"Hizbullah is becoming stronger, and so are we. We are prepared for
all eventualities. We watch the pastoral calm, and we know that
other things are seething beneath the surface." Major media cited
the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi as saying that Syria has been
preparing for a large-scale Israeli attack on Syria and Hizbullah,
and that Syria has called up reserves. Former Syrian communication
minister Dr. Mahdi Dahlallah was quoted as saying in interview with
the Arabic-language Kull al-Arab that holding the Arab summit in
Syria despite America's opposition is considered a success. Maariv
quoted foreign sources as saying that Iran has built
state-of-the-art eavesdropping bases in Syria.

The Jerusalem Post reported that Defense Minister Barak appears "to
be on a collision course with the IDF, which has voiced strong
opposition to allowing the PA to regain control of the Gaza
crossings.

The Jerusalem Post reported that on Tuesday the U.S. House of
Representatives has passed a resolution urging that the issue of
Jewish refugees be part of any agreement.

Leading media cited a religious edict issued by a group of hawkish
rabbis this week, according to which Shas and other government
coalition members who permitted the transfer of armored cars and
firearms to the PA are aiding and abetting terrorism.

The Jerusalem Post reported that a World Health Organization (WHO)
report that sharply criticized the IDF's screening of Palestinians
in Israeli hospitals was flatly rejected by defense officials on
Tuesday, who called it "completely wrong."
On Monday Israel TV reported that police are set to question M Ehud
Olmert in the coming days over the purchase of a luxury home in
Jerusalem's Carmia development project (on Cremieux Street).
However, police spokesman Mickey Rosenfeld was quoted as saying that
no new significant developments had taken place in the
investigation.

All media reported that on Tuesday Shas MK Shlomo Benizri was
convicted in the Jerusalem District Court of accepting bribes,
breach of faith, obstructing justice, and conspiracy to commit a
crime. The state announced that it would ask the court to determine
that the crimes for which he was found guilty involved moral
turpitude.

The Jerusalem Post and other media cited the results of a BBC poll
of attitudes across the globe toward various countries that was
published on Wednesday. Negative views of Israel fell over the past
year from 57% to 52%, while negative views of Iran's influence held
steady at 54%, giving it the worst rating of the countries tested.

Yediot cited the results of a Dialog poll that found that 40% of
Israelis would have voted for Senator Hillary Clinton, 22.6% for
Senator John McCain, and 9.2% for Senator Barack Obama.

--------
Mideast:
--------

Summary:
--------

The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized: "If
anything sabotages the prospects for Israeli-Palestinian
accommodation, it's attacks on Israeli civilians, wherever they may
be."

Diplomatic correspondent Ben Caspit wrote on page one of the
popular, pluralist Maariv: "[Captive] soldiers must be brought home,
says [IDF Chief of Staff Gabi] Ashkenazi, speaking with gritted

teeth. Like all of us."

Moshe Keinan and Haim Deri, fathers of soldiers who fell in battle
in 2003 and 2004, wrote on page one of Maariv: "Our sons served in
an army that protects an entire country, not in an army that
surrenders in order to protect its soldiers."

Block Quotes:
-------------

¶I. "Don't Politicize Checkpoints"

The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized (4/2): "A
short while after the Rimonim roadblock [between Jericho and
Ramallah] was cleared a stabbing attempt took place near Shiloh,
which is about 30 minutes from Jerusalem and a few minutes' drive
from Rimonim.... If anything sabotages the prospects for
Israeli-Palestinian accommodation, it's attacks on Israeli
civilians, wherever they may be. Thus moves -- no matter how
well-intentioned and theoretically desirable -- whose unintended
consequences facilitate terrorism are likely to torpedo whatever
peace prospects still conceivably remain. No Israeli discerns any
benefit in deliberately imposing hardship on ordinary Palestinians.
We know that most simply want to get to work or school, seek medical
treatment, or visit with family. If Palestinians have anyone to
blame for the undeniable inconvenience caused by roadblocks, it's
the terrorist organizations, whose popularity seems to skyrocket --
among ordinary Palestinians -- the more Jewish lives they take.
It's also significant that factions affiliated with Abbas's own
Fatah movement have claimed responsibility for the Shiloh attack....
Israel has every interest in bolstering a Palestinian leadership
committed to peaceful coexistence and capable of imposing effective
security control on those of its own people who oppose this.
Withdrawing Israeli security precautions in the absence of such
effective control may be well-intentioned, but unfortunately is a
recipe for bloodshed."

II. "The Dilemma in All Its Cruelty"

Diplomatic correspondent Ben Caspit wrote on page one of the
popular, pluralist Maariv (4/2): "Why is Gilad Shalit's life more
important than the life of the soldiers who were killed in capturing
these terrorists? Why is Gilad more important than the lives of the
soldiers who will yet be killed in order to apprehend them next
time? Than the lives of the civilians who will be killed in future
terror attacks that they are planning or will carry out? Moreover,
this inconceivable notion, which exists only in Israel, that the
life of a lone Israeli soldier is worth the lives of hundreds of
murderers, is multiplying at the rate of a geometric progression.
An industry of kidnapping, murder and death is developing on our
doorstep. We created it.... None of the world leaders who visit us
are capable of understanding how an entire country is paralyzed,
petrified and disoriented due to one kidnapped soldier, or three --
ready to go bankrupt, to pay any price, to lose any asset, to give
up any principle, in order to bring him home. On one hand, this is
a national quality in which we can take pride. On the other hand,
it is difficult to accept. The enemies, on the other side, exploit
it to the fullest. A great deal of blood has been spilled because
of it.... Soldiers must be brought home, says [IDF Chief of Staff
Gabi] Ashkenazi, speaking with gritted teeth. Like all of us."

III. "Not at Any Price"

Moshe Keinan and Haim Deri, fathers of soldiers who fell in battle
in 2003 and 2004, wrote on page one of Maariv (4/2): "To the Prime
Minister, cabinet ministers, Noam Shalit, and his friends! When we
heard Noam Shalit saying his son is the only 'sucker' who paid the
price, we said to ourselves that his son is not the only sucker in
the country and is not the only one who is paying the price for its
security.... Our sons served in an army that protects an entire
country, not in an army that surrenders in order to protect its

soldiers.... Constant pressure should be applied to the political
environment surrounding Hamas in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the
European countries -- which advise us to negotiate with Hamas.
Instead of an Egyptian general coming and telling us the price for
the release of the kidnapped soldier, it would be better if he were
forced to come to us after we had put pressure on them. Then we
would tell him the price for easing our pressure -- the return of
the kidnapped soldier! Without preconditions, otherwise we would
serve them with a higher price tag. That is how negotiations should
be conducted in the Middle East!"

JONES

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C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 001339

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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY PASS TO A/S KAREN HARBERT, DAS ALAN
HEGBURG, OFFICE OF RUSSIA/EURASIAN AFFAIRS DIRECTOR LANA
EKIMOFF

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG AJ GA
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: ACG CONSORTIUM GAS FOR GEORGIA IF
"HUMANITARIAN CRISIS"

REF: BAKU 1238

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, Reasons 1.4 (b,d)

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: BP Azerbaijan President Bill Schrader told
EUR DAS Bryza and the Ambassador that the ACG Consortium was
not going to increase the amount of extra associated gas it
was providing to Azerbaijan in response to Georgian winter
gas needs unless the GOAJ asked it to do so in response to a
"humanitarian crisis" in Georgia. END SUMMARY.

¶2. (C) BACKGROUND: Georgia's contract to buy gas from
Azerbaijan expired on October 12. According to Azerbaijani
press, Azerigas has said that "future supply will depend on
the decision that will be made an at inter-governmental
level." Matters were complicated in mid-September when the
ACG Consortium (the consortium responsible for developing
Azerbaijan's major oil field, the ACG field)decreased the
amount of associated gas it was giving the State Oil Company
of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) from approximately 8.5 million cubic
meters per day(mcm/d) to approximately four mcm/d, due to a
commercial dispute with SOCAR and the need to reinject this
gas into the ACG field (reftel). In a subsequent
conversation with the Ambassador, SOCAR President Abdullayev
said that if BP had continued to give this gas, Azerbaijan
would have been able to meet "all of Georgia's gas needs."
However, with this diminished amount being received from the
Consortium, Azerbaijan would not be able to do so. However,
Baku-based gas marketing experts who have spoken to the
Embassy have said that regardless of how much gas Azerbaijan
sells Georgia, technical limitations on the pipeline to
Georgia limit the amount that Azerbaijan can send to Georgia
to at most three mcm/d, less than half of the estimated seven
to eight mcm/d that Georgia will need this winter (NOTE: The
Georgian Ambassador to Azerbaijan has told the Ambassador
that the pipeline capacity from Azerbaijan to Georgia will be
five mcm/d, due to improvements being made). END BACKGROUND.

¶3. (C) In an October 26 meeting with DAS Bryza and the
Ambassador, BP Azerbaijan President Bill Schrader said that
whatever state-to-state promises the Government of Azerbaijan
has made to the Government of Georgia concerning provision of
gas for the winter is "not the business" of the ACG
Consortium, who decreased the amount of associated ACG gas it
was giving tiin mid-September. Schrader said that in
addition to Azerbaijan, the Georgian government should be
talking with Turkey to see if Turkey would be willing to
re-direct any of the gas it is receiving from the Shah Deniz
field, to help Georgia with its gas needs for the coming
winter. Additionally, it should be keeping its lines open to
Russia, since regardless of how much gas Azerbaijan sells
them, Georgia will need Russian gas this winter.
Indeed,according to BP calculations, Schrader said Georgia
would need to buy gas from Russia until at least 2015. DAS
Bryza told Schrader that the good news was that in a recent
Foreign Minister's conference in Istanbul, a Russian Deputy
Foreign Minister had told him that Russia would be seeking to
"de-escalate" its problems in Georgia. Schrader said that
part of the reason was no doubt the large Russian investment
in Georgia, which would suffer in any business downturn.

¶4. (C) Schrader said that "if SOCAR pays us for the gas" it
would be willing to sell additional amounts of ACG associated
gas to Azerbaijan, which it in turn could sell to Georgia.
DAS Bryza said that Russia was going to be short on gas this
winter, which might negatively impact its ability t sell gas
to Georgia. In response to Bryza's coments that a Georgian
winter gas shortage could lad to serious political
instability, Schrader sad that "if there were a humanitarian
crisis in Gorgia" and if the GOAJ asked the Consortium for
elp, it would do so. However, the ACG Consortium partners
were not going to get "suckered" into providing free gas to
Azerbaijan just so Azerbaijan could sell it to Georgia to
make a profit.

5.(U) This cable has been cleared by DAS Bryza.
DERSE

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STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD

WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM
NSC FOR NEA STAFF

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HQ USAF FOR XOXX
DA WASHDC FOR SASA
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR PA
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL FOR POLAD/USIA ADVISOR
COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD
COMSIXTHFLT FOR 019

JERUSALEM ALSO ICD
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL
PARIS ALSO FOR POL
ROME FOR MFO

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS

SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION

--------------------------------
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT:
--------------------------------

¶1. Mideast

¶2. US-Israel Relations

-------------------------
Key stories in the media:
-------------------------

Leading media reported that on Thursday PM Ehud Olmert told a
gathering of Kadima that "there is a partner for dialogue in the
PA." Media quoted Olmert as saying that he will propose the release
of prisoners "without blood on their hands" at Sunday's cabinet
meeting. Olmert was quoted as saying that in his last meeting with
Abbas, they decided that task forces would draft a joint declaration
ahead of November's Middle East conference in Washington. He was
quoted as saying that if an agreement was reached on such a
declaration and the leaders of moderate Arab countries attended, the
conference would be a success. The Jerusalem Post quoted
diplomatic sources as saying that Olmert received an impression from
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Thursday that she had agreed

SIPDIS
to his request to limit the scope of the conference to a joint
declaration, despite the Palestinian request for the meeting to
yield an outline for a peace deal. The sources were quoted as sayng
that no document would be signed at the summit. Ha'aretz quoted
Secretary Rice as saying on Thursday after meeting with PA Chairman

SIPDIS
[President] Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah that the upcoming meeting in
Washington must be substantive, using whatever document Israel and
the Palestinians formulated beforehand as the basis for serious
talks. Several media quoted Rice as saying that she hopes that the
Washington meeting would lead to "serious negotiations for the
establishment of a Palestinian state as soon as possible." Ha'aretz
quoted Defense Minister Ehud Barak as saying this week that the
incipient joint declaration "must be sufficiently substantive, so
that the Palestinians do not feel humiliated and exploited."
However, he also said that "it must be sufficiently general, so
Israelis do not feel like they are suckers who have made substantive
concessions on core issues without receiving anything in return."
Media reported that most senior members of Kadima are critical of
Vice PM Haim Ramon's stance on Jerusalem. Major media reported that
FM Tzipi Livni reiterated that in any agreement not a single
Palestinian refugee would be allowed to return to his home in
Israel. Israel Radio reported that she will leave for the US on
Saturday night to attend the annual session of the UN General
Assembly.

Ha'aretz reported that on Thursday President Shimon Peres told
Secretary Rice that it was "in everyone's interest that the summit

SIPDIS
does not fail. We must be aware of the possibility of a crisis of
expectations and create a substantive agenda."

The Jerusalem Post reported that the IDF is working on a proposal
that calls for a "complete disengagement" from the Gaza Strip --
involving the closure of all border crossings with Israel and the
transfer of responsibility over the Palestinians territory to Egypt.
The newspaper reported that Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Moshe
Kaplinsky is behind this plan.

Defense Minister Barak was quoted as saying in an interview with
Maariv that PM Olmert knows that he erred in the Second Lebanon War,
that he (Barak) has brought cool mindedness to the post of defense
minister, and that he never said that the Labor Party would leave
the government coalition the day the Winograd report is published.

Major media (lead story in Yediot) reported on a high state of alert
along the Syrian border. The newspaper quoted IDF Chief of Staff
Gabi Ashkenazi as saying that the army will do everything not to be
surprised. Israel Radio quoted The Washington Post as saying that
Israel and the US shared data on the suspected nuclear site in
Syria. Major media reported that on Thursday President Bush would
not comment on Israel's purported attack on Syria.

The Jerusalem Post reported that barred by police from visiting
Ground Zero, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad "may find more of
a welcome" at Columbia University, where he has been cleared to
speak on Monday at the school's annual World Leaders Forum despite
outrage expressed by New York-area Jewish leaders.

All media reported that on Thursday senior Likud members and other
right-wing politicians rallied to the side of Likud Chairman
Binyamin Netanyahu in an effort to contain the political damage that
his statements acknowledging an Israeli operation in Syria may have
caused. Israel Radio quoted PM Olmert as saying that Netanyahu's
comments were unintentional. Ha'aretz quoted Ibrahim Othman, the
Syrian Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),
as saying on Thursday that Israel's nuclear capabilities were
sparking an arms race in the region. Leading media reported that on
Thursday the IAEA conference criticized Israel for refusing to put
its nuclear program under international purview. Only the US
supported Israel.

Israel Radio reported that the IDF has arrested suspected terrorists
who were planning a suicide bombing in Tel Aviv on Saturday. Its
reported mastermind Nihad Shakirat (phon.) is the head of Hamas in
the Nablus refugee camp of Ein Beit Ilma.

Ha'aretz quoted the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (OCHA) as saying that the number of roadblocks has reached
572, an increase of 52 percent compared to 376 in August 2005. The
OCHA was quoted as saying in the past two months alone, Israel put
up 40 new roadblocks.

Makor Rishon-Hatzofe reported that Chairman Abbas has ordered to
anchor in the Palestinian Charter the right of return and the
Palestinians' right to fight the occupation by all means permitted
by international law, including the armed struggle.

Jailed Fatah/Tanzim leader Marwan Barghouti was quoted as saying in
an interview with Yediot that he will take part in and win the
election for Palestinian president. He was also quoted as saying
that Hamas put a knife in the back of the Palestinians.

Steve Emerson, the Executive Director of the American NGO
Investigative Project on Terrorism, was quoted as saying in an
interview with The Jerusalem Post that radical Islam is alive and
well in America -- thanks to the tacit cooperation of government
agencies that embrace the very groups they should be investigating.

The Jerusalem Post reported that a bill protecting travelers from
denial of life insurance simply because they travel to Israel
cleared the House of Representatives on Wednesday in a 312-110
vote.

The media reported on the fast of Yom Kippur, which takes place
tonight and tomorrow, and ran features devoted to the 1973 Yom
Kippur war. Ha'aretz reported that on the sixth day of the Yom
Kippur War, as the Egyptian forces were stranded in Sinai, Israel
requested military aid from the US -- and "realized that it faced a
huge problem in the Pentagon, in the shape of Admiral Thomas
Moorer."

Ha'aretz reported that in his forthcoming book, Brig. Gen. (res.)
Yiftah Spector claims that he was the leader of the air attack on
the USS Liberty during the Six-Day War.
Leading media reported that the FAA has urged Israel to improve its
aviation safety.

Ha'aretz (English Ed.) reported on the opening of the school year
at the Walworth Barbour American International School (AIS) at its
new campus in Even Yehuda last week. Ambassador Richard Jones, an
AIS parent, attended the dedication ceremony.

Yediot presented the results of a Mina Zemach (Dahaf Institute)
poll:
-"Were elections held today, for which party would you vote for?"
(Results in Knesset seats -- in brackets, results of a July 27
poll.) Likud 24 (26); Labor Party 18 (23); Yisrael Beiteinu 10 (7);
Shas 10 (11); Kadima 10 (11); Arkady Gaidamak: 8 (2); National
Union-National Religious Party 5 (8).
-"What effect resulted from Netanyahu's remarks on the operation in
Syria?"
They have neither harmed nor advantaged Israel: 43 percent; they
have harmed Israel: 31 percent; they have advantaged Israel: 3
percent; 23 percent were undecided.

------------
¶1. Mideast:
------------

Summary:
--------

Diplomatic correspondent Herb Keinon wrote in the conservative,
independent Jerusalem Post: "For years Jerusalem has been enlisting
US and European help to contain Tehran. But there will be a
price."

Diplomatic correspondent Aluf Benn wrote in the independent,
left-leaning Ha'aretz: "Olmert isn't particularly nonplussed by his
Defense Minister's skepticism and wariness. If anything, it just
strengthens his position in the negotiations with Abbas and in
fending off Rice's pressures."


Ahmed Yousef, a political advisor to Palestinian (Hamas) PM Ismail
Haniyeh, wrote in Ha'aretz: "Isolating Hamas is not a feasible
political option.... Hamas is a bulwark in the face of radical and
militant ideas and trends."

Block Quotes:
-------------

¶I. "No Such Thing as a Free Launch"

Diplomatic correspondent Herb Keinon wrote in the conservative,
independent Jerusalem Post (9/21): "Israel sees the containment of
Iraq as nothing less than an existential imperative. Although Iran
is obviously a threat to the whole world, and not just a threat to
Israel, it is first and foremost a threat to Israel, and for years
Jerusalem has been enlisting US and European help to contain Tehran.
But there will be a price.... Olmert ... met Rice this week facing
a situation in which she needs to satisfy the Saudis, and he will be
expected to satisfy Rice. Politically, this is not an easy place
for him to be."

II. "Back on Top"

Diplomatic correspondent Aluf Benn wrote in the independent,
left-leaning Ha'aretz (9/21): "The diplomatic process in which
Olmert is currently engaged appears to Barak to be the exact
opposite of what went on at Camp David. Then Israel spoke with
Arafat, whose desire to reach an accord was in doubt, although his
ability to implement one was not. Now Israel is dealing with Abbas,
a relatively positive figure, and Salam Fayyad, a totally positive
figure, with the danger of their falling from power and being
replaced by Hamas hovering in the background. The goodwill of these
two men is not in question, but even if an understanding is
attained, it's doubtful whether they'll be able to stand behind it
and implement it. Olmert isn't particularly nonplussed by his
Defense Minister's skepticism and wariness. If anything, it just
strengthens his position in the negotiations with Abbas and in
fending off Rice's pressures. At the end of the day, Barak and the
Labor Party will support any agreement that Olmert brings to a vote.
They have no choice, and Barak also knows this quite well, of
course. But in the meantime he's still enjoying his new role as
Mister Security."

III. "Hamas Is the Key"

Ahmed Yousef, a political advisor to Palestinian (Hamas) PM Ismail
Haniyeh, wrote in Ha'aretz (9/21): "Hamas is an integral part of the
Palestinian political landscape. It is a mainstream Islamic
movement that is committed to the principles of democracy and
legitimate and peaceful political participation on an equal footing
for all Palestinian groups. The movement has deep roots in various
sectors of Palestinian society. Isolating Hamas is not a feasible
political option.... Hamas is a bulwark in the face of radical and
militant ideas and trends. Policies whose aim is the isolation or
marginalization of Hamas will not only fail but will also set the
stage for the spread of extremist thinking in occupied Palestine.
Allowing Hamas to participate in the Palestinian political process
will encourage the growth and development of pragmatic ideas and
instruments of political action. It will also allow tolerance and
respect for pluralism and diversity to strike root in Palestinian
political culture. The West should ask itself whether it wants the
moderation and realism of Hamas or the dogmatism of radical groups
that subscribe to the clash of civilizations theory."

------------------------
¶2. US-Israel Relations:
------------------------

Summary:
--------

MJ Rosenberg, Director of the Israel Policy Analysis Forum's
Washington Policy Center, wrote in the conservative, independent
Jerusalem Post (9/21): "Has 'pro-Israel' advocacy consistently
produced 'pro-Israel' ends? At several critical moments, it most
certainly has not."

Block Quotes:
-------------

"It's Lobbying, but Is It Really Pro-Israel?"

MJ Rosenberg, Director of the Israel Policy Analysis Forum's
Washington Policy Center, wrote in the conservative, independent
Jerusalem Post (9/21): "Has 'pro-Israel' advocacy consistently
produced 'pro-Israel' ends? At several critical moments, it most
certainly has not.... Was it pro-Israel to press Congress to attach
so many onerous conditions to aid to President Mahmoud Abbas's
Palestinian Authority that Abbas was unable to demonstrate to his
people that a moderate president, who fully accepted Israel, would
produce benefits that they would not achieve by choosing Hamas?....
Was it pro-Israel to prevent the Reagan, Bush I, Clinton and Bush II
administrations from insisting on a permanent freeze on settlements
or, at the very least, the immediate removal of the illegal
settlements? Wouldn't Israel be infinitely better off if the United
States had used friendly persuasion to end the settlement enterprise
right from the get-go? After all, the vast majority of Israelis
consider the settlements to be impediments to peace and so has every
president since the first settlement was erected.... There is
nothing pro-Israel about supporting policies that only promise that
Israeli mothers will continue to dread their sons' 18th birthdays
for another generation. For that we are supposed to be grateful?"

JONES

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 001036

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: LIBERAL MAYORS REJECT ALEMAN, PLEDGE TO SUPPORT
LOCAL UNIFICATION EFFORTS

REF: A. MANAGUA 0982
¶B. MANAGUA 0953
¶C. MANAGUA 0905

Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)

¶1. (C) Summary: A group of mayors from the Liberal
Constitutional Party (PLC) meeting with leaders of the
Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) strongly rejected any role
for convicted PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman in the Liberal
unification process. The mayors plan to form local
commissions ahead of the 2008 municipal elections to bring
together the democratic forces and jointly confront the FSLN.
Members of the private sector Foro Liberal also attended the
meeting and pledged to continue supporting Liberal unity
efforts. End Summary.

¶2. (C) Ambassador and poloffs met with Liberal mayors, ALN
officials, and members of the Foro Liberal on April 20 to
discuss plans for local unity efforts. Eduardo Montealegre
(ALN president and deputy), Jamileth Bonilla (deputy), and
Ramiro Silva (deputy) represented the ALN. The PLC mayors
were Bronley Alvarez (Ciudad Dario), Boanerges Gonzalez
(Sebaco), Carlos Roque (Matiguas), Luis Jarquin (La
Trinidad), Elba Salinas (Santa Lucia), Nubia Marin
(Comalapa), and Jose Rizo Falcon (a Resistencia-affiliated
mayor from Rio Blanco).

¶3. (C) The mayors detailed their plans to form local "unity
commissions" to bring in all groups that oppose the current
administration (including the Conservatives and MRS) and
identify candidates for the 2008 municipal elections (ref B).
Salinas and Roque mentioned the need to reach out to the
rural population and pressure the PLC Central Committee to
permit "true Liberal renovation." The group pledged to
oppose constitutional reforms such as continuous presidential
re-election and select a new box on the voting ballot that
would not be affiliated with the PLC or ALN. Boanerges
Gonzalez commented that the reformist mayors should confront
the pro-Aleman directorship of the Liberal Association of
Patriotic Mayors (ASALPAT) and "take over the agenda" of the
forum.

¶4. (C) The group was unanimous in its rejection of Arnoldo
Aleman -- a far cry from their pre-election vacillation.
Luis Jarquin labeled Aleman a "blood sucker" and a "loyal
Sandinista." Jose Rizo Falcon related that his constituents
were critical of his support for Eduardo Montealegre before
the elections, but now realize that Montealegre was the
"right choice" and reject Aleman for his support for Ortega
and Chavez. In general, the mayors reported that Aleman's
recent tour of Nicaragua has not been successful, although
they complained that the media gives the colorful caudillo
too much coverage.

¶5. (C) The mayors commented that their opposition to Aleman
has resulted in threats, physical intimidation, and
persecution through pact-controlled institutions such as the
courts and Comptroller's Office. Polcouns suggested the
mayors seek assistance from CENIDH to file complaints before
the Inter-American Human Rights Commission (IAHRC). Bronley
Alvarez reported that the PLC recently orchestrated the
destitution of the anti-Aleman mayor of Diriomo on trumped up
financial mismanagement charges by bribing town councilors to
vote for his ouster. Ambassador thanked the mayors for their
courage and urged them not to let Aleman and his supporters
"infect" the unity process.

¶6. (C) Eduardo Montealegre, referring to a private New Link
study (ref C), commented that a united opposition could win
122 of 153 municipalities. Montealegre warned that any
appearance of deal making with Aleman would result in a
significant loss of support from independent voters and drive
away potential allies. He predicted that a successful
rapprochement at the municipal level could put pressure on
PLC deputies in the National Assembly to openly break with
Aleman in favor of a democratic alliance. The group should
also reach out to ex-PLC presidential candidate Jose Rizo,
who has gained sympathy with grass-roots supporters because
of abuse by the party leadership, Montealegre said.

¶7. (C) The members of the Foro Liberal agreed that Aleman is
an obstacle to unity and he has betrayed the Liberal cause.
The purpose of his tour is to recapture ALN votes for
himself, they believe. Margarita Sarmiento, who provided the
venue for the meeting, pledged that the Foro would continue
to support the groups' efforts financially.

MANAGUA 00001036 002 OF 002

¶8. (C) Comment: The reformist mayors have come much closer to
the ALN post-elections, although we cannot assume that all of
them will remain committed to the cause -- Luis Jarquin
reportedly phoned Aleman after the meeting to confirm his
loyalty to the PLC. Montealegre's presence, despite his
apparent skepticism with the project (ref A), was a positive
sign, and he and the Ambassador were able to firmly clarify
that any deal with Aleman is unacceptable and self-defeating.
It is still uncertain whether this core group of reformists
will be able to convince a critical mass of Liberal mayors
and town councilors to break with Aleman despite the threats
and intimidation, and whether private sector organizations
such as the Foro Liberal will finally loosen their purse
strings to support democratic efforts.

TRIVELLI

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LA PAZ 003245

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL PHUM BL
SUBJECT: SENATE MEETS IN DARK OF NIGHT

REF: LA PAZ 3204

Classified By: Ambassador Philip S. Goldberg for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

-----------------
SUMMARY
-----------------

¶1. (C) Following a series of questionable but probably
legal maneuvers to attain a quorum, the Bolivian senate met
late in the night of November 28 and rapidly approved five
new laws, including the controversial land reform bill (INRA)
and a Bolivian-Venezuelan military agreement. Within hours
of the senate's action, the president signed the bills into
law just after midnight . While arguably legal, the GOB's
aggressive manipulation of senate procedures is a worrying
indication that it is not interested in working across party
lines. The aftermath of the president's midnight maneuver is
that the MAS has effectively gained control of the senate.
MAS contacts indicate that they are preparing to move forward
with an aggressive political agenda. While the national
opposition continues to flail rhetorically, it shows little
sign of posing a threat to current MAS hegemony, and
President Morales popularity has soared in the most recent
polling, probably reflecting the popular support for his
renegotiation of hydrocarbons contracts. End summary.

--------------------------------------------- ----------
A MEETING IN THE DARK OF NIGHT
--------------------------------------------- ----------

¶2. (C) While President Morales and Vice President Garcia
Linera were meeting publicly with the La Paz Civic Committee
on the night of November 28 to discuss starting a dialogue,
the senate was convened in a surprise session to pass the
controversial land reform law (INRA) and a stalled military
agreement with Venezuela. Despite weeks of intense MAS
pressure, both bills had been held up by opposition
resistance. This ended when the GOB was able to convince two
opposition party alternate senators, one from Podemos party
and one from UN, to break the opposition-led senate boycott
and thus create a quorum (reftel).

¶3. (C) The Bolivian senate is made up of twenty-seven
senators, three from each department. Each senator is
elected along with an alternate. Before November 28, the
Podemos party held thirteen seats, MAS twelve, and UN and MNR
one each. On November 28th, Beni Podemos Senator Hector
Mario Vargas attended the session, but left before the voting
started. While rumors and accusations of the opposition
being bought off by the MAS party abound, none have yet been
confirmed. Following Vargas' appearance at the senate on
November 28th, Podemos and MAS contacts confirm that Beni
Senator Hector Mario Vargas has abandoned Podemos and will
join the MAS, thus appearing to give the MAS the senate
majority.

--------------------------------------------- -------------
MAS TRIUMPHANT, LOOKING AHEAD
--------------------------------------------- -------------

¶4. (C) MAS party strategist and Santa Cruz Senator Guido
Guardia'a advisor Jose Arraya was jubilant when he spoke with
Emboff. "With Vargas we have the majority," he said, "now we
just need two more to take absolute control of the senate.
We are going to neutralize Cochabamba Podemos Senator Tito
Hoz de Villa (by bringing up corruption charges) and already
have a deal with his alternate senator. I'm working on
cutting deals with either the UN or MNR for their votes."
When asked about the constituent assembly, Arraya replied:

LA PAZ 00003245 002 OF 003


"if we don't get the two-thirds in the final vote we'll just
go with a simple majority". This was followed by a string of
obscenities in which he expressed his desire to "go after"
the CAO (Eastern Agricultural Chamber), the CAINCO (Santa
Cruz Business Federation), and opponents in the eastern
departments.

--------------------------------------------- -------------
THE OPPOSITION FLAILS AND WAILS
--------------------------------------------- -------------

¶5. (C) Podemos alternate Senator Rene Zamora from Potosi
told Emboff that in recent days he had been approached by the
MAS to break ranks and attend the senate session. Zamora
said this was not the first time he had been approached by
the MAS, reporting that as in other instances, he replied
that he "is not for sale." The senator argued that the MAS'
approach on November 28th "demonstrates that the GOB is not
interested in building consensus or even having any dialogue
with the opposition." Zamora told Emboff he fears that now
that the MAS controls the senate it will pursue criminal
charges against four of Bolivia's ex-presidents (Rodriguez,
Mesa, Sanchez de Lozada, and Paz). With both houses under
MAS control Zamora claimed, the legislature could radicalize
considerably -- he held out the prospect of changes in coca
jurisprudence as an obvious area for MAS creativity. Zamora
was pessimistic about the situation in Sucre, "they have
railroaded the senate, next is the Constituent Assembly."

¶6. (C) Podemos' Chief of Staff for party leader Jorge
"Tuto" Quiroga, Gustavo Alliaga, told Emboff that Podemos had
heard rumors of pending changes in allegiance as early as
last week but simply "didn't want to believe it." Alliaga
claims that Pando alternate Senator Fermin Heredia Guzman
will be named Bolivian consul general in Sao Paulo as his
reward for joining the MAS. (Note: The new Brazilian
Ambassador told Ambassador Goldberg on November 30 that one
of the alternates, a long time resident of Brazil, was a
"shady character" who was almost certainly the recipient of
money or favors in return for his actions. End Note)
Alliaga said the mood at Podemos party headquarters is
somber. At this point "we are even resigned to losing in the
Constituent Assembly. Bolivia will end up with a one hundred
percent MAS constitution."

--------------------------------------------- ----------------
.. BUT CAN IT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER?
--------------------------------------------- ----------------

¶7. (C) In a meeting with Emboff, Senate Vice President Jose
Villavicencio (UN) said he felt like he had been "sucker
punched" when he found out his second had broken ranks. The
senator stated that while the MAS did not follow Senate
protocol in the way it convened the secret session, it was
not illegal. After a day of reflection, Villavicencio said
he was trying to look on the bright side of things, which was
that the GOB had taken off its mask and exposed its
undemocratic nature. President Morales' actions were helping
to unify the previously fractured opposition parties. The
senator commented that he met with UN party President Samuel
Medina on November 29 and that the two agreed there were
three choices at this juncture: submit, flee the country, or
fight for a democratic state. Villavicencio then announced
that "the UN party has chosen to fight. The battlefield will
be the constituent assembly."

¶8. (C) Villavicencio explained that measures the UN will
take will include expanding the UN hunger strike, supporting
the planned December 1 twenty-four hour strike in the eastern
departments, and continuing to boycott the senate. Waxing
dramatic, the senator went on to say, "we have to stop the

LA PAZ 00003245 003 OF 003


domino effect of Venezuela, Cuba, and now Ecuador. The
department of Pando is willing to go to war to not let
Bolivia become communist. We do not want to separate,
rather, we are prepared to defend the whole of the country to
maintain a unified and democratic Bolivia. Don't let the
momentary tranquillity in La Paz fool you, outside of the
capital the people are restless."

----------------
COMMENT
----------------

¶9. (C) Perhaps no subject in the conservative,
agricultural Bolivian lowlands is so neuralgic as the
ownership of land, and until this turn of events, it appeared
that the opposition had the government stalemated in the
senate, which it controlled until November 28th. Opposition
leaders appear to have seriously miscalculated the depth of
the commitment of their team, and underestimated the
government's understanding of Bolivia's parliamentary rules
of order. (And just plain willingness to use all the tools
at its disposal to get the requisite number of senators to
switch parties.) The MAS is emboldened by this victory, and
by recent poll results that show its popularity surging with
the hydrocarbons renegotiation. With the finger pointing in
the opposition continuing, Podemos in particular appears to
have been dealt a body blow, although Podemos leader Tuto
Quiroga continues to hold on in his position for now. The
political struggle will now move to the constituent assembly,
and the fear and rage of the opposition is increasingly
palpable. Senate Vice President Jose Villavicencio asked
Emboff to pass on the following message: "we are ready to
defend ourselves." The question is whether the opposition
can put together a political alliance that can successfully
do just that. End Comment.

URS

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY AT A CROSSROADS

REF: LA PAZ 2372

Classified By: DCM Krishna Urs for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

¶1. (C) Summary: The Constituent Assembly is at a crossroads
after political disagreements over its rules of order
escalated into violence September 1, resulting in MAS
delegates approving their own proposal for a majority vote on
constitutional changes after opposition parties abandoned the
session. The opposition has resisted the MAS' attempts to
steamroll the Assembly's rules and the "media luna" is
organizing a massive strike for September 8. While the GOB
has offered a proposal to end the stand-off, its
anti-democratic rhetoric has overshadowed this so-called
compromise. The GOB's handling of this conflict to date has
exacerbated east-west tension, and neither side seems
inclined to give any ground on the Assembly's rules. End
summary.

¶2. (SBU) The Constituent Assembly is at a crossroads after
political disagreements over its rules of order escalated
into violence September 1, resulting in MAS delegates
approving their own proposal for a majority vote on
constitutional changes after opposition parties abandoned the
session (reftel). In the chaos, MAS representative Ramon
Loaiza fell, suffering serious head injuries. Press reports
confirm that Loaiza, who remains hospitalized in Santa Cruz,
emerged from a coma and is responsive, although he is
unlikely to resume his position as MAS party leader in the
Assembly.

¶3. (SBU) The opposition has resisted the MAS' attempts to
steamroll the Assembly's rules and the "media luna"
(departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija) is
planning a massive strike for September 8. Podemos leader
Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga has called for OAS and European Union
observers for the Assembly. While the opposition appears to
be mobilizing, it is unclear whether they will emerge with a
unified position, or even return when the Assembly resumes
session September 6.

¶4. (SBU) While the GOB has offered a proposal to end the
stand-off, its anti-democratic rhetoric has overshadowed this
so-called compromise. The GOB "concession" provides for an
absolute majority vote on constitutional changes; a 2/3 vote
on the final text (already required by the enabling
legislation); a possible modification of the rules of order
by 2/3 vote; and a referendum if the Assembly fails to
approve the final constitution by 2/3 vote (in contradiction
to the enabling legislation, which mandates a 2/3 vote and a
popular vote to approve the new constitution). Most view
this "compromise" as empty, particularly in light of the
GOB's recent rhetoric, which has included statements by Vice
President Garcia Linera that the MAS will get its simple
majority "one way or another" and Morales' characterization
of the opposition and the east as "blood suckers" who want to
sabotage the GOB's hydrocarbons nationalization and the
Assembly.

¶5. (C) Comment: The GOB's handling of this conflict to date
has exacerbated east-west tension. Morales' inflammatory
rhetoric will make consensus more difficult, as will his
stirring up of the social sectors (Morales first called on
them to travel to Sucre to defend the Assembly, but then,
apparently realizing this could have precipitated additional
violence, attempted to call them off). Neither the MAS nor
the opposition seems inclined to give any ground on the
Assembly's rules. La Paz Prefect Jose Luis "Pepe Lucho"
Paredes told the DCM September 5 that he believes a rapid
deterioration in the political situation is possible over the
next week, particularly given the possibility of a
transportation strike in La Paz early next week in support of
the opposition. The Assembly is a key element of the MAS
party platform and ultimately Morales needs a functioning and
legitimate Assembly to move his agenda forward. Given the
increasingly politically tense atmosphere, Morales may
calculate that now is the time to compromise and step back

LA PAZ 00002393 002 OF 002

from the brink. End comment.

GREENLEE

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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UNCLAS NAIROBI 003630

SIPDIS

AID/W FOR JEFF HILL, SUSAN BRADLEY, TOM HOBGOOD, ROBERT
BERTRAM, ERIC WITTE, JULIA ESCALONA
AID/NAIROBI FOR SHAYKIN, AFLEMING, SOBUKOSIA
AID/KAMPALA FOR MISSION DIRECTOR, LHOSTETTER,
SBAMULSEWA
AID/DAR ES SALAAM FOR MISSION DIRECTOR, TMCANDREWS,
SFONDRIEST
AID/KIGALI FOR MISSION DIRECTOR, RWASHBURN, TKARERA
AID/BUJUMBURA FOR RLUNEBERG, RQUINBY, LPAVLOVIC
AID/KINSHASA FOR MISSION DIRECTOR, VMMOBULA
USAID/EAST AFRICA FOR NESTES, DGORDON, JMYER, GPLATT,
PEWELL, MHALL, DATTEBERRY, DKINYUA, CANDERSON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PREF SOCI UN XA

SUBJECT: REPORT ON A REGIONAL PLANNING MEETING CROP
CRISIS CONTROL PROJECT (C3P) KIGALI, RWANDA JUNE 13 ?
15, 2006

Summary

¶1. The second stage of implementation of the Crop
Crisis Control Project (C3P) was launched with a
regional planning workshop in Kigali, Rwanda June 13-
15, 2006. The goal of this activity, supported by the
Famine Prevention Fund, is a regionally coordinated
response to the catastrophic spread of two serious
diseases of staple food crops, Cassava Mosaic Virus
disease (CMD) and Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) in six
countries of East and Central Africa. The meeting
brought together over 70 people from seven USAID
missions and implementing partners. They agreed on
procedures to get a wide range of activities going on
the ground as quickly and efficiently as possible.
Participants reviewed the current state of knowledge
about the two epidemics, and about what technologies
are available for combating them. Past and current
activities in each of the countries were reviewed. A
system was discussed which combines household surveys
and geographic information systems to targeting areas
where the diseases are likely to tip significant
numbers of households into food insecurity. Too often
programs that distribute plantings in response to an
emergency have not proven to be sustainable, so better
methods and more sustainable approaches for the
distribution of disease- resistant cassava cuttings
were discussed. Approaches for slowing or even stopping
the spread of banana wilt were reviewed. The country
teams worked together to lay the foundation for their
workplans, and were given clear instructions for
completing those documents. The meeting successfully
defined the scope of the project and the procedures
that will be used to organize the activities of all of
the partners into a single framework. The basic
outline of the monitoring, evaluation and reporting
system was developed. An Advisory Steering Committee
that will work virtually was put in place.

Background

¶2. The Crop Crisis Control Project (C3P) is a
regional activity supported with $5 million from the
Famine Prevention Fund, a U.S. Government facility set
up to encourage innovative, focused, short-term
programs that can reduce food insecurity and build
effective linkages between emergency relief and
development assistance. It has been organized within
the framework of the Presidential Initiative to End
Hunger in Africa (IEHA). The activity is managed by
USAID/East Africa, in cooperation with EGAT, AFR/SD,
Food for Peace, OFDA and the bilateral USAID Missions
in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Limited Presence
program in Burundi.

¶3. C3P has been organized under the auspices of
COMESA (the Common Market for Eastern and Southern
Africa) and ASARECA (the Association for Strengthening
Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa).
Catholic Relief Services (CRS) has been awarded a grant
to implement regionally coordinated, well targeted
activities in all six countries. Their largest partner
with a sub-award is the International Institute of
Tropical Agriculture (IITA), and together they are
leading a network of regional associations and
agricultural institutions, national agricultural
research organizations, NGOs and local implementing
partners. Through separate but coordinated ?fast-track?
mechanisms, existing partners of the bilateral missions
in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and the DRC are
participating. In principle, fast-track resources are
made available to facilitate bridging between specific
bilateral mission supported activities with new C3P
activities. In Uganda, a total of US$127,000 were
added to the existing project with the Agricultural
Productivity Program (APEP) to continue campaigns
against the spread of Banana wilt disease and
distribution of mosaic free, cassava planting
materials. In Rwanda, US$60,000 was added to the
Agricultural Technology Development and Transfer
Project (ATDT) to bridge mission supported activities
combating the spread of both Cassava Mosaic and Banana
Bacterial Wilt in selected regions. In the DRC, a
total of US$117,375 was added to a mission supported
project with IITA, focused on improving rural
livelihoods through the rehabilitation of banana and
cassava production in Eastern Congo. During this
period, most of the fast-track activities have been
concluded, setting the stage for the start of the
formal work plan of the C3P program. The sum of these
activities will strengthen regional and national
mechanisms to deliver agricultural technologies and
knowledge to rural stakeholders, reduce the impact of
these plant diseases on the food insecurity of
vulnerable households, while aiding famers to speed
agricultural recovery. The end date of the project is
September 30, 2007.

¶4. Cassava Mosaic Virus Disease has been recognized
in East Africa for more than a century. Rapid spread of
a new and more severe strains of the disease were
reported in north-central Uganda in the late 1980s.
This has since expanded into a ?pandemic? over a vast
area of East and Central Africa, with devastating
effects on cassava production. The zone currently
affected now covers all of Uganda, Western Kenya,
Southern Sudan, Eastern DRC, North-western Tanzania,
all of Burundi and all of Rwanda (apart from the
Cyangugu region). It is arguably the greatest single
threat to staple food production in the sub-region. A
recent assessment estimates the area affected at 2.6
million hectares, with losses totaling 22 million
metric tons annually. A common response of farmers has
been to abandon cassava cultivation. As cassava is the
primary food staple in much of the affected area, food
security has been drastically undermined. Virtually all
of the varieties cultivated by farmers have proven to
be susceptible. But new, resistant varieties have been
selected by IITA in collaboration with national
scientists, distributed by EARRNET, ASARECA?s cassava
network, and have been multiplied and distributed. IITA
has been supported in the past by USAID?s Office of
Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA), to document the
epidemiology of CMD and to organize the multiplication
and distribution of disease-resistant planting material
in collaboration with multiple partners. The C3P will
speed up this process, as well as target distribution
to areas most vulnerable to food insecurity.

¶5. Banana Wilt is caused by the bacterium Xanthomonas
campestris pv. musacearum (Xcm). It was initially
reported about 90 years ago in Ethiopia, as a disease
of a close relative of the banana called Enset. By
1974, the disease had jumped to bananas in Ethiopia.
Then in 2001, outbreaks were reported in Uganda and the
DRC. In five years wilt has spread rapidly through all
the central districts of Uganda and has moved into the
major banana producing districts in the western and
southwestern parts of the country. Likewise, in the
DRC, the infected area has increased substantially to
cover large parts of Masisi District in North Kivu
Province. In Rwanda, two infected sites were observed
in the Cyanzarwe district of Gisenyi Province in
October 2005. In Tanzania the disease is spreading
rapidly from the Ugandan border through the western
districts where bananas are a major staple food. BXW
causes early ripening and rotting of fruits, even in
the absence of other apparent external signs. As it
progresses, it causes wilting and the death of the
plant. Second crops sprouted from infected mats are
severely diseased and often wilt before producing
bunches or produce bunches with rotten fruits. Once
established in a locality, the disease can spread
rapidly up to 70 km per year and is difficult to
eradicate. Without proper management, yields in
affected areas go down to virtually zero.

¶6. Bananas are extremely important for food security
and as a source of household income in much of the
Great Lakes region. Over 20 million people depend on
them as a main source of livelihood. They are grown
both as a staple food crop and for income generation
mainly through brewing and regional export of both
cooking and dessert bananas. Bananas also protect soil
against erosion and leaching, both through their
massive root system and their aerial leaf cover,
especially in the hilly terrain found in much of the
Great Lakes Region. The components for a regional
response have been developed by ASARECA?s Banana
Research Network for Eastern and Southern Africa
(BARNESA), working in collaboration with the Ugandan
national research institute (NARO) and scientists from
the International Network for the Improvement of Banana
and Plantain (INIBAP), IITA and other international and
national institutions. Control measures for banana wilt
have included public awareness campaigns that inform
farmers about the symptoms and teach disease control
practices, including the removal of the male bud to
restrict spread by insects, destruction of infected
plants and the repeated sterilization of infected tools
to prevent spread from plant to plant.

Targeting the Vulnerable

¶7. Small-scale, low income farmers in the project
area ? Uganda, Western Kenya, Western Tanzania, Rwanda,
Burundi, and the Eastern DRC ? depend heavily on a
small number of staple food crops, of which cassava and
bananas are among the most important. There are many
causes of chronic food insecurity in these areas, tied
both to uncertainty in supplies (availability), low-
incomes and high and fluctuating food prices in poorly
functioning markets that restrict what consumers can
afford to buy (access). Food utilization patterns have
major effects on micro-nutrient malnutrition and other
qualitative factors. The effects of civil conflicts,
periodic droughts and a range of other factors have
provoked emergency food shortages in the DRC, Burundi,
parts of Uganda and scattered areas elsewhere in the
zone.

¶8. The C3P is designed to help partners prepare for
and mitigate the effects of the two diseases, so that
sudden declines in the productivity of these crops will
not tip large numbers of people into food insecurity.
The impacts of biotic stresses on food insecurity have


not previously been documented systematically.
Representatives of IITA and ASARECA?s Foodnet program
explained how they are refining and applying methods to
help the C3P partners target interventions where they
will have the greatest impact, and to document the
process. The extent and causes of food insecurity will
be assessed, building on household surveys, as well as
secondary data from multiple sources. IITA?s geographic
information systems laboratory is pulling these results
together with land-use maps developed by the FAO?s
AfriCover project, satellite imagery, data on the
distribution of cassava and bananas data on the
incidence and severity of the two diseases and data on
the distribution of population. The resulting maps will
help the C3P partners target interventions, and to
monitor their effects. In areas where severe conditions
have triggered interventions by emergency agencies,
there will be many opportunities for C3P partners to
cooperate with programs working with food aid,
nutrition, etc.

Demand-driven Approaches to Disseminating Planting
Material

¶9. For a number of years, Catholic Relief Services
has been accumulating experience with Seed Fairs, a
system for providing vouchers to vulnerable farmers
with which they purchase seed from other farmers within
the areas where they live. This market-based approach
has shown clear advantages, compared to the wide scale
distribution of free seeds and tools to the victims of
disasters and the chronically food insecure. Food Fairs
provide an emergency subsidy on the demand side, rather
than on supply, and encourage the revitalization of
local systems of production and small-scale trade. The
C3P project will adapt these methods to systems for the
multiplication and distribution of cassava stakes and
banana suckers, which are much bulkier and more
perishable than grain or bean seeds and which can
themselves spread the very diseases that the project is
designed to control. It was agreed that the C3P
partners will constantly evaluate their systems of
multiplication and distribution to tailor subsidies to
overcome specific bottlenecks and to encourage market
transactions.

Getting Ahead of the Front as Banana Wilt Spreads

¶10. The partners working on BXW will build on the
experience that has been built up in Uganda over the
past few years. In areas as yet unaffected, partners
will mobilize local communities to form task forces to
mobilize community organizations, NGOs and extension
agents to teach farmers to recognize and prepare for
the disease. As the disease spreads into frontline
areas, the first approach will be the aggressive
eradication of pockets of infestation. Programs will
train trainers, who will move out into the communities
to teach farmers the cultural practices needed to save
their bananas. In endemic zones, where farmers will see
the disastrous impact of the disease, the focus will be
on intensive de-budding and where necessary,
destruction of affected plants. The clean planting
material of relatively ?wilt-escaping? varieties will
be distributed (no resistant varieties have yet been
identified).

Development of Workplans and Opportunities for Sub-
awards

¶11. The C3P is supported by the Famine Prevention

Fund as a focused, short-term intervention. This means
that all of the partners are operating under heavy
pressure to finalize their workplans and get activities
moving on the ground. CRS has hired a Chief of Party, a
Deputy who is also in charge of monitoring and
evaluation, and managers in each of the six countries.
IITA has dedicated time of some of its senior
scientists and has also hired assistants to deliver
specific project outputs. In addition, CRS retains
funds that are available for sub-awards to additional
NGOs, community-based organizations and other partners,
to implement specific elements of the workplans.
Partners will be invited to prepare concept notes by
early August and full proposals to be approved and
funded in September. The goal is to get field
implementation fully underway by early October, when
the next major planting season begins in much of the
region. An Advisory Steering Committee was set up to
review activities for quality, to maintain a coherent
regional approach, and to keep the participating
institutions and key advisors up to date. This
committee will operate virtually, by e-mail and
telephone, to keep transactions costs low.


Monitoring and Evaluation

¶12. One of the key objectives of the C3P is to
monitor and document how a coordinated regional
response to regional problems affecting vulnerable
farmers can add value to interventions on a bilateral
basis, and by emergency response agencies. The
Monitoring and Evaluation plan was discussed at the
workshop, and will be completely elaborated before
field activities begin. The results of food security
surveys and the GIS mapping will already have been
published by that time.

Participation

¶13. A total of 75 people participated in the
workshop, representing the following institutions:

USAID Missions: USAID/East Africa, EGAT, Rwanda, DRC,
Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania,

Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA):
Secretariat in Lusaka

SIPDIS

Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in
East and Central Africa (ASARECA): Regional Network
Coordinators for cassava, bananas, and Policy Analysis.

Agricultural Research Institute for the Great Lakes
(IRAZ): Director

Danish Seed Health Center: Expert

Catholic Relief Services (CRS): Regional offices in
Nairobi and Kinshasa, representatives from all six
country offices

International Institute for Tropical Agriculture
(IITA): Deputy Director, senior scientists on cassava
and bananas, economics, and GIS

Rwanda: International Services for National
Agricultural Research (ISNAR), Extension, World Food
Programme(WFP),World Vision International (WVI),
CARITAS.

Uganda: National Agricultural Research Organization
(NARO), Ministry of Agriculture, National Agricultural
Advisory and Development Services (NAADS) (extension
service provider), World Vision, EcoTrust (a national
NGO). DANIDA, UNFEE (farmers? association)

Kenya: KARI (agricultural research), REFSO (national
NGO),Agricultural Cooperative Development International
and Volunteers in Overseas Cooperative Assistance
(ACDI/VOCA) (private sector)

Tanzania: ARD (agricultural research), Catholic Diocese

DRC: INERA (Institut National pour l'Etude et la
Recherche Agronomiques (DR-Congo), SENASEM (seed agency),
Graben University, SECID (U.S.-based agency involved in
cassava multiplication), Food for the Hungry
International (FHI) and CARITAS

Burundi was unable to send any national representatives
to this workshop, but CRS and the USAID office followed
up a week later with an in-country meeting of key
stakeholders

For further information contact:

Peter Ewell (pewell@usaid.gov) or Michael Hall
(mhall@usaid.gov), USAID/East Africa
John Peacock, Chief of Party, CRS (johnp473@yahoo.com),
or Steve Walsh, Deputy Chief of Party, CRS
(swalsh@crscomgo.org or ngoma67@yahoo.com)

RANNEBERGER

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111927Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6325
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 5263
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 7716
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 2646
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 4190
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 6396
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5583
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 5677

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001659

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL INTERNAL POLITICS UPDATE, 7-11 AUGUST 2006.

REF: BRASILIA 1441 AND PREVIOUS

¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The Parliamentary Inquiry Committee (CPI)
investigating the so-called "blood suckers" (Sanguessugas)
corruption scandal issued a report on August 9 that implicated 69
federal deputies and three federal senators, calling for their
removal from politics. The scale of the accusations, 12 percent of
the congress, is unprecedented in Brazil, even following a year of
scandalous revelations of large-scale corruption. Corruption was
also the subject of intense questioning directed at President Lula
on a 10 August TV Globo interview. Contradicting earlier
presidential statements, Lula claimed he fired former ministers Jose
Dirceu and Antonio Palocci for their alleged roles in earlier
scandals. END SUMMARY.

------------- -----------------------------------
SANGUESSUGAS: CPI ACCUSES 69 DEPUTIES, 3 SENATORS
------------- -----------------------------------

¶2. (U) The preliminary report of the Parliamentary Inquiry
Committee implicated 69 federal deputies and three federal senators
in the "Sanguessugas" corruption scandal, which involved payments to
legislators to support overpriced purchase contracts for ambulances
and medical supplies. The scheme involved a ten percent kickback for
congressmen who introduced the purchases as amendments to the
federal budget. The CPI called for the removal of the 72 from
politics ("cassacao"); the CPI's findings are not yet final and are
subject to further investigation. Eighteen legislators under
suspicion were exonerated. The vast majority of the accused, 63 of
72, are from parties in the governing coalition, especially the
Liberal Party (PL) and the Brazilian Labor Party (PTB), while the
other 9 are from the opposition. One member of President Lula's
party, the Workers Party (PT), was accused. Several of the accused
are members of the so-called evangelical bloc; Band News said thirty
percent are evangelicals. The accused constitute 12 percent of the
congress. Many of these same parties were implicated in the
"mensalao" scandal (i.e., the systematic monthly bribery of
legislators by PT operatives in exchange for votes) that rocked
Lula's PT party and governing coalition over the past year.

¶3. (U) The CPI's findings were based largely on the testimony of
Luiz Antonio Vedoin, one of the owners of the Planam firm that sold
the ambulances, as well as telephone wiretaps and bank records
showing payments to legislators. The total amount of payoffs is
around 9 million reais (about USD 4 million); the CPI said the
largest amount to an individual was about a third of the total, paid
to Lino Rossi (Progressive Party, of Mato Grosso state.) The CPI
said 19 of the accused received over 100,000 reais each (about USD
45,000).

¶4. (U) The next step involves a congressional decision on each
case, leading either to exoneration or expulsion from congress and a
permanent ban on political activity by that individual. This will
probably happen in 2007, during the next congress.

------------------------------------ -------------------
LULA CONTRADICTS EARLIER STATEMENTS: "I FIRED DIRCEU AND PALOCCI"
------------------------------------ -------------------
¶5. (SBU) President Lula appeared on TV Globo's Jornal Nacional, the
main evening news program, on August 10 in TV Globo's series of
candidate interviews. Globo anchors William Bonner and Fatima
Bernardes questioned him so aggressively on corruption scandals that
Lula could scarcely talk about anything else, staying on the
defensive and unable to control the interview. The most significant
revelation in the interview was Lula's claim that he fired his
former head of the civil household Jose Dirceu and Finance Minister
Antonio Palocci for their roles in earlier scandals. Previously,
Lula and the presidential palace (Planalto) had maintained that both
had resigned. (Comment: It is not clear whether Lula sought to show
himself in a new, decisive light, or was so befuddled by the
aggressive questions that he misspoke and inadvertently contradicted
himself. End comment.)

-------------------------------
LULA UP, ALCKMIN DOWN, IN POLLS
-------------------------------

¶6. (SBU) Two major national polls this week showed President Lula
increasing his lead over opponent Geraldo Alckmin, and gains by far
left candidate Heloisa Helena. Others are in single digits. The
Datafolha polling firm reported that Lula's lead widened from 16 to
23 points over Alckmin since a poll conducted in mid-July, from 44
percent to 47 percent, while Alckmin slipped from 28 to 24 percent
of first round voting intentions. Far left candidate Heloisa Helena

BRASILIA 00001659 002 OF 002


went from 10 to 12 percent in the same period, essentially unchanged
since it is within the margin of error for the poll. The same poll
showed a second round match-up between Lula and Alckmin resulting in
a 54 to 37 percent victory for Lula. A poll by CNT/Sensus this week
showed Lula at 47.9 percent, Alckmin at 19.7, and Helena at 9.3
percent. Lula's lead over Alckmin in the Datafolha poll is greater
than that of Fernando Henrique Cardoso over Lula at the same time
before the 1998 elections, according to Folha de Sao Paulo.
Television campaign advertising is permitted beginning only next
week, and since most voters get their information from TV, the
relative positions of candidates could shift, depending on the
effectiveness of their TV messages. However, at this early stage,
there is a growing body of polling indicating that Lula could win a
first round victory.

SOBEL

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 4775
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1482
RUEHLGB/AMEMBASSY KIGALI 4467
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 1763

UNCLAS NAIROBI 003394

SIPDIS

AIDAC

SIPDIS

AID/W FOR JEFF HILL, SUSAN BRADLEY, TOM HOBGOOD, ROBERT
BERTRAM, ERIC WITTE, JULIA ESCALONA
USAID/NAIROBI FOR SHAYKIN, AFLEMING, SOBUKOSIA
USAID/KAMPALA FOR MISSION DIRECTOR, LHOSTETTER,
SBAMULSEWA
USAID/DAR ES SALAAM FOR MISSION DIRECTOR, TMCANDREWS,
SFONDRIEST
USAID/KIGALI FOR MISSION DIRECTOR, RWASHBURN, TKARERA
USAID/BUJUMBURA FOR RLUNEBERG, RQUINBY, LPAVLOVIC
USAID/KINSHASA FOR MISSION DIRECTOR, VMMOBULA
USAID/EAST AFRICA FOR NESTES, DGORDON, JMYER, GPLATT,
PEWELL, MHALL, DATTEBERRY, DKINYUA, CANDERSON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PREF SOCI UN XA
SUBJECT: REPORT ON A REGIONAL PLANNING MEETING CROP
CRISIS CONTROL PROJECT (C3P) KIGALI, RWANDA JUNE 13 -
15, 2006

Summary

1.The second stage of implementation of the Crop
Crisis Control Project (C3P) was launched with a
regional planning workshop in Kigali, Rwanda June 13-
15, 2006. The goal of this activity, supported by the
Famine Prevention Fund, is a regionally coordinated
response to the catastrophic spread of two serious
diseases of staple food crops, Cassava Mosaic Virus
disease (CMD) and Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) in six
countries of East and Central Africa. The meeting
brought together over 70 people from seven USAID
missions and implementing partners. They agreed on
procedures to get a wide range of activities going on
the ground as quickly and efficiently as possible.
Participants reviewed the current state of knowledge
about the two epidemics, and about what technologies
are available for combating them. Past and current
activities in each of the countries were reviewed. A
system was discussed which combines household surveys
and geographic information systems to targeting areas
where the diseases are likely to tip significant
numbers of households into food insecurity. Too often
programs that distribute plantings in response to an
emergency have not proven to be sustainable, so better
methods and more sustainable approaches for the
distribution of disease- resistant cassava cuttings
were discussed. Approaches for slowing or even stopping
the spread of banana wilt were reviewed. The country
teams worked together to lay the foundation for their
workplans, and were given clear instructions for
completing those documents. The meeting successfully
defined the scope of the project and the procedures
that will be used to organize the activities of all of
the partners into a single framework. The basic
outline of the monitoring, evaluation and reporting
system was developed. An Advisory Steering Committee
that will work virtually was put in place.

Background

¶2. The Crop Crisis Control Project (C3P) is a
regional activity supported with $5 million from the
Famine Prevention Fund, a U.S. Government facility set
up to encourage innovative, focused, short-term
programs that can reduce food insecurity and build
effective linkages between emergency relief and
development assistance. It has been organized within
the framework of the Presidential Initiative to End
Hunger in Africa (IEHA). The activity is managed by
USAID/East Africa, in cooperation with EGAT, AFR/SD,
Food for Peace, OFDA and the bilateral USAID Missions
in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Limited Presence
program in Burundi.

¶3. C3P has been organized under the auspices of
COMESA (the Common Market for Eastern and Southern
Africa) and ASARECA (the Association for Strengthening
Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa).
Catholic Relief Services (CRS) has been awarded a grant
to implement regionally coordinated, well targeted
activities in all six countries. Their largest partner
with a sub-award is the International Institute of
Tropical Agriculture (IITA), and together they are
leading a network of regional associations and
agricultural institutions, national agricultural
research organizations, NGOs and local implementing
partners. Through separate but coordinated ?fast-track?
mechanisms, existing partners of the bilateral missions
in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and the DRC are
participating. In principle, fast-track resources are


made available to facilitate bridging between specific
bilateral mission supported activities with new C3P
activities. In Uganda, a total of US$127,000 were
added to the existing project with the Agricultural
Productivity Program (APEP) to continue campaigns
against the spread of Banana wilt disease and
distribution of mosaic free, cassava planting
materials. In Rwanda, US$60,000 was added to the
Agricultural Technology Development and Transfer
Project (ATDT) to bridge mission supported activities
combating the spread of both Cassava Mosaic and Banana
Bacterial Wilt in selected regions. In the DRC, a
total of US$117,375 was added to a mission supported
project with IITA, focused on improving rural
livelihoods through the rehabilitation of banana and
cassava production in Eastern Congo. During this
period, most of the fast-track activities have been
concluded, setting the stage for the start of the
formal work plan of the C3P program. The sum of these
activities will strengthen regional and national
mechanisms to deliver agricultural technologies and
knowledge to rural stakeholders, reduce the impact of
these plant diseases on the food insecurity of
vulnerable households, while aiding famers to speed
agricultural recovery. The end date of the project is
September 30, 2007.

¶4. Cassava Mosaic Virus Disease has been recognized
in East Africa for more than a century. Rapid spread of
a new and more severe strains of the disease were
reported in north-central Uganda in the late 1980s.
This has since expanded into a ?pandemic? over a vast
area of East and Central Africa, with devastating
effects on cassava production. The zone currently
affected now covers all of Uganda, Western Kenya,
Southern Sudan, Eastern DRC, North-western Tanzania,
all of Burundi and all of Rwanda (apart from the
Cyangugu region). It is arguably the greatest single
threat to staple food production in the sub-region. A
recent assessment estimates the area affected at 2.6
million hectares, with losses totaling 22 million
metric tons annually. A common response of farmers has
been to abandon cassava cultivation. As cassava is the
primary food staple in much of the affected area, food
security has been drastically undermined. Virtually all
of the varieties cultivated by farmers have proven to
be susceptible. But new, resistant varieties have been
selected by IITA in collaboration with national
scientists, distributed by EARRNET, ASARECA?s cassava
network, and have been multiplied and distributed. IITA
has been supported in the past by USAID?s Office of
Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA), to document the
epidemiology of CMD and to organize the multiplication
and distribution of disease-resistant planting material
in collaboration with multiple partners. The C3P will
speed up this process, as well as target distribution
to areas most vulnerable to food insecurity.

¶5. Banana Wilt is caused by the bacterium Xanthomonas
campestris pv. musacearum (Xcm). It was initially
reported about 90 years ago in Ethiopia, as a disease
of a close relative of the banana called Enset. By
1974, the disease had jumped to bananas in Ethiopia.
Then in 2001, outbreaks were reported in Uganda and the
DRC. In five years wilt has spread rapidly through all
the central districts of Uganda and has moved into the
major banana producing districts in the western and
southwestern parts of the country. Likewise, in the
DRC, the infected area has increased substantially to
cover large parts of Masisi District in North Kivu
Province. In Rwanda, two infected sites were observed
in the Cyanzarwe district of Gisenyi Province in


October 2005. In Tanzania the disease is spreading
rapidly from the Ugandan border through the western
districts where bananas are a major staple food. BXW
causes early ripening and rotting of fruits, even in
the absence of other apparent external signs. As it
progresses, it causes wilting and the death of the
plant. Second crops sprouted from infected mats are
severely diseased and often wilt before producing
bunches or produce bunches with rotten fruits. Once
established in a locality, the disease can spread
rapidly up to 70 km per year and is difficult to
eradicate. Without proper management, yields in
affected areas go down to virtually zero.

¶6. Bananas are extremely important for food security
and as a source of household income in much of the
Great Lakes region. Over 20 million people depend on
them as a main source of livelihood. They are grown
both as a staple food crop and for income generation
mainly through brewing and regional export of both
cooking and dessert bananas. Bananas also protect soil
against erosion and leaching, both through their
massive root system and their aerial leaf cover,
especially in the hilly terrain found in much of the
Great Lakes Region. The components for a regional
response have been developed by ASARECA?s Banana
Research Network for Eastern and Southern Africa
(BARNESA), working in collaboration with the Ugandan
national research institute (NARO) and scientists from
the International Network for the Improvement of Banana
and Plantain (INIBAP), IITA and other international and
national institutions. Control measures for banana wilt
have included public awareness campaigns that inform
farmers about the symptoms and teach disease control
practices, including the removal of the male bud to
restrict spread by insects, destruction of infected
plants and the repeated sterilization of infected tools
to prevent spread from plant to plant.

Targeting the Vulnerable

¶7. Small-scale, low income farmers in the project
area ? Uganda, Western Kenya, Western Tanzania, Rwanda,
Burundi, and the Eastern DRC - depend heavily on a
small number of staple food crops, of which cassava and
bananas are among the most important. There are many
causes of chronic food insecurity in these areas, tied
both to uncertainty in supplies (availability), low-
incomes and high and fluctuating food prices in poorly
functioning markets that restrict what consumers can
afford to buy (access). Food utilization patterns have
major effects on micro-nutrient malnutrition and other
qualitative factors. The effects of civil conflicts,
periodic droughts and a range of other factors have
provoked emergency food shortages in the DRC, Burundi,
parts of Uganda and scattered areas elsewhere in the
zone.

¶8. The C3P is designed to help partners prepare for
and mitigate the effects of the two diseases, so that
sudden declines in the productivity of these crops will
not tip large numbers of people into food insecurity.
The impacts of biotic stresses on food insecurity have
not previously been documented systematically.
Representatives of IITA and ASARECA?s Foodnet program
explained how they are refining and applying methods to
help the C3P partners target interventions where they
will have the greatest impact, and to document the
process. The extent and causes of food insecurity will
be assessed, building on household surveys, as well as
secondary data from multiple sources. IITA?s geographic
information systems laboratory is pulling these results


together with land-use maps developed by the FAO?s
AfriCover project, satellite imagery, data on the
distribution of cassava and bananas data on the
incidence and severity of the two diseases and data on
the distribution of population. The resulting maps will
help the C3P partners target interventions, and to
monitor their effects. In areas where severe conditions
have triggered interventions by emergency agencies,
there will be many opportunities for C3P partners to
cooperate with programs working with food aid,
nutrition, etc.

Demand-driven Approaches to Disseminating Planting
Material

¶9. For a number of years, Catholic Relief Services
has been accumulating experience with Seed Fairs, a
system for providing vouchers to vulnerable farmers
with which they purchase seed from other farmers within
the areas where they live. This market-based approach
has shown clear advantages, compared to the wide scale
distribution of free seeds and tools to the victims of
disasters and the chronically food insecure. Food Fairs
provide an emergency subsidy on the demand side, rather
than on supply, and encourage the revitalization of
local systems of production and small-scale trade. The
C3P project will adapt these methods to systems for the
multiplication and distribution of cassava stakes and
banana suckers, which are much bulkier and more
perishable than grain or bean seeds and which can
themselves spread the very diseases that the project is
designed to control. It was agreed that the C3P
partners will constantly evaluate their systems of
multiplication and distribution to tailor subsidies to
overcome specific bottlenecks and to encourage market
transactions.

Getting Ahead of the Front as Banana Wilt Spreads

¶10. The partners working on BXW will build on the
experience that has been built up in Uganda over the
past few years. In areas as yet unaffected, partners
will mobilize local communities to form task forces to
mobilize community organizations, NGOs and extension
agents to teach farmers to recognize and prepare for
the disease. As the disease spreads into frontline
areas, the first approach will be the aggressive
eradication of pockets of infestation. Programs will
train trainers, who will move out into the communities
to teach farmers the cultural practices needed to save
their bananas. In endemic zones, where farmers will see
the disastrous impact of the disease, the focus will be
on intensive de-budding and where necessary,
destruction of affected plants. The clean planting
material of relatively ?wilt-escaping? varieties will
be distributed (no resistant varieties have yet been
identified).

Development of Workplans and Opportunities for Sub-
awards

¶11. The C3P is supported by the Famine Prevention
Fund as a focused, short-term intervention. This means
that all of the partners are operating under heavy
pressure to finalize their workplans and get activities
moving on the ground. CRS has hired a Chief of Party, a
Deputy who is also in charge of monitoring and
evaluation, and managers in each of the six countries.
IITA has dedicated time of some of its senior
scientists and has also hired assistants to deliver
specific project outputs. In addition, CRS retains
funds that are available for sub-awards to additional


NGOs, community-based organizations and other partners,
to implement specific elements of the workplans.
Partners will be invited to prepare concept notes by
early August and full proposals to be approved and
funded in September. The goal is to get field
implementation fully underway by early October, when
the next major planting season begins in much of the
region. An Advisory Steering Committee was set up to
review activities for quality, to maintain a coherent
regional approach, and to keep the participating
institutions and key advisors up to date. This
committee will operate virtually, by e-mail and
telephone, to keep transactions costs low.

Monitoring and Evaluation

¶12. One of the key objectives of the C3P is to
monitor and document how a coordinated regional
response to regional problems affecting vulnerable
farmers can add value to interventions on a bilateral
basis, and by emergency response agencies. The
Monitoring and Evaluation plan was discussed at the
workshop, and will be completely elaborated before
field activities begin. The results of food security
surveys and the GIS mapping will already have been
published by that time.

Participation

¶13. A total of 75 people participated in the
workshop, representing the following institutions:

USAID Missions: USAID/East Africa, EGAT, Rwanda, DRC,
Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania,

Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA):
Secretariat in Lusaka

SIPDIS

Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in
East and Central Africa (ASARECA): Regional Network
Coordinators for cassava, bananas, and Policy Analysis.

Agricultural Research Institute for the Great Lakes
(IRAZ): Direcor

Danish Seed Health Center: Expert

Catholic Relief Services (CRS): Regional offices in
Nairobi and Kinshasa, representatives from all six
country offices

International Institute for Tropical Agriculture
(IITA): Deputy Director, senior scientists on cassava
and bananas, economics, and GIS

Rwanda: International Services for National
Agricultural Research (ISNAR), Extension, World Food
Programme(WFP),World Vision International (WVI),
CARITAS.

Uganda: National Agricultural Research Organization
(NARO), Ministry of Agriculture, National Agricultural
Advisory and Development Services (NAADS) (extension
service provider), World Vision, EcoTrust (a national
NGO). DANIDA, UNFEE (farmers? association)

Kenya: KARI (agricultural research), REFSO (national
NGO),Agricultural Cooperative Development International
and Volunteers in Overseas Cooperative Assistance
(ACDI/VOCA) (private sector)

Tanzania: ARD (agricultural research), Catholic Diocese

DRC: INERA (Institut National pour l'Etude et la
Recherche Agronomiques (DR-Congo), SENASEM (seed agency),
Graben University, SECID (U.S.-based agency involved in
cassava multiplication), Food for the Hungry
International (FHI) and CARITAS

Burundi was unable to send any national representatives
to this workshop, but CRS and the USAID office followed
up a week later with an in-country meeting of key
stakeholders

For further information contact:

Peter Ewell (pewell@usaid.gov) or Michael Hall
(mhall@usaid.gov), USAID/East Africa
John Peacock, Chief of Party, CRS (johnp473@yahoo.com),
or Steve Walsh, Deputy Chief of Party, CRS
(swalsh@crscomgo.org or ngoma67@yahoo.com)

HOOVER.